There's the old adage that whoever's on bottom at Christmas will be relegated. Is there a similar position of "safety"? Historically, what's the highest placed team at Christmas to wind up being relegated? Does anyone know or remember some major collapses in the second half? For example, has anyone in the top half of the table at Christmas ever been relegated? Or the top 12? The way things stand right now, there's a clear drop from 16th place Fulham to 17th place Bolton -- the ONLY other place where there's such a drop between two adjacent positions is at the top. It's really starting to look like Bolton, Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham are going to duke it out for relegation. Fulham and Birmingham City are the next most vulnerable but 14th place Aston Villa is a full 10 points clear of relegation. What do you guys think? Is Aston Villa safe? Are Birmingham & Fulham comfortable -- not safe, mind you, but comfortable none-the-less?
Another question about pro/rel history? Has there ever been a situation where all three teams who were promoted one season were relegated right back down the next? Or alternatively, has there ever been a situation where all 3 teams dropped one season earned promotion right back up the next? It seems to me that Man City are safe sitting in 10th spot with 16 games remaining. Birmingham is comfortable at 7 points clear. Who was the other team that moved up last year? Was it West Brom?
I seem to recall Norwich being mid-table the year they got relegated . They nosedived in the second half of the season and havent been seen in top flight since.
A few years ago Millwall were top of Division 1 at Christmas and went down. 42 points is generally regarded as safety. Any team could do a Liverpool (3 points from 10 games) and be in serious trouble. I would say anyone from Blackburn (8th with 32 points) down could still get drawn into a relegation fight.
That's the type of standard I was wondering about. I was able to find some final tables back thru 94-95. Over the last 4 seasons, 37+ points has been safe. The two season prior to that, 40 got relegated and the one prior to that 37 got relegated. While I agree with your point about Liverpool, the teams currently at the bottom would ALSO have to start earning points at a prodigious rate compared to what they have been doing. I suppose I could see Aston Villa (or Charlton or Middlesbrough) getting drawn into a relegation battle by such a run. But I'd bet Leeds and above are safe (rather than Blackburn and above). Sure Leeds could go on a 3 points in 10 performance giving them 33 points with 6 matches to play. But I don't see two of the bottom 4 going on enough of a tear in the next 10 to get up to 33. Maybe one of them, ok, but not two. I'd say Leeds and above are safe and that Aston Villa and above are comfortable. Birmingham and Fulham need to be looking over their shoulders.
Re: Another question about pro/rel history? I found the answer to this one -- in 97 Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were promoted to the EPL and in 98 all three were relegated right back down. Another interesting factoid -- Ipswich Town earned promotion in 2000 and promptly finished 5th in their first year in the table -- the highest in the years I have available to me. The other highs are: 2001 - Blackburn 10th 1999 - Sunderland 7th 1998 - Middlesbrough 9th 1997 - Bolton 17th 1996 - Leicester City 9th 1995 - Middlesbrough 12th So 5 out of the last 7 years a promoted team has finished in the top half of the table -- bodes well for Man City staying there. Also, note that Ipswich Town was relegated the next year after finishing 5th their first year into the top division. Yet another factoid -- only once in the last 7 years have all 3 promoted teams stayed in the EPL more than one year -- last year Blackburn, Fulham and Bolton were all newly promoted and avoided relegation. The rest of the years the teams to stay a single season... 2001-01 -- Man City 99-2000 -- Watford 98-99 -- Charlton & Nottingham Forest 97-98 -- all three teams as noted above 96-97 -- Sunderland 95-96 -- Bolton So that doesn't bode well for West Brom (or Birmingham) as history says someone is going back down.
Wern't the addicks top of the heap years back at Christmas before a monumental collapse in the second half of the season led to relegation?
Re: Re: Another question about pro/rel history? West Brom would be my pick to get relegated this season.... only a miracle can save them!!
I think it was the following year that millwall went down, but they did have a huge collapse. Traditionally the 'joke' is that West Ham are like Xmas decorations, they always come down in the new year. A bit hard for them slide down the table this season though. Although not in the premiership, in 1998 my team were happily mid-table with 39 points from 29 matches, before embarking on a kamikaze run of 15 defeats in 17 matches to finish bottom of Div 1. One of the cruellest relegations was Lincoln City in 1987. It was the first year that teams were relegated from the football league into the conference. Lincoln were in a play-off position in January but slipped very badly. When their final game finished they were 23rd, one above last place (the relegation slot). Torquay were bottom, but their game has been delayed after a police dog had run onto the pitch and bitten someone. In the injury time allowed for this stoppage Torquay scored and sent Lincoln down. As it turned out Lincoln were only bottom for 30 seconds of the whole season - sadly the last 30 seconds.
