Which newbies have the best chance at qualifying for Brazil 2014?

Venezuela is definitely a strong candidate. The only team in South America that currently looks like a long-shot for qualification is Bolivia.

I'd really dig Panama making it, but mostly because I'm a fan of Dely Valdés.

 

I looked at the CAF qualifying format for 2014 and it looks like there are no seeds in last round - its just pure chance.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/01/44/46/05/2014fwc_drawprocedures_africa.pdf

Projected group winners are South Africa, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Egypt, Mali, Cameroon, Senegal. Burkina Faso and Mali could very much draw teams like South Africa or Tunisia so actually chances for either of them progressing are much higher than suggested.

I can also see Cape Verde winning Tunisia's group, Guinea winning Egypt's group (given the crisis Egypt are currently in), Zambia and Sudan causing Ghana problems and one of those sides progressing at the cost of the African powerhouses (Ghana has the toughest group) or even Botswana beating out South Africa.

So the African format can deal out a whole lot of surprises.

Worst thing is that in the last round the best teams can actually eliminate themselves. Imagine draws like:
Nigeria - Ghana
Senegal - Egypt
Cameroon - Cote d'Ivoire

Absolutely shockingly terrible qualifying format for 2014 in Africa. Heads should roll.

 

Why do you rate Montenegro higher than Bosnia?

To me, Bosnia is currently the best candidate of all new teams. Very strong team, in 2010 they finished above Turkey and Belgium, now they almost finished above France and they have drawn a fairly easy group head. I give them a fair shot at direct qualification, and I expect at least the playoffs of them. Montenegro isn't strong enough to challenge England, and they have 2 serious competitors for the playoff spot in Poland and Ukraine, I'd be surprised if they make it.

So, to me Bosnia is the most likely Candidate. Venezuela is also a strong possibility, though in the South America qualification, almost everyone is strong enough to make it. I agree about Panama and Guatemala, especially since the 4th of CONCACAF will play the OFC team in relegation.

Otherwise, AFC 5th will have to face CONMEBOL 5th, making it more difficult. South Korea, Japan and Australia are bound to qualify... Bahrein is already in some trouble, I doubt they'll make it. Uzbekistan is a possibility, but there are some others. Jordan looks like another possibility for a newbie, Iraq and Qatar might also be options... though in the end, I'd bet on Iran making it and the 5th, whoever it is, failing against the CONMEBOL team.

Africa tends to be quite unpredictable. I agree with what Zahzah said, though I'd be somewhat surprised if Ghana gets upset in group stage, as I rate them quite highly.

And due to format changes, I think the likelyhood of a new team will be reduced a bit, I think it'll lead to stronger teams qualifying. In the old format, one upset was often enough to qualify, which lead to some pretty weak teams at the World Cup, remember 2006? Now, you'll have to win your group and then win a playoff round... works as an additional check. Yes, it might pitch 2 strong teams against each other, but they'll probably do the draw seeded to avoid really bad pairings.

 

What I underlined will be the Third Round. The First Round is over and the Second Round is in progress. Cuba starts in the Third Round but could finish last in that round for like they did last time. Honduras will be the favorite and Canada will look at it as their chance to get to the final round of qualifying which they missed the last three times. I'd say there's a good chance the last place team in the Hexagonal comes from that Semifinal group.

Edit: The previous topic about this topic had a post less than three months ago along with a poll that is now closed where Bosnia-Herzegovina got the most votes. It's at https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1762475.

 

Just saying that they have the toughest group of all. Zambia are perennial big-boy-beaters and were the strongest team in the second pot (apart from maybe Mali), while Sudan seldom loses games at home (although Ghana cruised through Omdurman to qualify for the African Cup of Nations). I'm not saying it will happen, but the format chosen means one slip up and Ghana will be in trouble.

I checked out the forum on Ghanaweb.com and people there were cursing the heavens, because they got the worst possible draw.

The new system is better in that it makes it harder for a big upset. But I feel they should have drawn 2 groups of 5 or something to decide who goes. Imagine i.e. Ghana getting drawn against Cote d'Ivoire. Suddenly the system means one of the top two teams is out because of a draw.

 

I think it's possible that El Salvador could make it to the Hex. I think they play just as good as Guatemala and Panama, so that puts them with a chance.

 

In my opinion, the two newbies with a good chance at qualification are Bosnia and Venezuela (who have been helped by the extra CONMEBOL spot, but also by the fact that their current team is the strongest Venezuelan team I can remember...possibly of all time).

 

So does Zambia stand a chance or not?

 

Not a big one, but I would put them as one of the favourites for an upset. But first they would have to beat Ghana to the chase and then hope for a lucky draw. I can see them pulling off one upset, but two is unimaginable.

