So, who was the best "finisher" in MLS this season? Of course, we could talk subjectively for hours about this, but just to create some interesting discussion, I though I'd look at some...ahem...numbers. You'll find my "Scoring Efficiencey" table below. Now I put this together in about an hour, cutting and pasting from MLS.net and sorting like crazy, so there may be some errors in there. Here was my methodolgy. First, I determined I only wanted to use run-of-play goals, so I adjusted shots and goals for PKs made and attemped to get a "run of play" set of numbers. Second, I arbitrarily included players who scored a minimum of 5 run of play goals. (That eliminated, for example, guys like Jeff Cunningham). Third, I normalized key numbers for 90 minutes. Fourth, I looked at percentages as evidence of "efficiency." Who is (a) putting the majority of their shots on frame and (b) putting the majority of their on-frame shots in the back of the net? And answer is....Alejandro Moreno. OK, OK...I know that sounds really goofy...and it probably is, since he just had a few goals. But he was awfully awfully efficient. To me, there are other more interesting things in this table. Table in next post below. I'll deal with that in a subsequent post.
Scoring Efficiency Table G=Goals (includes PK goals) R=Run of Play RG = Run of Play Goals RSHT = Run of Play Shots SOG=Shot on Goal (i.e., Frame) Code: [size=1] POS PLAYER MIN G SHT SOG RGs RGs/90 RSHT/90 RGs/RSHTs RPSOG/RSHT RGs/SOG FWD Alejandro_Moreno 1117 6 19 12 6 0.48 1.53 31.58% 63.16% 50.00% MID Dema Kovalenko 2401 6 26 14 6 0.22 0.97 23.08% 53.85% 42.86% FWD Pat Noonan 1646 10 44 24 10 0.55 2.41 22.73% 54.55% 41.67% FWD Landon Donovan 1882 12 53 30 11 0.53 2.49 21.15% 54.72% 37.93% FWD Zizi Roberts 729 5 27 16 5 0.62 3.33 18.52% 59.26% 31.25% FWD Edson Buddle 1509 10 59 26 10 0.60 3.52 16.95% 44.07% 38.46% FWD Taylor Twellman 1893 15 90 47 15 0.71 4.23 16.85% 52.22% 32.61% FWD Igor Simutenkov 1435 7 43 25 7 0.44 2.70 16.28% 58.14% 28.00% MID Brian Kamler 2322 6 37 18 6 0.23 1.43 16.22% 48.65% 33.33% MID Chris Klein 2527 6 37 16 6 0.21 1.32 16.22% 43.24% 37.50% FWD Mike Magee 1709 7 44 25 7 0.37 2.32 15.91% 56.82% 28.00% M/F Brian Mullan 2723 6 38 19 6 0.20 1.26 15.79% 50.00% 31.58% MID DaMarcus Beasley 1969 7 45 16 7 0.32 2.06 15.56% 35.56% 43.75% FWD Brian Ching 1235 6 39 17 6 0.44 2.84 15.38% 43.59% 35.29% FWD Brian McBride 2183 12 68 34 10 0.41 2.72 15.15% 47.06% 31.25% FWD Jason Kreis 1543 7 42 21 6 0.35 2.33 15.00% 47.62% 31.58% M/F* Chris Brown 1327 5 35 18 5 0.34 2.37 14.29% 51.43% 27.78% MID Mark Chung 2639 11 78 39 11 0.38 2.66 14.10% 50.00% 28.21% FWD John Wolyniec 1385 5 39 20 5 0.32 2.53 12.82% 51.28% 25.00% FWD John Spencer 2265 14 81 37 10 0.40 3.02 13.16% 40.74% 31.25% FWD Damani Ralph 1985 11 91 36 10 0.45 4.08 11.11% 38.46% 28.57% FWD Carlos Ruiz 2331 15 84 51 8 0.31 2.93 10.53% 52.38% 18.60% F/M Clint Mathis 2019 9 84 35 8 0.36 3.61 9.88% 40.48% 25.00% MID Preki 2678 12 92 34 7 0.24 2.89 8.14% 31.52% 25.00% FWD Ante Razov 2270 14 119 67 9 0.36 4.48 7.96% 52.10% 14.75% [/B] [/size]
Some random observations. --Just by virtue of efficiency alone, along with goals scored, I think Pat Noonan has strong case for Rookie of the Year, partial as I may be to Damani Ralph. As many Run of Play goals as Ralph with half the shots. And Ralph was a starter, while Noonan played the sub role, and part of the time as a nominal midfielder. --Dema Kovalenko had an excellent scoring campaign, considering how he was a d-mid often, I believe. When he took the few shots he did, he made 'em count. --Is there any doubt Taylor Twellman can score in this league? His .7 run of play goals per game, and 15 run of play goals total, strikes me as really high relative to everybody else, though it would interesting to run some more descriptive statistics on this one. --Ante "I never met a shot I didn't like" Razov is extraordinarily inefficient in his shooting. Plus his numbers are padded by penalties. --Preki "I too never met a shot I didn't like" Rad...was also quite inefficient...and also had his numbers padded by penalties. --Carlos " I never met a dive I didn't like" Ruiz is ANOTHER player in the Preki/Razov mold. PK scoring, lots of Run of Play shots, lots of misses. --Is there any doubt Clint is a shadow of his former self?? Take a gander as THOSE efficiency percentages. Yikes.
beineke, voros, and I had a similar discussion at this thread. As for Mathis - he does appear to be completely off his game:
I've done a little bit of work on this. One thing I've noticed is that there are more players who are consistently poor percentage shooters than there are players who are consistently good percentage shooters. One year, guys like Mauricio Cienfuegos or Steve Ralston or Alex Pineda Chacon will score on around 25% of their total shots. Then the next year they miss so often that they don't score enough goals to even show up on the charts. The important question that I don't yet have the answer to is, What does it MEAN? Preki has consistently been a poor percentage shooter since the day he entered the league, but you could make a credible argument that he's been the best attacking player in the history of MLS. The same goes for Razov. Is the lesson then that if you want to be a consistent scorer you should shoot more, or does it just mean that some guys score better by striking it on goal every chance they get, while others do better by positioning themselves for the very best shots?
Wouldn't you love to see the raw data on that in relation to the stuff that was in the MLS media guides. I wonder if we should really start petitioning MLS for deeper and deeper stats.
great work by Karl too btw. Only thing is though both Kovelenko and Morejeno both have the (some of the) fewest Shots on Goal of of that list you mentioned. I wonder what you think about that other than the obvious?
Thanks for the props. It was a lot of fun to do...and pretty easy, I must say. Moreno of course had just 1100 minutes in the league this year, which was the second lowest number on this list. Were he to replicate his efficience over, say, 2000 minutes, he'd be one of the top scoreres in the league, and an all-star. Superdave is right, in that he really likes to "close with the enemy." I believe that playing forward is about good positioning, good timing on runs, and ability to shoot accurately. That's why Mike Magee will likely have a decent career in MLS, despite his lack of size and speed. Kovalenko played a lot of forward for Indiana, and took a bunch of turns up top when he played for the Fire. His shot is hard, low, and accurate, -- I simply can't recall any time I saw him with the Fire that a shot skyed over the crossbar. And when he played an attacking position, he was really a run right at 'em kind of guy, and not afraid to take players on. He is extremely versatile, but is probably playing out of position at d-mid.
A theory on some of this... Guys with a big shot, who crank from range, are going to have a much larger "standard distribution" around the averages we're looking at here. So the year-to-year fluctuation would be higher. I'd expect this would be especially true for midfielders who are not in the box as much. Just a guess.