Week 5 - MLS

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, May 2, 2007.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Best odds from: Soccerway.com. I’d recommend this site for much better information than Bettingadvice.com. Plus Socerway will have every MLS game and not just the weekend ones. For the record, betting every game in theory, I’m 12-13 on the year ( I missed one midweek game) , up .66 units. TOR, KC, NE, and CHV seem to be my best handles on teams. LA and DC, my worst – I’m winless. Bulls are my most profitable, up 2.9 units. I have not kept track of the Over-Under, but I know I’m way up…way up.

    Overview, no draws in 12 games. Road teams won often the last two weeks, look for that to reverse. As offenses have been poor to middling, look for teams to correct that and excel ahead, so shade towards the over if in doubt.

    For new people: 2.25 on DC means a $10 bet returns $22.50 for a net profit of $11.50 if dc wins. Over/Under is based on 2.5 total goals during the game.

    Thursday Games:
    DC United 2.25 3.25 3.1 NE Revolution
    DC pointless and has just lost to CLB with 2 weeks to prepare. NE just goes out and beats you. Twellman is hot. DC will score and find a way to lose. Bet the streak until it’s over. The only reason to take DC is that MLS has a way of gifting a call here and there to dc with alarming consistency. Personally I think MLS is a better entity when dc sucks, but I’m admittedly biased.
    NE 3.1 - Over

    Saturday Games:
    Colorado 2.1 3.2 3.4 Houston
    I like Colorado at home against anyone. Houston is struggling to score goals and Denver isn’t ever a good place to cure that particular malady.
    COL 2.1- under

    RSL 2.6 3.1 2.62 NY
    NY is better in every area. The Bruce iis again doing a job, no shock there. Week 5 and no one has scored NY yet. RSL loses at home more than often. Adu has predictably done nothing. Klein has little help in either getting him the ball or finishing in the box. The road prie on NY should tell you what you need to know. Bet the streaks until they are over.
    NY 2.62 – Over

    KC 2.07 3.2 3.5 Columbus
    Not an easy game to predict. KC only wins at home, CLB only draws away. KC scores 3x as many goals as CLB, CLB allows half as many as KC, both teams occasionally win in the other building, both teams occasionally blow out the other at home. The injury report has no Sealy for KC, but EJ is smoking hot and on top of MLS scoring. Gonzales might by MLS’ best defender. I can’t think of a good reason to actually bet this game. KC 2.07 and the under if I had to.

    Sunday Games:
    NE 2.14 3.2 3.3 Chicago
    NE is playing on short rest but at home. Revs also score often at home, but I don’t think CHI cares. Chicago is on full rest and unbeaten. CHI is defensively much better than in ’06, they are young, and out working teams. NE has a few shortcomings of age that can be exposed by speed. This is a good spot to take a flyer on a roadie.
    CHI 3.3 – Over

    DC 2.24 3.2 3.2 Chivas
    DC with a second chance at home this week to earn points. Chivas is 2-0 at home at 2-0 on the road or @LA. Preki has called out Guevara publicly and there should be some sort of reaction. Hard to tell if it will be a good outing by Guevara – who typically has good games v dc anyway or if Preki has just started the slide towards losing a team. 3 time zone travel always favors the home team by about a half of a goal or more. I believe Chivas is more than a half goal better but might not be properly motivated. DC will still be pointless and will be under distinctly higher pressure. There’s nothing about either price that works for my money. When in doubt, favor the home team. Definitely take the over here. I would wait until after the NE result, however as DC will not under any circumstances win both games.
    DC 2.24 – Over

    Good luck!
    -WC
     
  2. Magpie Maniac

    Magpie Maniac Member

    Dec 28, 2001
    North Carolina, USA
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nice write-up. I'm taking NYRB and the Rapids.
     
  3. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    OK then, good to know we both suck...

    I got 2 right, you just picked the wrong two. I'm doing pretty well on the Over/Under.

    In retrospect, Houston had to break out sometime, NY will not have a GK go down in the 72nd minute every game, I should have planned on dc getting a bogus pk in both games - as they do every week at home, and apparently NE is still very good at home.

    NE and NY are both on 5 game unbeaten strings. With that, I'm not sure why I bet against a streak team at home. Apparently I need an editor. Turning the page...
     

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