HAHA! Yeah, apparently there are only two teams in the Olympic Tournament. Unfortunately I have to say that our chances of qualifying are greatly diminished without our Euro players. With them, I'd almost say we were a lock.
I think that is a major overstatement. Canada's roster is peppered with NCAA players. None of Canada's players are as good as Donovan or Beasley. Both of these facts ought to give you cause for at least a little concern.
If Canada had their full team for this tourney, "lock" might have been a bit of an overstatement, but I don't think it would be a stretch to say they would have been one of the favourites. It is an easy thing to say of course, and we'll never really know for sure. However, one of the reasons why the roster is peppered with so many NCAA players now is because a whole slew of European-based players (as mentioned by ToppDogg) are absent due to club conflicts. Iain Hume & Mike Klukowski are missing the entire tournament, while Julian De Guzman is only going to play a single match, the first one against Honduras, while a couple of other useful Euro-based players (Terry Dunfield & Maycoll Canizalez) will also be missing the entire tourney. Incidentally, I would say that De Guzman & Tam Nsaliwa (who's status is in some doubt as he is recovering from an injury) are as good as Donovan & Beasley, respectively. De Guzman is a different sort of player than Donovan, but he is excelling at a higher level of play than either US player mentioned, whereas Tam is playing regularly at a level that is just as good & has been able to match Beasely when they have gone head to head. I would also note that Atiba Hutchinson seemed to be able to match up with Bobby Convey quite well when they have gone head to head (and both were named to the FIFA U20 All-star team), and while they are different styles of striker, you could argue that the absence of Hume & Casey cancel each other out as well. Overall I would expect that the US & Canada at full strength at this level would be about equal, with the US perhaps having an edge between the pipes. With the notable absences on Canada's team, I'm not so sure the two teams will balance out as they might have done. I know the US is missing a few key players, but Canada has been hit worse, and the absence of Hume, Klukowski, De Guzman & possibly (due to his iffy health) Nsaliwa are huge holes - with the latter two alone, that is basically, the equivalent of taking Donovan & Beasley off the US roster.
Captain Canuck: I would agree with your analysis completely, and would only add that another US advantage is bench strength after the first team players, so missing players hurts Canada more than the US or Mexico.
My picks (Just like four years ago): the two favorites - USA and Mexico. Sometimes the favorites don't win.
You are probably right, though I guess we'll see for sure when the Canadian depth gets put to the test with the absence of so many key players. We've dipped quite a bit into our U20 team rather than going for older A-league based players like Ngon or Mesanovic. I guess the hope is that the youngsters will continue on the high they've been on since the success at UAE.
I think Donovan and Beasley are very good players, but de Guzman is one of the top ranked midifielders in the Bundesliga. Are Beasley and Donovan better than d'Allessandro?? I'd be hard pressed to say they are, yet de Guzman is ranked on a par with the Argentine player for this season's Bundesliga performances. On the other hand, I would be hard pressed to say that 'Canada was a lock' in any case.
To each their own. But how can de Guzman be one of the top midfielders in the Bundesliga when everytime I see Hannover play, he is at left back? I think time will show Canadian opinion about de Guzman versus Donovan to be an embarassing opinion, but we shall see. One other point of view to consider. Donovan has been the best player for the full US National Team which has completely outperformed the Canadian team in recent years. At the same time, De Guzman has not been an impact player for said Canadian team. How is it possible that an unimportant player on a weaker team is better than the best player on a better team?
He was used as cover for Hannover at left back, but has since been moved back to his natural midfield role. And yes, he has been consistently rated by kicker as one of the best midfielders in the Bundesliga. Why is it that Convey is supposed to be one of the best young midfielders in the US yet every time I see the USMNT team play, he is at left back? Comparing Donovan to DeGuzman is akin to comparing Ronaldo to Beckham (ie. they're very different players). The only reason Canadian fans seem to do this is because De Guzman is our best young player, while Donovan is your best young player. Again, apples and oranges. Donovan reached a very high level quickly, while De Guzman's development was more linear. So while Donovan was able to step into the USMNT setup right fairly early, De Guzman took more time to establish himself within the Canadian system. To say he is 'unimportant' to Canada is completely uninformed. I think in this upcoming WC cycle you'll see a lot more of De Guzman, and rightfully so. He has been excelling in the Bundesliga, and in recent games with Canada has been one of the best (if not the best) players on the pitch.
As for the left back comment, he started the first few games this season at left back but once Kleber was in the rotation has been a fixture at defensive mid and doing very well. And that praise is based on his performances. He is currently ranked 12th overall in the entire Bundesliga among midfielders and was picked by kicker magazine as a player to watch at the end of the first half of the season. Your last paragraph is obviously bait but I'll take it. To say that the US National Team has completely outperformed the Cdn team has absolutley fcuk all to do with the comments about de Guzman as the previous coach never even played de Guzman in any meaningful games until last season. The last time the USA and Canada had anything resembling a full team matchup was in the next to last Gold Cup where Canada and the USA drew 0-0 in the semifinals (USA went through on PKs). Julian de Guzman did not get on the field for that game, rode the pine thanks to Holger Osieck. I will admit the USA has outperformed Canada lately, but don't blame de Guzman for that, as he was hardly a favourite of the last coach. The cast surrounding de Guzman is much weaker than that surrounding Donovan. I suspect de Guzman will be moving from Hannover to a much bigger club over the next season or so. Don't blame him for Canada's ineptitude in the past please. We have many good young players coming up and they have played the USA dead even at their age levels. We'll see what the future holds.
