I was listening to a podcast and that question came up. I thought it would be a good topic for a new thread. Has the GOP now become the Trump party? Is there a future for Trumpism in US national politics? To add to the debate, sharing those tidbits from the WSJ. I have my own thoughts that I will add later. Wall Street Journal: “In private conversations, he has polled advisers on what he should do next, musing about how he can stay relevant in the media and in the Republican Party and how he can earn money.” “He has repeatedly expressed interest in running for president again in 2024, which some advisers have urged him to do as a way to save face, telling him he can decide whether to follow through later.”
I think it is the Trump party for the foreseeable future, because he owns Republican voters and can crush any contenders with a single tweet. That will change if he wants it to change (unlikely), or if the Trump version of the GOP loses for long enough that the voters revolt.
What's the future for Trump (-ism)? Hopefully, full of state-level indictments for which a potential presidential self-pardon won't be relevant.
That would be the dream scenario but I am afraid we are stuck with Trumpism for the foreseeable future. To start with it is clear that Trump has a stronghold on the republican / conservative base and knowing the man, he will try to maintain it and scam it as much as he can. For him it is also gives him some cover since he can always claim that any investigations / indictments are political witch hunts. Not to mention, he can again use that as an other scam. In addition, even he if does not run in 2024, he will either push one of his kids. If not, any other contenders will have to get his blessing and approval to win the GOP primary.
Trump's success---and the reaction of other parties across the ideological spectrum--suggests that there's a potential for a red-brown populist alliance that combines regressive ethno-nationalism, xenophobia, isolationism, and economic populism into a new political coalition built from muc of the GOP base, allied with various third-party & independents including right-wing libertarians, diehard Dominionists, 'anti-imperialist' far-left types (Tulsi Gabbard supporters, for example), and so forth. Trump appealed to a lot of those groups, but he could never find a way to turn that latent appeal into overt support--he was too wedded to being a Republican (now). There are a LOT of voices on the far Left who held off from supporting Trump because he never stopped reminding people of what pro-rich-people bigot he is, but if you find a way to speak in softer dog whistles instead of MAGA megaphones, and make token efforts at living up to the ersatz economic populism Trump initially peddled, you'll get a lot more H.A. Goodman-type defections. Tucker Carlson might be the guy to figure out how to bridge that divide--the libertarian/left side of that coalition is a distinct (and disparate) minority, but given the electoral advantages the GOP already has built-in with the EC and whatnot, bringing those anti-establishment fringe voters into the fold might be all a future GOP nominee might need to win the WH and maybe even retake the House.
And yeah, we are stuck with trumpism. There will be 5 tv networks, there already is Parler, etc. etc.
Maybe a better way to look at the question is to make a distinction between the specific cult of personality around Trump, versus the unleashing/legitimization of reactionary nationalist politics his political rise has unleashed.
That is a good point and it also brings us back to asking this as well : Can trumpism survive w/out Trump? Can any of the nativists/neo facists out there (Cotton/Hawley/Tucker or even Don Jr etc) take the mantle from Trump if he is not on the stage?
Just posted this from The Bulwark in another thread. Jonathan Last on why this is the case: The GOP Isn't Dead Yet - The Triad (thebulwark.com) [indent\But here’s what I was wrong about: The only thing keeping the Republican party viable are the institutional designs of the Senate and the Electoral College. And because of them, Trumpism is probably the best path forward for the GOP. Which is to say that Republicans have faced a choice over the last generation: Change the nature of their racial demographic appeal; or Change the nature of their educational demographic appeal. They chose the latter, which meant driving up their margins among non-college educated rural white voters. At this point, the GOP is pot-committed to this strategy. They couldn’t change direction even if they wanted to. And it’s going to work out for them. Look how closely Senate election results now line up with presidential election results at the state level. By maxing out with non-college rural whites, Republicans have given up the suburbs and metro areas—which is where the population growth is. But this shift has also pressed their geographic advantage and allowed them to remain competitive in the Electoral College and at an advantage in the Senate. So no, Trump didn’t kill the Republican party. He formalized its transformation and solidified it as the party of rural, non-college educated whites. And this base will be enough to make the party highly competitive as a national power in the near term, even as its total vote share in the population shrinks.[/indent]
That's a good question, and is kinda the subtext to mine. I've seen people ask "what happens if the next fascist President is more competent" and the problem with that is--what, exactly, is a "competent fascist"? I'd argue that fascism--not right-wing authoritarianism in general, but fascism specifically--is inherently unstable, and that 'competency' and fascism simply don't go together. Unless those people simply mean 'competent' at finishing the job of undoing rule of law and constitutional government. Which--sure, although I hesitate to regard unrepentant nihilism was a skillset. Populist demagogues like Trump can break things; it's what they're good at. I worry about another Trump paving the way for a smarter, savvier right-wing authoritarian who knows how not just to break democracy and take power, but to keep democracy broken and hold power for a long time. THAT figure will probably be somewhat colorless, previously obscure, and come from within the establishment--quite possibly the military.
