I wouldn't say Charlton have hit form, but Norwich and Plymouth are dropping like stones. Meanwhile my hornets are climbing the table and still have a game or two in hand on most clubs around them. The schedule is pretty easy for Watford down the stretch so I see them finishing above 18th. Teams I think that will go down: 22nd - Norwich City 23rd - Charlton Athletic 24th - Southampton Plymouth have a little bit too much quality in their side while I think Forest will survive, but barely. Southampton and Charlton are doomed I feel. Those teams who are getting promoted are rather obvious at this point: 1. Birmingham 2. Reading 3 via playoffs - Wolves Cardiff City could have a shout though.
The problem is you can never say that it's 'pretty obvious' who will take that third place playoff. You can be one of the 3 best teams all season in the championship but if you don't take one of the top two spots it's down to a one off game playoff final where anything can happen (key players injured/suspended, dodgy ref decision, etc.)... that's if u even make the final. I think the top two will be two of Brum/Reading/Wolves with maybe Cardiff City making a challenge if they win their games in hand. But that third spot is anyone's guess. Hell, Doncaster Rovers could sneak into 6th place and win the playoffs as far as we know.
You're right...it really is a crapshoot in the promotion playoffs. The 3rd place regular season finisher has earned promotion in each of the last 3 years, but prior to that, as you can see below, there was some deviation: Year - Promoted Team - Regular Season Finish 2007/08 - Hull City - 3rd place 2006/07 - Derby County - 3rd place 2005/06 - Watford - 3rd place 2004/05 - West Ham - 6th place 2003/04 - Crystal Palace - 6th place 2002/03 - Wolverhampton - 5th place 2001/02 - Birmingham - 5th place
Interesting that the last 3 playoff winners have been 3rd placed teams - that's the way it should be I guess. It does happen though that a team that has been challenging for the top two this time of the year drops into the playoff zone and a team that is midtable hits a sudden burst of form, pips into the playoffs and beats the higher seeded team. With that said, I almost always root for the 3rd placed team to beat the 4th placed team in the playoff final.
Indeed. Last season, Watford stormed out to a 9-point lead in the league in November or December, then hit a woeful run of form to close out the season, finishing 6th and backing in to the playoffs on goal differential. A certain team by the name of Hull City, meanwhile, started the Championship a little slower and then picked things up, such that by the end of the season, they'd climbed to 3rd and had the momentum of a runaway freight train (they carried that momentum into the Premiership this season). Hull completely dismantled Watford in the playoff semifinals, then went on to win the final at Wembley. It was a tale of two opposites. In the Championship, it definitely pays to peak later in the season than earlier, if you're looking to be in the 3rd-6th cluster of teams.
this year all of the top 3 are doing that! I would expect at least one of them to not even make the play-offs. Given how badly Reading are playing and Coppell's reluctance to change anything ever, it could well be us.
At the moment Wolves,Birmingham and Reading the teams who I think are going to get relegated are Norwich,Charlton and Southampton.
Reading won yesterday, keeping it in position to challenge for the auto-promotion slot. I have found these scenarios for the auto-promotion slot: Birmingham City will be auto-promoted if: They beat Reading, regardless of what Sheffield Utd. does They draw Reading, and Sheffield Utd. does not beat Crystal Palace Sheffield Utd. will be auto-promoted if They beat Crystal Palace, and Reading draws or beats Birmingham City Reading will be auto-promoted if They beat Birmingham City, and Sheffield Utd. loses or draws Crystal Palace If Reading wins, and Sheffield Utd. draws, it puts them in a draw with Birmingham City for points. Reading has the goal-differential advantage in that case. As for relegation, Barnsley saves itself with a draw, or any negative result by Norwich City. A loss by Barnsley and a win by Norwich City would mean a points draw, giving Norwich City the goal-differential advantage.