I speak as a neutral being an Italy fan. It is not easy to judge Southgate because this is his first job in adult football. My assessment of England is based more on the players they have and the ones coming through. I have the impression Southgate is a good coach, good enough to win an int'l competition anyay.
You might be right about Italy's lack of quality in the final third. It's difficult to assess Italy's level. We haven't seen them playing A tier teams in a while. I guess even Italian supporters don't know the real level of their team yet. Italy have a reputation of a tournament team you know. It's rather rare that they bow out early. They go usually deep more often than not. But they are going through a drought at the World Cup since ever they won in 2006. England don't have this reputation. They have the reputation of under-performers or even bottlers. In 2018 they should have reached the Final after being 1:0 up against Croatia and that 1st half where it looked clearly England's to lose.
In the latest FIFA co-efficient ranking published today, UEFA teams occupy 6 of the first 7 positions and 7 of the first 10. The other 3 in the top 10 are CONMEBOL teams, although both Argentina and Uruguay - eighth and nineth respectively - both lost positions over the last month. Traditionally strong teams like Germany, Switzerland, Croatia, the Netherlands and Sweden are all just outside the top 10 and this is testament to the strength in depth among UEFA teams.
I don’t have half the nerdyness of some of you guys, and as such, do not watch as many games and dive into the details as much - So take this with a grain of salt. But, I just don’t get the Portugal hype at all...
I'm not hyping them up. Most powerhouses are not going through their best phase. Portugal is one of the improved teams sice ever they won EURO 2016. They tend to do very well in EUROs and not so much in World Cups. This will change rather sooner than later.
*Other The winner will be whichever big name nation takes a stand and boycotts Qatar. Sadly, there likely will be no winner. It certainly won't be all the workers who are being held in the country against their will building stadiums and infrastructure for less wages than promised in conditions which has already produced over 6,000 deaths.
No nation dares to boycott the World Cup. Because it's an event which takes place only every four years. For a boycott to have an impact there have to be several powerful and big football nations to do that. Even if one big name boycotts it chances aren't high that others will follow. Most nations will content themselves with some campaigns for attracting attention for this matter.
Every 4 years like the Olympics. No nation would ever boycott the Olympics.......oh wait..... And, no, I don't think any country will put morals over the glory of sports. That's kind of the point.
Well, I think the self professed ignorance probably explains why you don't see it. That being said, I think Portugal, England, italy and Spain have roughly the same chances, with France being the main stand out, and Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark a notch below.
For me in 2022, I see it being a first time Winner who wins the World Cup and this first time winner will be from Europe Out of these first time winners: Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands and Croatia I'm going with Portugal. Portugal is just too deep of a team right now...they are loaded at almost every position but also I see Ronaldo having that perfect storybook ending to his national team career. He wins the World Cup for Portugal and then retires solidifying himself as the GOAT so there is no debate any more between him and Messi.
I'm watching the Euros and I think it's safe to say there's no chance of a non-Euro team win the World Cup next year.
Belgium are coming from an exit to Italy at the EUROs. Roberto Martinez got outcoached by Mancini today. I don't see Belgium winning anything with him at the helm. On the other side time is too short for a managerial change. Belgium's key players won't get any younger. If they couldn't win EURO 2020 when several powerhouses dissappointed then there is not much to believe that they could win the World Cup when competition will probably be even more fierce than at this EUROs.
Brazil might reach the semi finals, Argentina might reach the quarters, there their tournaments should terminate. It would be suprising if all four semi-finalists were not UEFA teams.
It has been a while since a South American team won the WC and its going to be a while longer still. Argentina have no chance in 2022. Brazil very small.
If anything these Euros have just proven the unpredictability of the sport, add Qatar into the mix and I think almost anything can happen.
I dunno. I think COVID has a lot to do with the unpredictability and that will (hopefully) be close to a non-factor 18 months from now. That said, I expect a lot of surprises in WC 2022 qualifying, which would impact the groups we will get in Qatar, which in-turn effects the whole tournament.
The last time Asia hosted the World Cup there were so many surprises and unpredictable results. I expect an even crazier 2022 World Cup.