I've been looking for a good clearing house site on the current state of the various Senate races, but can't find one. Don't feel like searching for polls on each race individually. Anybody know how things are looking. Clearly, the Dems will pick up one seat in Ill, when Obama beats Keyes for the vacant GOP seat. Everything else being equal, that would put it in a 50/50 deadlock, right? What happens with the other races, many of which are vacant as well?
This is the best wrap-up I've seen of it. This only deals with seats that are hotly contested or that might change hands. for Instance, in Missouri, where Nancy Farmer has zilch chance against Kit Bond, they don't deal with that. This deals with 10 Seats: IL, GA, AK, SC, SD, OK, CO, FL, NC, LA Dems will pick up a seat in IL and GOP will in Georgia. So that's a wash. Every incumbent except for AK (Murkowski) and SD (Daschle) is safe. That gives the GOP a 48-44 with 8 seats (AK, SC, SD, OK, CO, FL, NC, and LA) in play. SC and OK are leaning republican. That would be 50-44 with 6 left to play, meaning GOP just needs one victory in 6 to maintain outright control. The remaining six seats (AK, SD, CO, FL, NC, and LA (because of it's system)) are too close to call. But, it is 99% that GOP will at least have a 50-50 split and pretty decent chance that they will have an outright majority (I say outright because we know Cheney will break the ties. )
OK leaning GOP? I think that is still, unbelievably, a possible pick-up by the Dems. They also don'tinclude Kentucy which has rapidly become a toss-up due to Bunning's senility. Latest poll I saw had it at a 5 point race. My predictions? IL- Dem GA- GOP AK - Dem SC - GOP SD - Dem OK - Dem CO - Dem FL - Rep NC - Rep LA - Rep Kentucy is the wild-card that could move Dems into a +1 seat situation.
I think it will end up being 51-49 (either way) or 50-50. Either way, you need 60 to get anything done in the Senate and that isn't happening unless the Rapture comes in the next 6 days.
If Bush wins and the Dems can get 51 in the Senate, that will be HUGE. Because then Bush won't be able to stonewall every one of his f'ups. Right now, Congress doesn't investigate anything Bush does. And we all know why. To me, as an American (not a Democrat) the perfect outcome would be a Dem. Senate, Kerry in the White House, and the GOP with a slight majority in the House, with DeLay purged like Newt in '98. If the sane GOPs can take control of the House, they'll keep Kerry in check. I guess the inverse would be good, too...sane GOPs controlling the Senate, and the Dems controlling the House, but it'd be a big shock if the Dems took the House.
I agree with your post with the exception of the investigations. Every thing every president does is investigated and investigated and investigated and... Well, you get my drift. One other thing, Kerry in the WH is not ideal. We don't have an ideal candidate, but one has now emerged. One who I agree with most of the time, one who I trust absolutely, and one for whom I can honestly say I've known him most of my life!! Vote for ME!!!!!!!!!!!!! We now return you to your regularly scheduled brouhaha.