Just out of curiosity I went back to FIFA to pick up some stats.

Zambia has a decent head-to-head against Ghana (2 wins, 3 losses, but apparently the last game Zambia lost was a joke, where they had to field overweight college students or something like that), but haven't played a competitive match in over 15 years (1:0 win for Zambia, but Ghana was a much weaker side back then, while Zambia was better). Zambia has a long history with Sudan - normally winning home games and losing away games (9 wins for Zambia, 5 losses and 2 draws). Ghana on the other hand hasn't lost to Sudan in 10 years and have a historically superior H2H - 6 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw.

So basically Ghana favourites to win, Zambia capable of pulling an upset, while Sudan could take away some crucial points (most likely from Zambia). All in all I would have to make Zambia third favourite in Africa behind Burkina Faso and Mali to be a 'newbie'.

Anyway I sure hope Ghana manage to avoid any snags, although I sympathise with Zambia due to the 1993 plane crash, when they were on the verge of qualifying for the 1994 World Cup. Would be nice to see them at the World Cup...

 

You think? Conmebol will be sending their 6th team to the playoffs but will still start favorites over AFC, as they would over any of the playoff teams. CONCACAF's 4th better than OFC's best? I suppose there is always a first time for everything.

 

El Salvador is not a newbie.

 

Group E in European qualifying is just shamefully bad. None of Albania, Cyprus and Iceland particularly showed anything in Euro 2012 qualifying. But, it still is a very poor group with none of top teams Norway, Slovenia, and Switzerland playing well in Euro 2012 qualifying. If Estonia can make a playoff game so can any of those nations.

 

What I mean is that I can't think of a time when CONCACAF's 4th best team has been better than OFC's best team. If you can, then point it out to me.

 

It's an interesting matchup to debate and it will be much more interesting to find out who's will take it, on the pitch about 2 years from now.

 

Uzbekistan will stand a chance..

 

As far as AFC are concerned what about Jordan? They did well at the last AFC (extra time loss to Australia) and are going very strong in their qualifying group. They look set to make it to the final round of qualifying, as all they need is a win over group weakling Singapoore at home.

Thailand have an outside shot as the only Far East team, although I think they'll get mauled in the final phase if they make it there.

 

So rankings are more important than results to you. Rankings don't mean much in this situation as OFC teams don't get to play in continental qualifiers nor do they have a tournament every two years to boost their rankings points. The OFC nations Cup doubles as World Cup qualifying, so they only get friendly points from most of the matches they play. CONCACAF teams (other than USA, Canada and MEXICO) get two rounds of continental qualifiers, one round of World Cup qualifiers and two Confederation Championships to boost their rankings. New Zealand easily outperformed CONCACAF's 3rd at the last World Cup, and I can't remember a time when CONCACAF's 4th would be better than Australia, who were OFC's best for some time before they left for Asia. There aren't too many times when we have had a match up between OFC teams and CONCACAF teams, and its usually been nations from the top 2 or three in CONCACAF rather than 4th, but the match ups at that level have been fairly even, with maybe even an edge to OFC. As I said, if CONCACAF's 4th wins out over OFC's best, it will be the first time. It may happen, but its not the cakewalk so many from North America seem to think.

 

Using FIFA rankings for Oceania is a bit of a stretch. New Zealand plays more games against 150 placed and lower opposition than any team in the world. Plus they hardly ever play apart from friendlies. The way the points are counted they are destined to be lowly ranked, even if they beat opposition to a pulp. Except for Confed Cups, World Cups and playoffs they have no way to increase their ranking and are destined to hover at 100-50 level.

Just look at 2011 - New Zealand has a total of 21 points for the whole year! They have played just 3 friendlies all year, drawing 1 (against China) and losing 2. If you look at results the ranking just doesn't do them justice: Yes, they lose most games, but against second tier opposition they get results.

Since 2009 they've beaten Serbia, Bahrain, Jordan and drawn with Botswana, Iraq, Bahrain, Paraguay, Slovakia, Italy, Honduras and China. Admitedly they've lost half the games they've played (but those includes teams like Spain, Italy, Mexico and Paraguay).

In regards to the discussion New Zealand has played CONCACAF teams 4 times since 2006 (on becoming the top OFC nation). Lost three (2 x Mexico, 1 x Costa Rica) and drew Honduras.

After all is said my vote goes to CONCACAF.

 

Jordan look promising but Thailand definitely don't have the strength to stand a proper chance (but at least they aren't managed by Peter Reid anymore...which'll give em a better chance than 2010).

 

Jordan lost to Uzbekisitan, not Australia at QF. But still they are one of the best performing teams in Asia right now.

 

Panama

 

Speaking of Uzbekistan... I think they have a chance.