Not that it should be a factor for the US Men (knock wood), but who is most likely to be the Asia #5 who Guatemala or Panama will face in the playoff?
Uzbekistan, or perhaps Bahrain. Kuwait and North Korea are the minnows. Japan and South Korea are the co-favorites, while Iran and Saudi Arabia should qualify comfortably (though you never know - both those teams are totally capable of imploding). The Uzbeks are a lot like Honduras. Good attackers, subpar defense, 15 minutes of brilliance followed by 15 minutes of cluelessness. Bahrain tends to be very good on the ball and very bad off of it, and is worse defensively than any of the Hex teams. If Guatemala takes the fourth spot I'd expect them to qualify for the finals (assuming they face Uzbek, Bahrain, Kuwait or NK - any of the others and they'd be prohibitive underdogs). If Panama or T&T snag the fourth spot they'd be underdogs against Uzbek and possibly Bahrain, but favored against the bottom two sides.
who wants to travel between guatemala city and any of the 5th place asian sides... we're talking about logistical nightmares..... guatemala city to USA airport to some ASIAN airport like Hong Kong, then on to the final destination.... of usa to heathrow then to the final one... talk about JET LAG!!
Could you imagine the nightmare of the USA having to play in this thing against Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc?
If the USA "implodes", I'd bet on their beating either Iran or Saudi Arabia, etc. Would the match necessarily be in Asia?
I don't mean to disrespect any of these teams, but would FIFA, AFC or CONCACAF have to pony up some money to make this series happen? Assuming each team needs to have 35 people travel (pretty conservative when you throw in trainers, coaches, officials, etc.), they get the per person price down to $5000, including lodging and meals, that's $175,000. I have to think that would be a substantial fraction of their yearly budget. 10% or more maybe. By reference, the only budget for a federation I could quickly find was the US in 2002: $30 million. But then again, the financial and emotional reward for any of these countries qualifying for the World Cup would be substantial.
who knows? from possible scheduling, saudi arabia or bahrain will end up playing north korea in the winter time, which, for those who don't know, watch a documentary on the korean war. the weather conditions might make playing football unbearable for the gulf nations. saying that, i think panama (know nothing about them, but the pick feels right) will be playing the uzbeks as north korea will pull the shocker, and knock out the saudis and bahrain.
Miami to Moscow is ~ $650 RT, Moscow to Tashkent is ~ $400 RT. That's far less than the Travelocity quote, huh?
The four teams that will qualify from Asia will be Japan, South Korea, Iran, and KSA. The fifth team will be between Uzb and Bahrain. I think Uzb will advance from this. The seedings have been arranged, and the teams will be put into groups on Dec 9. The first seeds go to Japan and South Korea. The second seeds go to Iran and KSA. The thrid seeds go to Bahrain and Uzb. The fourth seeds go to Kuwait and North Korea. Note that since China got elliminated, Iran get's the second seed. Note that teams in the same seed will not face one another.
That's a good guess at how it will play out, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see any team other than Japan or South Korea end up as the fifth place team. Uzbekistan or Bahrain could pull off a surprise and finish ahead of Iran or the Saudis. In that case, that team (Iran or Saudi Arabia) would most likely win the playoff between the third place teams and become the Asia #5. On the other hand, Kuwait or North Korea could pull a surprise and finish 3rd ahead of Uzbekistan or Kuwait and win the playoff and become the #5. So while my best guess would also be Uzbekistan, it's far from certain who will emerge as #5.
Extremely unlikely, I know, but could you imagine a USA-North Korea matchup for the final WC spot? And we think the Central American teams have hostile crouds. . .
It wouldn't even be a contest. We'd win out on pyshicality alone. Those NK players are probably the skinniest, shortest, most malnourised team in the world.
I don't think S Korea is a sure bet to go through. They may very well be the 5th team. Iran most likely will be at the top of their group.
I was referring to the political situation in NK rather than the merits of their team. Of course, now that I think about it, a game against Iran in Iran would probably be worse.
I know. I was just saying that even if they brought a crowd who was bordering on a riot, we'd still probably win by multiple goals. Now, Iran in Tehran is a completley different story.
I think the surprise team here is North Korea. They are an unknown quanity to even the Asian teams, so you never know. The one thing that is for sure is that the U.S. MUST avoid finishing in fourth. Can you imagine the security concerns if we had play to any of the following: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran? It would be a nightmare that needs to be avoided at all costs.
How many US fans would make the trip to Tehran or Pyongyang if the Nats had to play there? Even if you were a player, you'd have to consider being "injured" for these games, right? It's not unthinkable that a trip to Tehran could lead to a tragic end to the current US soccer boom. And I'm not talking about just missing the 2006 cup.
Most of these teams will not be flying commercial airlines. They will be flying charter aircraft (possibly from a commercial airline). The costs are much more tolerant then ponying up $8500 a piece for players/staff alone and then bringing equipment/cargo/insurance into the picture.
I was thinking about this myself. I would LOVE to make the trip to Pyongyang, though I am not sure we would be allowed as the North Korean government does not allow outsiders in. However, if they were to make an exception for this, I would absolutly go. I would not fear anything and would look forward to seeing a land that nobody gets to see. On the other hand is Tehran. I would love to go, but am not sure I would. While the experience of cheering on the boys in front of that crowd would be second to none, one never knows what may happen. I would not fear the crowd in the stadium as I have heard the Iranian soccer fans are wonderful. What I would fear would be other people and places. Remember, 24 years ago, not even our embassy was safe there. Should it come to this, I would have serious thoughts to attending this one. However, it may be worthy of a book!
I watch Asia soccer and noticed a few facts. The tallented teams usually prevail but sometimes surprises happen. Some teams(Iran, Japan) are not liked and get bad calls by biased refs. This is not a race thing but some arabic refrees give bad calls to Iran or Japan or even South Korea, when they play against an Arabic country such as KSA or Bahrain. It got to a point that Iran and Japan have requested no Arabic refrees during their games. They only want Central or East Asian refs out of Asia. Anyway, The two teams in the top seeds that have the biggest chance of fignting for their lives to get in will be South Korea and KSA. South Korea just tied to Moldovia for crying out loud, and KSA did not even pass the first round of the Asian Cup Championships. Japan and Iran finished first in their group. Japan finished as Asian Champs, and Iran placed third. Also, Iran finished first out of the toughest first round group. They faced Jordan, Qatar, and Laos(this one is bad.) Best Coaches Iran has the best coach in Asia, a Croatian by the name of Bronko Ivonkovick. He was offered contracts by other countries such as Qatar but Bronko refused. Japan has the next best coach and I think he is a Brazilian. Best Individual Tallent #1 Iran #2 Japan Best overall team #1 Japan #2 Iran. Best Offense in Asia Iran Best Defense in Asia Japan Andugus wrote: On the other hand is Tehran. I would love to go, but am not sure I would. While the experience of cheering on the boys in front of that crowd would be second to none, one never knows what may happen. I would not fear the crowd in the stadium as I have heard the Iranian soccer fans are wonderful. What I would fear would be other people and places. Remember, 24 years ago, not even our embassy was safe there. Should it come to this, I would have serious thoughts to attending this one. However, it may be worthy of a book! My dear friend Andygus: If you travel to Iran I promise that you would be treated like a king. I am not Persian but my parrents use to live in Iran. I am of Russian and Turkish decent and when I visited Iran, they treated me well. I even told them that I was from America and they got excited. The people over there are friendly to foreigners, especially to the rare Americans that get to travel over there.