Which 32 teams do you think will qualify for Qatar 2022?

It would be nice to see Ghana again, but they will have a tough time, they are not likely to be seeded, although they are currently at #6 so if one of the top 5 seeds slips up in the next round (most likely Tunisia vs Zambia I would say) then Ghana may get that spot, but I dont see this current Ghana team beating any of the top 5 seeds not named Tunisia. You've got some new young talent comming through, but its still not close to the talented teams Ghana has had in the past IMO.

 

I agree.

Unless its Mexico or the US who slip up I'd say its almost a 50 50.

You could also have a strong Asian team slip up and be in the playoffs as well, like happened with Australia last time.

Even New Zealand gave a decent account of themselves against a very strong Peru side last time.

 

Norway will have a tough time to qualify with the draw. They likely wont even be a second seed.

 

Japan played one of the best games of the tournament last time against Belgium. I dont see how you could call them boring. Korea beat Germany, and Iran did OK too. AFC unfortunately doesn't really have enough depth to send quality teams in place of the teams you mentioned. It will be interesting to see if Qatar can produce at home after their Asian cup triumph.

 

and that was only after a penalty shootout so it could just as easily have been another Conmebol win.

 

I agree with you on this. The AFC system tends to get the best teams through each time. Last time it was even a good predictor of how the teams went. Group winners had a win and a draw, group runners up had 1 win each and the playoff winner got a point from a draw. I'm not quite sure why Africa can't come up with a better way. The current system, if they started a bit earlier, would still work until the top ten when they could have two groups of 5 for the final stage instead of knockout pairings. 3rd placed teams play off for the 5th spot. Too late for this tournament though, so lets hope they come up with something better next time, or even with 9 spots they risk having a top 5 side stay at home.

 

I appreciate you labelling Australia a “strong Asian team”!

I feel we’re going to struggle in this qualifying series; we’ll get through the current phase without any problems, but the next stage will be interesting, and even a playoff birth might be beyond us.

Unfortunately we don’t have much high-level talent in the 20-25 age bracket, and the second-tier Asian sides are improving.

 

Japan has a solid generation of young players coming through, led by Kubo and Tomiyasu, so I expect they’ll be strong in WC 2022. Qatar will be more competitive than what a lot of people think, too - they’re well coached, and will obviously enjoy the benefit of being seeded and avoiding the big guns at the group stage.

One of my hopes for the 2022 tournament is for someone outside Europe and South America to break through and make the semis. Nigeria or Mexico look to have the best chance, given they both have quality young players who should be hitting their peak in two years time.

 

I would rather see the top 2 in each of the 10 groups advance and then have five groups of 4 in round 3 (with each group composed of two group-winners and 2 second-place teams).

Its a bit more difficult for CAF than AFC though because they have a lot of teams that are around the same quality. In AFC the gap is pretty significant between the top 4 and anyone that didn't make it the final qualifying round.

 

Yes we have strong Hope's for Nigeria in 2022, as we are assembling perhaps our strongest overall squad ever, especially in terms of depth. Should be peaking in 2022.

 

