What will be the fate of the Iran-EU negotiations?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Iranian Monitor, Jul 13, 2005.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Will the Iran-EU negotiations end in failure? Will those negotiations continue even if Iran carries out its threat to resume uranium enrichment? Will Iran back down again and continue the negotiations despite no real hope of an agreement? Will the EU carry out its threat to send Iran's case to the UN if the negotiations fail and will there be enough votes to back up the US and EU from countries like Russia and China?

    The answer to these questions can have serious ramifications for the future of our world, its security, its economy, and much more.

    http://thestar.com.my/news/story.as...01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_-209152-1&sec=Worldupdates
     
  2. verybdog

    verybdog New Member

    Jun 29, 2001
    Houyhnhnms
    Iran basically has two ways: Kim Il Jone's way or Saddam Hussein's way.
     
  3. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    In a way, you are actually right. But the problem is more complex for Iran, and the issue is more complex internationally as well, because Iran is neither like N.Korea nor Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Iran is not a closed society. There are domestic pressures from both sides that make it hard for Iran to take an entirely "hardline" attitude and there are domestic pressures that make it impossible for Iran to give up its rights. And Iran is far more inteconnected to the international economy as well, while militarily and politically it holds a lot more cards than Saddam, making the stakes higher for those outside of Iran.

    To give you a sense of what I am talkiing about, here is another report, with a broader focus than just the nuclear issue.

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_28/b3942054_mz015.htm
     
  4. verybdog

    verybdog New Member

    Jun 29, 2001
    Houyhnhnms
    Tell people that in order to fight US aggression, people need to shut up and be united.
     
  5. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think Iran is about to be invited to join the G-8.
     
  6. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How about Iran accept the reality of Israel, Make a formal request to the US to reopen relations, Let the Guardian council go the way of the dodo and have open elections and allow everyone who wants to run, run for office.

    As for the topic of the thread, it really comes down to how Iran handles the situation. Do they continue with their hardline we have the right damn the rest of you stance, or do they make open deals with say Russia, the US, and Britian to have not just inspectors in the nuclear facilities, but also come up with a workable plan to dispose of the nuclear waste and spent rods so that they goto a secure location.

    I don't think Iran making newspaper headlines claiming the bombing in London was done by the West to make Muslims look bad is the correct approach to helping their cause with the EU.

    Does anyone have a list of demands from each side, and any concessions being offered by either side?
     
  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Not realistic. The same way it would not be realistic to expect the US to accept the view of the rest of the world regarding political Zionism. Or to break relations with Israel.

    What was realistic was to have a deal where Iran's legitimate concerns are met, while in return Iran agrees not to meddle in the Arab-Israeli issue. Basically, to keep its position to itself. I am not sure that is even realistic anymore, but it could be?

    It does not matter who makes the "request", but what the terms are. In any case, Iran's president-elect ran on a platform that opposed normalization of relations with the US. Not until the US changed its policies on a host of issues, some of which the US will not change.

    That is none of the business of the US. The current Guardians Council might be somewhat akin to the US Supreme Court during the Lockner era, or (they are not that bad) the US Supreme Court that issued the Dred Scott decision. But in principle, while Iran's system needs reform, there is something for the proposition that candidates should be qualified based on more than whether they can raise money from lobbyists and make secret deals to move up the party ladder.

    You cannot have a million names on any ballot for president. That is not realistic. Some systems vet candidates either through the party system, or on the basis of how much money they raise, and hence how capable they are to meet the organization and financial requirements to become famous and popular before they are presented to the voters. In Iran, everyone can register and in theory, among them, any who have the educational qualifications, the experience, and moral character, to be president, can then enjoy equal rights to present their views. In theory, they don't need to make any deals behind the scene or base their positions on what lobbyists urge. Iran's system needs some reforms, but there are some elements in it that are superior to what you have in the US.

    Iran's president-elect has not assumed office yet. Based on his platform and campaign promises, he will take a much harder line. I believe it would be difficult for him to accept continuation of any suspension on uranium enrichment once he assumes office. However, while some of his main supporters, including the Keyhan newspaper, have endorced Iran pulling out of the NPT, he has never taken that position either. His position is that Iran will live up to its existing legal commitments under the NPT, but will not do more as "confidence building" is a two way street.
     
  8. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well IM the impression I get from you is that Iran, in your view, will not agree to any compromise. That a harder line if forthcoming. This does not bode well for the future of Iran. This isn't just a US point of view either, I would say that if Iran takes this stance with the EU that they endanger themselves further.

    I can't agree with you on your very biased thoughts about Israel. Also with Iran's meddling with the conflict there it hasn't helped matters at all. It has made the situation much worse. It also hasn't hurt Iran any as they are not fond of arabs either, so it must amuse them to no end that Arabs and Israelis are killing each other while no Persians are hurt in the fight. It's easy for Iran to sit back, spend money to help kill Arabs and Israelis, and not lose sleep over it. They get to literally kill 2 enemies for the price of one.

    The situation with the US and Iran will never improve if neither side will compromise. My belief is that the US should concede some issues with Iran and offer fair trade, in return Iran needs to change its views on Israel and allow complete access to their nuclear facilities.
     
  9. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    My views on Israel are not biased. But, FYI, I wrote an entire book about Iranian politics without saying anything about Israel! In other words, until more recently, when Israel began acting the way it has over Iran's nuclear program, Israel was not much on my mind. Nor on the mind of most Iranians, except the ideological hardliners.

    What I have written here for the most part is about the neocons, the Likudniks, and pro-Israeli groups, and their influence advocating positiosn that to me were wrong. Even wrong for Israel.

    You are right. But the problem is that the Bush administration took a position that even a liberal administration in Iran like Khatami's could not accept. Indeed, the people I criticize (neocons) felt that the US has all the power and all the money; why wait for "reforms" in Iran? We will force our position on Iran and insist on regime change in the meantime.

    Well, Khatami's tenure ends by the end of the month. If there was is any "deal to be made", it will no longer be on terms as favorable from the US perspective as the one it could have made when Khatami was in office. And if there is no deal, then it is either war, or sanctions, or nothing but total embarassment for the US.
     

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