What is "Trumpism?" I know it gets bandied about, but nobody really has been able to give it a good definition, so I don't know what it really means. I have heard a couple of podcasts talk about, but the one which did give it a firm definition talked a lot about the isolationist policies of him, yet most of our discussion is about domestic policies and actions. So, because I don't have a clear definition of "Trumpism," I don't know how to answer the question.
I think about this a lot; I think one way to start is to consider it as a political approach/pose rather than a distinct ideology. Then again, I think that's also true of 21st century fascism in general.
I've been arguing similar on here for a while. Even referred to a Mad Men episode that goes through similar. As Tom Nichols said, what the guys in the diner want is 1960 with more air conditioning, better insulin, and internet porn.
I don't ever think I could see a world where Tucker Carlson runs for any political office. He has a cushy deal on top of the money he stands to inherit. He, unlike Trump, also realizes how good he has it. Plus, he's been disliked by the hardcore when he questioned SIdney Powell. Any speculation of him running is that. Speculation.
Good points. There was some supposition about him running a while ago, and at the time I reflected on how he maybe could be the guy to finish the job Trump started. But time has passed since then, and you're probably right.
Barron Trump will become President, then after one- term in office will declare himself a lifelong Emporer of the American Realm and become Baron Barron Trump. It will be like Napoleon III all over again.
It was speculation from the start. With Trump you can see him run for President because he'd been flirting with that run for years, few could see him winning it. Tucker Carlson easily wilts when he's pressured. He gave up his bow tie because he was mocked constantly about it. I imagine he still has nightmares of Jon Stewart ripping him a new one on national television.
All good points, although I'd point out that behind his bluster, Trump appears to be very fragile and thin-skinned himself.
Fine. But that still doesn't define "Trumpism." I mean, he withdrew from NATO (as much as he could) but managed some strange (and unnecessary) peace agreements. He also managed to update NAFTA. He is clearly racist, yet he did actually do some prison reform. I know Individual One is contradictory, but what is his ideology? What makes it "Trumpism?" Every time I try and wrap my head around the idea of what it is, it doesn't fit. As an example, he is anti-Obama. Great, but where does the USMCA play into that. Why did he not get the ACA overturned (in Congress)? So is "Trumpism" anti-Democrat? If so, why the prison reform? Why wasn't he able to pass anything other than the tax bill from 2017/2018? Is he anti-left? I can buy that, but why did he not put more effort into getting McConnell's stimulus to pass? Why did he have policies that hurt his own supporters as much if not more than those on the left? Besides, if he is anti-left, what makes "Trumpism" any different than the Tea Party? I honestly can't tease out what makes "Trumpism" so unique as a lasting ideology. As much as I have though about it (and it really has not been a lot of deep thinking), to me it is only about himself, and it will end when he walks away.
I would say the defining features of Trumpism are: Constant lying about everything. Nearly always making bad decisions. Like doing everything to deliberately make climate change worse, lying about covid 19, declaring our enemies to be friends and our friends to be enemies, punishing Americans with tariffs, etc etc. Deliberate destruction of the government by denigrating and eliminating intelligent, qualified public servants. The authoritarian stuff. Cronyism, tolerance for open corruption. Expecting judges and other appointed officials to do whatever he says. The narcissistic showboating stuff. Look at me! Look at me! Look at me! That's what the big orange baboon means to me.
What did he do about prison reform other than sign a bipartisan bill into law? Those uppity minorities took away our jobs, now they want to take our guns and our religion, hic!
Well, I just said it's NOT an ideology, so... I think a Venn diagram would be helpful, because I do think it comes from a matrix of different tendencies of the current political Right, but also sometimes speaks the language of the anti-establishment far Left, and of course, but isn't particularly loyal to either or consistent about any of it. In some ways, I think Trump built on what Sarah Palin pioneered--the substitution of culture-war conservatism as an end rather than means. Nixonian tactics divorced from any larger strategy--and also very stupid.
Add something about being more interested in screwing around with his phone and tweeting than actually working, and I'm all in.
Scary that this is in the "Election" subforum. That implies that Trump or Trumpism will be around for the next elections or beyond. Scary prospect. If Trump is the near future of the Republican Party, this will suck for the Republicans. If Trumpism implies that the racism, misogyny, hatred, and stupidity will be the "official" platform of the Republican Party, the Republican Party will not win another national election for some time. The party of Trump's "ideas" (not really ideas, but still), without Trump loses bigly. Trump is a cult leader. I have become more and more convinced of this over the past couple of years. Like an idiot televangelist, the more ridiculous Trump becomes, the more he is beloved by his "followers." Like an "faux-religious" leader, his followers take him as cover for their own insecurities. However, most cults fall when the leader falls. The "other" future for Trumpism is that Donald Jr takes the helm and, lacking any of the bravado of Trump, it crashes and burns in spectacular fashion.