Who will United lose in the expansion draft today? Since Nelson and Stewart won't be chosen that leaves the list below: Forward: Thiago Martins Midfielders: Eliseo Quintanilla, Tim Lawson, Kevin Ara Defenders: Ezra Hendrickson Goalkeeper: Troy Perkins So who does United lose?
Here is the order that I see the draftable players in terms of who is most likely to be a Chivas or RSL player by the end of today: 1. Quintanilla = young (21) so he has a few years before he becomes a SI - also has been a productive left-sided player when he has not been hurt. He also was signing autographs for quite a while at the Cup celebration at RFK on Tuesday night - I think that he knows that he is a goner. He will be a Chivas Goat by the end of today. Chance of getting drafted = 99%. 2. Perkins = young, cheap goalie who has half of a season under his belt. Reason for not getting drafted - there are plenty of good goalies in the draft (some are cheap [Ring] - some as mid-range [Soon-to-be Goatboy Walker, Countess] - some are expensive [Brown, Meola]). I do not see either team drafting 2 goalies and Perkins does not fit the Chivas demographic. I think that Perkins is a RSL possibility if they are reasonably sure that they will get Keller (who will miss time next year for USMNT games and Perkins represents a good back-up option although Countess fits the same description although a bit more expensive as of now (although he may re-sign at a lower $ amount, plus Ellinger likes Countess from his US Youth days) - I am not sure if RSL will know that by today as Keller is currently on loan to Southampton which may help his chances of staying in England. If RSL drafts any of the current MLSers (i.e. Ring, Walker, Meola, Countess), I do not see Perkins getting drafted. Chance of getting drafted = 35%. 3. Hendrickson = reasonably priced, versatile player who can play center-back and outside defender/wingback, brings MLS Cup championship experience. He is one of the few centerbacks available in the draft (i.e. Pierce, Agoos, Llamosa) but I see Pierce being more draftable than EZ for a team like RSL due to age (RSL already has Kreis, Ekelund seems high on their list, Keller and/or Mathis may be headed there - they may not want too many older players on the team). Another player who does not fit the Chivas demographic. Chance of getting drafted = 35%. 4. Martins = big target forward who has not had much of a chance to do anything in MLS but is cheap and not too old (28). I doubt that RSL knows much about him and I am not sure of his Spanish skills for Chivas purposes. There are other draftable forwards (i.e. Selolwane, Washington, Nhleko, Simutenkov, Walker, Taylor, Testo) who are more likely to get drafted. Chances of getting drafted = 15%. 5. Nelsen = If there is nothing on the draft board in the later rounds, I can see one of the teams taking him just in case he can not get a deal done in January (if he signs overseas, he will likely be gone for more than 2 years so owning his MLS rights for that period will not be worth much). I assume that no allocation would be obtained by an expansion team drafting him or else DCU would have protected him (an allocation is worth more than Prideuax - the player who got protected when they decided to expose Nelsen). Nelsen's plan to move to England allowed Prideaux to stay in DC as Brandon would have been a RSL player otherwise (it would have been hard for them to pass up a average-priced left back who has won 2 MLS Cups). I still would not want to see him drafted by either team just in case his deals in England break down. Chance of getting drafted = 15%. 6. Lawson = while no one has really seen him play in the USA since his days at University of Washington, he is a American midfielder with pro experience (and there are not many players in the draft who fit that caetgory). If he had played just a little in this season, I could see him as more of a draftable possibility than he is. If RSL is looking to get a holding midfielder in the draft, Buete-CHI and Lawson are the choices. Buete might be more draftable (younger, former 1st round pick) but Chicago has more draftable players than any other team (Ring, Countess, Whitfield, Perez, Buete, Williams, and Selolwane are all real possibilities to be drafted and only 3 of them can get drafted) so Buete may be not able to be picked. Chance of getting drafted: 10%. 7. Ara = has not done anything in MLS to rise above any of the other players on the draftable list. Unless Ellinger attended a bunch of Harvard games, Ara will not get drafted. Chance of getting drafted = 2%. 8. Stewart = going to Netherlands to play and then retire. Drafting him would be an absolute waste of a pick. Chance of getting drafted = 1%. All in all, I think that DCU will survive this draft better than a lot of teams.
His chances for being drafted aren't great, but 2% is very low. You seem to forget that Rongen knows Ara very well. He's seen his few games, but more importantly he's seen him at practice and around the DC United organization. I put him on par with Lawson at a 10% chance or so.
If Q2 doesn't get picked I will be shocked. I think Ezra is the other guy who will go, a verstile vet who has won, I think he would be a good pick up for RSL. Perkins could be another guy who goes as he is young, cheap, and has shown he has pretty good potential (but I think he will be our first guy taken back). Lawson could also be picked by RSL, if there is nobody else up there. I think that we would lose far more players if Rognen was coaching RSL...
