Honestly, looking at the schedules of all the teams fighting for that fourth spot, it looks like it could be pretty close. I venture to guess we should be able to pick up at least nine or ten points in our last five games. We should do better, but with the way we play at home, who really knows. I would say, just guessing, that it will come down to goal differential. I can easily see Aston Villa, Liverpool, Newcastle and Charlton all tied. I am not worried about Birmingham or Fulham. Both have very tough games remaining that could limit their final point total. Thoughts?
Here is the current table: Liverpool 34 50 Newcastle 33 50 Aston Villa 34 49 Charlton 33 48 Birmingham 34 47 Southampton 33 45 Fulham 34 45 Middlesbrough 34 45 Bolton 34 44 I admit that Southampton through Bolton would need a very hot streak and lots of luck to take the final CL spot. That leaves: Liverpool 34 50 Newcastle 33 50 Aston Villa 34 49 Charlton 33 48 Birmingham 34 47 Here are the remaining schedules for the five teams: Liverpool: Apr 24 Man Utd v Liverpool 10:00 AM May 1 Liverpool P - P Middlesbrough Postponed May 8 Birmingham v Liverpool 10:00 AM May 15 Liverpool v Newcastle 10:00 AM Newcastle: Apr 25 Newcastle v Chelsea 9:00 AM May 1 Man City v Newcastle 10:00 AM May 8 Newcastle P - P Wolverhampton May 15 Liverpool v Newcastle 10:00 AM Aston Villa: Apr 24 Middlesbrough v Aston Villa 10:00 AM May 2 Aston Villa v Tottenham 10:00 AM May 8 Southampton v Aston Villa 10:00 AM May 15 Aston Villa v Man Utd 10:00 AM Charlton: Apr 20 Man Utd v Charlton 3:00 PM Apr 24 Fulham v Charlton 10:00 AM May 1 Charlton v Leicester 10:00 AM May 8 Leeds v Charlton 10:00 AM May 15 Charlton v Southampton 10:00 AM Birmingham: Apr 25 Birmingham v Wolverhampton 7:00 AM May 1 Arsenal v Birmingham 10:00 AM May 8 Birmingham v Liverpool 10:00 AM May 15 Blackburn v Birmingham 10:00 AM
I think that Charlton does have an easier schedule than some of the other teams, but they will be playing teams that are fighting for their financial lives. Plus Leeds. They drive me crazy. Here is the average points of opponets for the teams: Liverpool:52.5 points. They have big matches against Birmingham and Newcastle that will affect the race to a huge extent. Newcastle: 46 points. Two of their matches are against relagation threatened teams. Lets hope Man City plays really well in their match. Aston Villa: 49 points. Pretty tough schedule all around. Charlton: 43.6 points. This is very doable. Birmingham: 49 points. Very difficult match against Arsenal, unless takes the day off if they have already clinched the title.
Newcastle has an extra game that you didn't list. They have a makeup match with Pompey on the Tuesday night before the last matchday of the season. I expect Pompey to be clear of relegation by then and that one game will be the one that puts Newcastle in the fourth place spot.
Since I didn't really expect points from the match with Man Utd., I am still hopeful -- for a fifth place finish. At this point, I would much rather see us build up and get some games under our belts in the UEFA Cup. Along with this it would be great to actually win a few games in the Carling Cup and FA Cup next year. With the money Curbs has and the effort to enlarge the squad, I certainly hope we can extend our season toward gaining some recognition if not even some silverware.