Re: Re: Another question about pro/rel history? I seem to remember that within the last ten or so years (91, 92 or 93 I think) Nottingham Forest were promoted and finished third. Only to be relegated again a season or so afterwards.
Newcastle finished 3rd in their first season in the Premiership (93/94). Subsequent finishes were: 94/95: 6th 95/96: 2nd 96/97: 2nd Then we lost Keegan as manager and it all went a bit pear-shaped .... .... until last season, of course.
Slightly off-topic, but we had the original (historic) Kamikaze season in 1994/5, in which we finished in the final four of every competition we entered. 4th bottom of the Premiership (and relegated -- that was the year an extra team went down). Losing semi-finalists in the FA Cup and Worthington Cup. That was the most emotional few months you can imagine, on top of which we had the Cantona kung-fu kick and the subsequent murder of one our supporters (in revenge, at the FA Cup semi final, by Man U fans) thrown into the mix.
Wow, a whole thread about relegation and not a single mention of Everton. Mind you, our current form is hardly impressive. Being an Evertonian I am quite familiar with the relegation dog-fight. If you look at the tables over the last few years a pattern does emerge. Generally 2 of the 3 promoted teams only manage 3 seasons in the top flight: Autumn, Winter and Spring Personally I think Birmingham are far from safe and buying foreign ponces like Dugarry doesn't install much confidence either. I'd like to see West Brom stay up as I feel Megson is a quality manager and all round nice bloke but I doubt they'll make it. Sunderland must go down for their stupidity in transfers and choice of manager. Portsmouth will be a good addition to the Premiership and who doesn't like to hear Harry Redknapp whine about being "down to the bare bones". Leicester have the second spot to lose and it would be funny to see the Blades going up and the Owls in the wilderness of Division 2.
I think a lot of us would like to see West Brom stay up, but frankly I can't see them doing it. The quality just isn't there, and moreover I'm not sure they're built around enough young talent to bounce right back up if they do go down. At best, they're a workmanlike side that realistically belong in Division One, but with a manager good enough to achieve a twelve month miracle a year ago. West Ham are starting to look doomed to me...they remind me of our relegation season when we didn't win a home game until our penultimate match, four years ago. Frankly, you cannot underperform to that extent at home and stay in the Premiership and I think their last two home matches, for me, probably sealed their fate. For obvious reasons, they simply had to take maximum points off Bolton because, if you can't beat Bolton at home, who can you beat? Then, with the "Bowyer" factor and Newcastle without Shearer, that seeemed like another golden opportunity which they failed to grasp again. They have the quality to pull themselves up but with each passing week I doubt it more and more. Bolton -- who also lack the quality - pip Sunderland as the third obvious choice but then Bolton at least will fight and their experience last year will stand them in good stead. Frankly, I think Wilkinson will get it right and Sunderland will avoid the drop, but it'll be close. There's always one team who seem to plummet from mid-table to the depths and for me the likely contender is Fulham. I think they are probably good enough to avoid the drop, though, and though they don't score much, they'll do just enough to keep their heads above the waterline. Ditto Birmingham. They're barely good enough, but they will just about do what they need to. As for promotion, wide open. Portsmouth should do it, but they have over-achieved and are going to come back to earth at some point. Whatever else, I think they will be far closer to the pack when the season ends, and their promotion is less assured than some people think. Ditto Leicester, although I would put my money on them getting automatic promotion ahead of Portsmouth. Sheffield United are in a purple patch and have some very good young players. Injuries could hurt them, and they do lack depth though. For my money us (Palace) and Ipswich are the two to watch. Both had relatively poor starts, both are now coming into form, and both have quality in key places in the side. Which is not to say that either or both will go up, but I think they're the pick of those involved in the shakeup.
Minus the dog bite, this was approximately what happened to Millwall the year they went from the top to league to relegation. I don't remember them being on top at Christmas, but I'm pretty sure they were at least as late as December 1. Then they began a long slide but still were never in a relegation spot until the end of the last match day. A couple rules of thumb I've noticed: --In a 3/1/0 point system, any team at or below 1.0 pts/game is in significant danger --Over a portion of the season, it is very unusual for the gap between any two teams to change by more than 1 point per match day.
Given that second criteria, with 15 Matchdays left for most teams, then Man City and above are safe. Also, given that 1.0 pts/game is a paltry pace and that 2.0 pts/game is a torrid pace (only Arsenal are above that pace through this point in the season), then if Sunderland or West Ham or West Brom were to suddenly become torrid, they'd reach 49 or 49 or 48 points respectively. Man City and above proceeding at a paltry pace would all have at least 49 points and Blackburn would have 48. So again Man City and above are safe by that criteria. I'd still say that Leeds and above are "comfortable". Birmingham and below are all still definitely in a relegation fight. Particularly since everyone below Birmingham except Sunderland has a game in hand on Birmingham as does Charleton in the next spot above them.