- I'm noticing on many mock drafts goalkeepers going really high- often Walker going #1. I think this is looking at it wrong. Let's say Chivas does want Walker- a fair assumption IMO, but I seriously doubt that they HAVE to have him. The only two reasons they take him #1 are 1) they think RSL will take him first (which is doubtful) and 2) RSL or Chivas will take a metro player first AND metro will then pull back Walker. I think this is also dubious. Because of this and the fact that there are a bunch of GK's out there, I seriously doubt that Perkins will get drafted. His main value is that he's cheap, but then again there are GK's in the A-league and in college who can do what he did last year. - The big wild card for us is how much Rongen will lean on his knowledge of United scrubs, specifically Martins, Lawson, and Ara. (I figure that both teams know Quintanilla.) Does he really think that this trio is better than other sources? Remember that he and his team have done more work than we have on their assessments. -Nelsen won't be any kind of bust in England. Because of that neither team will draft him in hopes he flops in two years. -I agree with Zman Gunner- DCU will survive this draft better than several other teams.
I think most of us would predict that Q2 will go first. If that's the case who do you think United will pull back? My guess is Martins.
Personally, I think he's kind of greasy looking. But I don't hold that against him as a player. But if the Kevin Ara soul patch look works for you, then who am I question.
I think all our players are dreamy. By extension, all players for other teams are slack-jawed, mouth-breathing troglodytes. Except if they played for us once, in which case they're simply misguided. It was interesting watching Ara with his parents on Sunday. Soul patch or not, it's hard to be cool when you're being watched by someone who used to change your diapers.
I wonder if it won't be Perkins. We've got Thompson waiting in the wings to fill the oft-injured target forward spot. I know the prevailing thought for this draft is that goalkeepers are a-dime-a-dozen in this league, but after the way Troy acquitted himself this season, I'd feel more comfortable with him as backup than a rookie, especially if Nicky's injuries flare up again. Also, two goalkeepers with the ability to start makes for good trade bait if necessary.
Another aspect to consider is that Ara is from SoCal. By no means will this be a major driver in selecting him (or not) but maybe something Chivas would consider.
And I seem to recall that he knows Spanish. All in all, his chances of being drafted by Ellinger are close to zero. But Rongen might go for it.
Chivas has to be worried about their potential height disadvantage, so I think they'd want him. They are also pursuing Orlando Perez probably for the same reason.
1. Here's why Perkins has a high chance of getting picked: if you're RSL or Chivas, do you use a draft pick or a discovery pick to acquire a GK? Or do you save those for field players and P-40/discovery slots and pick up Perkins? There are only two ways I see Perkins not getting picked: (a) a team decides they don't mind spending a lot of money for a backup GK. In which case, they take Countess or Jordan or Garlick ahead of him. Or... (b) there is another GK on the board making MLS minumum that they feel is better than Perkins (for instance, someone like Scott Vallow or Henry Ring who both make low salaries though not as low as Perkins). I agree I don't see GKs being taken in the first or second rounds. But I think both teams will take two GKs in this draft. And Perkins has got to be very attractive as your second keeper. As for how DCU fares, I think we'll likely lose 3 players. Obviously I could be wrong here. Martins, Lawson, Ara may just be too much of an unknown for everyone. But the deal is: our team played well (which by extension, means most of our players played well) as opposed to SJ or Metro or Colorado. If you exclude Earnie and Nellie (b/c they aren't going to be in MLS in 2005) than everyone on the Board for us is very cheap. And that's important b/c most of these teams aren't looking to get their top scorer or A-mid in this draft. As Steve Pestorino with RSL said, he's looking for 3-5 people who can contribute next year. That means, these teams are trying to find maybe one real steal and then guys who are cheap, will make the roster and could be a decent #12 or #13 or #14th player. If they get 2 or 3 starters from this draft most of them would view that as a highly successful draft.
If the teams do take two keepers each then agree Perkins will be high up on their lists. i just don't think that they will do that though. But let's see at 4 and get back to this. I forget about Thompson making Martins less needed by DCU- if that's the case. Who knows. What I see though is that DCU has a starting and backup a-mid (Gomez and Adu) two starting wingers with possibly two backups (Kovalenko and Gros backed by Quaranta and Adu) and two forwards with two main backups (Moreno and Esky backed by Adu and Quaranta). (I figure that Q2 is gone.) This means that Q1 and Adu are counted on for too many positions and we need more backup somewhere, most likely the wings. It would be interesting to know management's thinking on this. What do you think Joe or anyone else? PS Ara is dreamy.
1. Q2 2. Hendrickson (if he's not pulled back after Q2) 3. Perkins (if he's not pulled back after EZ) All three have shown real (not ReAL ) value to DC. I honestly don't see Ara, Lawson, or Martins (severely damaged goods) being chosen. But what do I know? I thought that RH would be a great coach and PN would stink up the joint!
When does this little shindig start? I couldn't find it anywhere on the MLS site and am too lazy to go back through the posts on the huge expansion draft thread to find it.