New York Magazine's website has an interesting set of essays about what the world would look like if 9/11 never happened. I have not been through them all, but they are interesting Andrew Sullivan draws a scenario where President Gore (elected in 2004 with a minority of the vote following a contentious Ohio recount) finds himself drawn into conflict with a al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. A real estate appraiser says your co-op would not be worth as much as it is. Thomas Freidman imagines increasing hostility between the US and China, exacerbating tensions over North Korea. Frank Rich says, well, Bush is evil. So far though, the best answer I think was given by French philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy -- "The week would have seven Sundays."
I think this is some strange kind of navel gazing. Admittedly, I haven't read any of them (other than a synopsis of Sullivan), I think 9/11 has changed the face of the globe. It's hard to imagine how things might have played out if it hadn't happened. Maybe we'd still be in Iraq? I mean, who is to say the "Axis of Evil" speech wouldn't have happened anyway? I think the only thing that is indisputable is that the "terror" cudgel couldn't be used to beat the American populace into submission by the Administration. Given that, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he would manage to win a 2nd term.
I tend to agree with Sullivan's take the most. My take? I would imagine Bush initially beinging somewhat antagonistic toward China, then backing off. I would see Bush otherwwise beinging something of an isolationist with respect to Europe, continuing to reduce America's presence there. On the mid-east, he probably would have taken a hands off approach. The New York Times would be writting editorials complaining that Bush was doing nothing about the Palestinians, Hussein, the Taliban and Darfur. I could imagine Bush having reduced the US presence in Saudi Arabia (remember, it was Clinton who increased the US presence there as Bush senior had recalled almost all of the troops home after 1991) and maybe even lightened restrictions on Iraq trade (I saw that positied in the summer of 2001). Bush would have a good relationship with CAIR as Karl Rove sees them as an ally to get their social agenda through Congress and Bush had a long relationship with the Saudi royals. I would be complaining that Bush was a big spender. I would also be complaining that he was getting involved in social issues that need not concern him. (Then again, before 9/11, I was more of a social conservative). I would imagine that terrorism would have continued to increase, though the focus might have been different. The focus probably would have been on India and Russia, with some in continential Europe. Of course, al-Qeada would have continued to attack US interests and eventually a big attack against our airlines would have occured. They do not care who is president or what the US policy is, they are nilists are heart. Given the wishy-washy ideology of the Bush family, I doubt he would have been reeletced. I also doubt Kerry would have been the Democratic nominee. Maybe Gore, maybe Lieberman. But not Kerry (and not Dean).
Bush would have figured out another way to screw things up. That's what he's good at. He probably would have found a way to invade Iraq anyway. That never had anything to do with 9/11, I think he and his advisors figured that he would be the hero who sorted things out in the middle east by grabbing some low-hanging fruit. And the Dems would have figured out a way to screw up their golden opportunity to beat a weakened dubya running for re-election, they're good at that, too.
I disagree becuase before 9/11, Bush basically ignored the Middle East. He was far more interested in China (possibly a result of his family's old connections there) and Mexico. Had 9/11 not happened, the immigration debate would have been held in 2002, not 2006. Right before 9/11, Bush met with Fox and there was talk of a guest worker program. That would have been the big issue of the 2002 election.
Giving amnesty to illegal aliens would have been one big screwup that dubya hasn't managed yet. He was ignoring foreign policy, I'll agree, but he had the crew in place who talked him into the Iraq fiasco. I doubt that it was dubya's idea. And I'm pretty convinced that they would have pressed for it in the absence of 9/11. And I'm absolutely convinced that dubya doesn't have the good judgement to have told them that they're nuts.
He wasn't ignoring it entirely, was he? I seem to recall that they were about to roll out a big missile defense program the week of 9/11.
I really do not think of the missile program as proof he was interested in foreign policy. As I recall, that was seen in Europe as further proof that Bush had no concern on foreign policy -- missile defense was seen as proof he was an isolationist. I actually saw the system (and continue to see it) as focused against China and North Korea. After all, stopping a Russian attack would be impossible -- too many missiles. Stopping a launch from North Korea and China of a handful of missiles is possible. In any event, I think Bush was interested in foreign policy, just not Europe and the Middle East. Without 9/11, I think Bush's foreign policy would have been (i) somewhat confrontational with China, at least initially, (ii) focused on inter-American issues (such as immigration and expanding trade) and (iii) more prominence for things like the African AIDS imitative. China would have been the focus for the "neocons", the immigration and free trade issues would have been extremely controversial domestically (immigration) and internationally (free trade) and the African AIDS initiatives would have been the outlet for the "compassionate conservatives." In the end, the China policy would have changed because unlike the Soviets, the US and Chinese economies are more intertwined, the immigration and free trade policies would have been too controversial and even if Bush gave $100 Billion to African AIDS programs, he would still be attacked as stingy.
In any event, is it just me or are people actually having an intelligent political discussion on Big Soccer?
I really used to like Turtledove. But I just cannot read him anymore. In the Two Georges, he used historical figures as background and it was well done. Richard Nixon as the most sucessful used steamer salesman in North America, JFK as a slightly lecherous radical magazine publisher, and MLK as the head of the American Tory party. It all worked. But in the rest of his works, he seems to try every twisted, bizzare way to cram as many historical figures into his books, and in ways that make no sense and add nothing to the story. I think he gets paid based on the number of historcial figures he sneaks in. I have not read one of his works in about 8 years.
If 9/11 never happened, I could get a cup of coffee, an egg sandwich and a daily news right in my train station.
Re: There would have been a 11/9...Anyway, Al Qaeda wanted to spank the US badly so there might have been a 3/14 or another major terrorist attack on American soil. But the question stands since the fact that it happened like that at this moment shapes how today is, at least in the US and the parts of the World that were later affected by that. *** Strangely, I remember vividly not only the day it happened - of course - but some events of previous days and my state of mind at these moments. even if there were personal reasons for it, it really is as present in my mind as 9/11...I don't have too much problems thinking how things were before this event yet I reckon it may be different in the US.
Wouldn't you have to know why 9/11 didn't happen in order to answer to question? Did it not happen because the government foiled the plot? Did it not happen because the planes missed? Did it not happen because Bin Laden discovered his love of interior design on 9/10 and called the whole thing off? Or did it not happen because everyone on Earth was too busy holding hands and giggling at the cute little puppies frolicking through the wildflowers? I think the "why" is the most important part, I don't think you can just say "what if it didn't happen" and start making stuff up without qualifying it with a "it didn't happen because of this, which led to this".