It should also be mentioned that club conflicts have played a part in seeing less of De Guzman in a Canadian uniform over the past two years, a problem that Donovan hasn't really had to contend with since he doesn't play in Europe. As an example, Julian missed the 2003 Gold Cup so that he could stay at Hannover & cement his starting spot for the upcoming season. The fact that Canada's U23 coach is willing to use a roster spot for De Guzman just so that he can play one game (and just a day after flying in from Germany) is probably an indicator how important De Guzman is to this Canadian team. If new coach Frank Yallop views De Guzman as being "unimportant" for the upcoming WC qualifiers, I think just about every Canadian fan will be shocked & disappointed and will be quickly calling for Yallop's head - to say the least.
I stand corrected. I look forward to seeing him play dmid. Well, I guess it is how you define "best." According to Kicker, I found 14 midfielders, including D'Allesandro, who have better overall Kicker ratings. That would make DeGuzman no better than 15th. Still good, but "best?" I guess it depends on the definition. Secondly, Kicker ratings completely suck -- IMHO. But if they help you avoid watching games and making a decision, feel free. If I argued that Convey was one of the best attacking central midfielders in MLS, that would be a worthless argument since he has not played that position in MLS. Like Convey, De Guzman could be a great midfielder even if his club position was different. But I couldn't make the argument based on his club play at the position if he hadn't played his position. Of course, De Guzman actually plays the position you were talking about, so this whole point is a big waste of time. Yes it is hard to make this comparison, but value is value and a discerning eye can make these comparisons. Donovan is actually our best player, period, young or old, or at least one of them. Well he has never played in any critical matches for Canada, so I can't see how he has previously been important. Maybe in the future, but not so far. And since Canada has been a weaker side, I can't understand why De Guzman has taken more time to establish himself than Donovan did. Could be.
As CanuckFan stated, JDG was horribly misused by Osieck, who preferred to go with guys like Nick Dasovic (a 35 yr old A-Leaguer) and Richard Hastings (a non-starter in the Dutch 2nd division) in the midfield over JDG. This was not limited to JDG, as Osieck deemed players such as Fernando Aguiar (a regular starter with Benfica) and Paul Peschisolido (striker at Sheffield United) to be not as good as some of the baffling choices he had pencilled in for the Canadian nats. I suspect Yallop will be a little better at using the right players (not just the "loyal" ones), and that includes DeGuzman.
Oh, be fair. Dasovic was playing in the Scottish Premier League at the time and Hastings used to play, some anyway, in the Austrian first division. By Canadian standards, those are respectable leagues. OK, Yallop's history judging talent is pretty darn good. BTW, I do not mean to imply that I think the US is a lock and Canada has no chance. Anything can happen in this tourney, including losing to Panama. My comments are in support of my opinion that the Canadian first choice Under 23 team is less talented relative to the US than the Under 20 team was and that the first-choice Candaian team could not be considered a lock. Hopefully, we can resolve this at the Olympics with both sets of first-choice squads.
I'm not touching your "By Cdn standards, those are respectable leagues". Sounds like another shot. The statement I was disputing was this: " ... None of Canada's players are as good as Donovan or Beasley. ...." which from my point of view is pure b*u*l*l*s*h*i*t*. Our players in the same age bracket have had success against those two players and have never been outclassed. Our last U20s (2001) beat your US U20s just as our current class (2003) did. I am in no way arguing that Canada is a lock to go through the Olympic qualifying, as they aren't.
Go ahead and touch it. My point is simply that it is not unusual for Canadian Nat players to play in leagues of that caliber. No this is what is called an opinion. My reasons are as follows. I have seen De Guzman, Hume and Hutchinson play. I know that Donovan has an actual contract with Bayer Leverkusen and Portsmouth wanted him on loan. Even Bobby Convey who is miles and miles below Donovan, signed a contract with an EPL team. Finally, I have seen most of Canada's senior players play, including Tomas Radzinski numerous times. None of them are as good as Donovan IMHO. I can't believe that you are arguing who is the better individual players based on who won a friendly. Actually, I don't think that youth competition is particularily relevant to this debate, but to the extent it is, look at the actual meaningful games. For example, in the last under 20s both made the quarter finals and had chances to advance. On one hand, the US won its group while Canada scraped by in the group phase. In any event, to rely on the outcome of youth friendlies for your argument is absurd. P.S. I conceded that your last point that your most recent U20 class was equivalent to ours.
They weren't playing in the SPL or Austrian first division, respectively, in the middle of 2003, which is when Osieck last called both of them to the Gold Cup. And these are respectable leagues by any standards. Obviously the EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga and Spanish First Division are better, but no one's really disputing this point. Judging by his successes in MLS, this is definitely true. He'll need to translate that to the Canadian nat'l team, who, outside of the top 11, are very thin depth-wise. But this is nothing new. It was I who said our first-choice U-23 team would almost be a lock to qualify for the Athens Games, along with the US, who I'd consider to be the class of this age group within CONCACAF. I stand by this statement, but unfortunately we'll never know if I was rihgt or not. Unfortunately for Canada, the drop off from our top U-23 players to the 'B' squad is a rather considerable one, but again, this is nothing new for Canadian soccer. The only reason Mexico are favoured is because the tournament is in Mexico, since their youth teams have been nothing to write home about lately, IMHO. Agreed.
This comment would be more interesting if something had been at stake for the US in either of the games you mention. (In one case Canada had something at stake. That's because they had only managed a draw in an earlier game against Haiti.) Record at World Youth Cup Finals, 2001-03 USA 4 W, 1 D, 4 L. 14 GF, 11 GA, +3 Canada 2 W, 0 D, 6 L. 4 GF, 15 GA, -11