OK, most of the time Al Michaels is just mildly annoying. Last night he was driving me nuts. St. Louis 10 - Fudgepackers 21. Third quarter. St. Louis tries a fake field goal, which fails. Micheals says how stupid that was (which I agree with) because it would have made it a "one possesion game." So if the Rams get the field goal it would have been 13 - 21. The only way it becomes a one possesion game is if the Rams score and go for 2, which doesn't happen that often and is successful even less. And since it was early in the third, it's unlikely they would have gone for 2 as that would have only tied the game, the Packers would get the ball and the way the defense was playing the Packers likely would have scored at least once more anyway, forcing the Rams to score at least 7 more points anyway just to keep it close. Even if the Rams did kick that field goal they still would need to pull ahead with another 10 points the way the Pack defense was playing. So what was Michaels thinking? And Madden is just coasting along and agreeing with him. Man, MNF sucks this year.
I agree with the basic value of trying to obtain an 8-point deficit threshold in the third quarter. By the third quarter, you can start thinking about finishing strategies. Your argument that the Packers are likely to score anyway is valid, but really not much of an effect on Saint Louis thinking. First, a coach has to hope that the defense can hold out. Second, failure of the defense to stop a TD means that it is just a two score game instead of a three score game, which whatever way you cut it is still the better, more managable situation. Every argument you had, that the Packer defense is too good, that the Packer offense will score anyway, says this, "Hey Rams, why did you even show up to Lambeau Field? Just go home." A coach has to always believe his team can win, and his job (as an underdog) is to create a situation where that can happen, where under the right circumstances, his team will eek out a win. To keep a game to one score is creating a situation to eek out a win. In fact, your arguments that the Packers were playing too well on both sides of the ball actually argues in favor of the trick play. The trick play is an acknowledgement by the Saint Louis coach that only a miracle is going to keep his team in it against such a good team, and this is the roll of the dice to make it happen.