I don't want Iran to advance, but they're not in a horrible position. You have to look at more than just the standings. Each group has four teams with 5 games played and 3 remaining, and one team with 4 played and 4 remaining. Iran has a game in hand. Furthermore, they have three home games and go to Cambodia, who has 1 point, 1 goal, and 22 goals allowed. Iran's 14/4 = +3.5 goal differential per game in second in AFC to Australia, albeit that's because Iran won 14-0 hosting Cambodia. I wouldn't be surprised if Iran won all 4 games, which would give them 18 points and first place. Iraq (11 points) and Bahrain (9 points) would get 6 more if they lost at Iran and won their other two, so Iraq would have 17 and Bahrain would 15. Iraq and Bahrain already played twice, so them not playing each other again is bad for Iran, but Iran is still in an okay position. If Iran loses hosting Iraq and wins 3 games to finish with 15, they will finish with at least as many points as Bahrain. Bahrain could win hosting Hong Kong and Cambodia, but their +2 goal differential is 12 worse than Iran's, so Iran will win the goal differential tiebreaker if necessary. 15 points may or may not be enough to advance as a second place team. Group A has Syria and China likely to exceed 15, and Syria already has 15. In Group B, Kuwait and Jordan have 3 games left including at first place Australia. If Kuwait and Jordan both lose or draw at Australia and lose or draw at least one other game, second place will have fewer than 15. Kuwait and Jordan have 10 points from 5 games, but Kuwait's goal differential is 6 better, and Jordan's games are all away, so Kuwait should finish above Jordan. Kuwait can get to 16 by winning hosting Jordan and at last place Chinese Taipei. Iran is in Group C, so I'm up to Group D. Group D has the teams packed together, and Saudi Arabia has 8 points, 4 games played, 3 home games left, and a trip to the last place team just like Iran. The difference is that Iran is in third and Saudi Arabia is in second. I'm guessing they will win the group. If first place Uzbekistan loses at Saudi Arabia and wins hosting Singapore and at Yemen, they will have 15 points. Uzbekistan's +6 is 8 worse than Iran's, so if Uzbekistan gets two wins and a loss, they will probably have a worse goal differential than Iran. Group E has first place Qatar who can't play in the next round and second place Oman way ahead of third place Afghanistan. The points are 13, 12, 4, 3, and 1. Even if Oman loses hosting Qatar, they just need a win and a draw at India and Bangladesh to reach 16. As long as none of Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, or Myanmar win at Japan, the second place team from Group F will have fewer than 15 points. All three of them lost 2-0 or 3-0 hosting Japan. Group G has a crowd. United Arab Emirates are in fourth, but they have 4 games left including hosting the top three. If they win at Malaysia and Thailand, Malaysia will have 15 or fewer and a worse goal differential than Iran, and Thailand will have 14 or fewer. If United Arab Emirates wins three with a draw hosting first place Vietnam, United Arab Emirates will have 16. Vietnam could get to 16 with a draw at Malaysia and a win hosting Indonesia, who doesn't have a point. Group H has four teams with 8 or 9 points, so it's not worth trying to predict the points by the second place team. Given their three home games, I think Iran is more likely to win than to lose in all of their remaining games, and if they win all 4, they advance. I'm not saying they will win all 4, but they don't have to win any individual games that would be surprises.

FIFA doesn't let seedings be determined by anything other than the FIFA Rankings and OFC's criteria for the teams that start in the first round. AFC couldn't use the first group stage to determine seeding in the second group stage, and CAF can't rank the group winners to seed the final round.

If you're talking about now, why do you prefer winner-take-all groups at the end? It's nice to get many teams in the first group stage, but winner-take-all groups have too many meaningless games at the end. Whether a group has four, five, or six teams, I don't like if no second place teams advance. CAF has winner-take-all groups, and AFC doing that would be bad also IMO. What was worse than CAF's current format was when they ended with five winner-take-all groups of six. By the last two matchdays, at least two of the three games could be between two eliminated teams. It's like when fans aren't interested in watching games between two clubs who won't make the CL, EL, or get relegated.

 

So, in short, Iran is fine as long as they don't blow their home game with Bahrain.

 

The only confederation I can comment on is South America because all the others seem unclear with draws and such.

I mean maybe I can say the obvious in the CONCACAF will get there but as we saw last cycle and the previous cycle the USA missed out on Russia and Mexico struggled a bit to get into Brasil.

I have said this a lot that I am not as high on Uruguay as others seem to be around here. Their best players are getting up their in age and now their Federation and managerial situation seems to be in a bit of disarray due to the economic fallout of the pandemic.
They still have a chance to make it of course but they have struggled in previous cycles making it to 5th place playoff spots. I would not be surprised to see them do that again this cycle if they do qualify.

The Venezuela pick seems to be there based on their U20 World Cup Final guys from a few years back now maturing into good role players on the Senior squad.
But there is still something missing from them.
Chile is also old but has experienced players. Peru I don't think can catch lightening in a bottle back-to-back cycles. Although I will not underestimate them too much because I respect their manager immensely.
Paraguay is one of those pesky teams that can beat anyone anywhere on any given day but can also look so anemic offensively and lost out there when the going gets tough.
Add in a pandemic and a schedule with disruption and last minute changes and it is very difficult to figure things out over a couple year span.

If I had to choose though it would be:

Brasil
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
Uruguay- Possibly losing to the Asian playoff squad. Would be fun if it is Australia for nostalgia's sake.
If it is Uzbekistan or Jordan or a team like that forgetabouit -Uruguay advances.