Week 16 Attendence Predictions (Due FRI 7:30 ET)

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by scaryice, Jul 10, 2005.

  1. TopDogg

    TopDogg Member

    Jan 31, 2000
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Friday, July 15

    DC-SJ 17,230

    Saturday, July 16

    CHI-CLB 43,750
    MET-COL 11,100
    NE-DAL 20,570
    KC-RSL 12,200
    LA-CHV 27,000
     
  2. kpaulson

    kpaulson New Member

    Jun 16, 2000
    Washington DC
    From Peter Wilt on attendance:

    “But there is no guarantee the game is going to make money. There is also the tendency that these big games drain attendance from the games around them. This year, Chicago fans have had the opportunity to watch England vs. USA, Mexico vs. Poland, Real Madrid vs. Chivas, Club America vs. the Polish club coming in, and A.C. Milan vs. the Fire. If you are a youth soccer club and you are planning your one outing of the year, there is a good chance you will pick a high-profile event like that rather than a traditional regular-season MLS game. It can cannibalize your regular attendance.”

    http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/sportsstory.asp?id=73967

    I think there's a couple of points you can make based on that:

    (1) DHs don't inflate average attendance to the extent that they just shift fans away from attending normal MLS matches they would have attended anyway.

    (2) Given that, despite numerous discussions here about how median is a better indicator of where the league stands, sometimes it won't make sense to cut out these big attendances on the assumption that they're outliers.

    My guess is that teams like Real Madrid and Chelsea-- European powerhouses that appeal to youth soccer teams and the casual, non-ethnic fan-- probably canibalize attendance to a much greater extent than Mexican teams, which by and large seem to bring in a different audience from regular MLS matches.
     
  3. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    DC-SJ 15,500
    CHI-CLB 53,000
    MET-COL 12,000
    NE-FCD 23,000
    KC-RSL 11,500
    LA-CHV 27,000
     
  4. Spiker2626

    Spiker2626 New Member

    Mar 30, 2001
    Mason, Ohio
    Friday, July 15

    DC-SJ 15,203

    Saturday, July 16

    CHI-CLB 51,320
    MET-COL 12,245
    NE-DAL 22,245
    KC-RSL 12,975
    LA-CHV 27,000
     
  5. Len

    Len Member+

    Club: Dallas Tornado
    Jan 18, 1999
    Everywhere and Nowhere.....I'm the wind, baby.

    Due to this info, I'll change my NE prediction to 20,000.
     
  6. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Jun 25, 2003
    dc
    I know alot of people who do this. They only have the time or money to make one game a month so they just plan to go to the doubleheaders. It definately has an effect on the other games.
     
  7. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Dc-16,000
    Chi-47,000
    Met-12,000
    Ne-24,000
    Kc-10,500
    La-27,000
     
  8. SoccerNova2009

    SoccerNova2009 New Member

    Aug 19, 2000
    probably at a bar
    Friday, July 15

    DC-SJ 15,700

    Saturday, July 16

    CHI-CLB 51,000
    MET-COL 11,100
    NE-DAL 22,500
    KC-RSL 20,100
    LA-CHV 27,000


    It is a tricky week with the double/triple headers and then with the KC Break the Record/Price Chopper promotion (got 30,308 in 2003 and 24,740 last year) Probably will slip again this year since everyone says KC doesn't advertise their games anymore. I am still guessing pretty high for KC and a good week for MLS all around.
     
  9. Stupid_American

    Stupid_American Member+

    Jan 8, 2003
    New York, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd like to change my CHI-COL to 50,554 and my KC-RSL to 14,008
     
  10. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Jun 25, 2003
    dc
    Hey you, This isnt a game of poker quit bluffing.
     
  11. mbar

    mbar Member+

    Apr 30, 1999
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd like to change my Chicago prediction to 48,000 and my NE prediction to 21,000.
     
  12. L.A. SOCCER NATION

    L.A. SOCCER NATION ONLY IN L.A.

    Jun 17, 2005
    LOS ANGELES
     
  13. kjo199

    kjo199 Member

    Mar 29, 2005
    NYC
    Dc-sj 15,000
    Chi-clb 45,000
    Met-col 12,200
    Ne-fcd 21,000
    Kc-rsl 11,000
    La-chv 27,000
     
  14. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Updated picks

    Dc 15,100
    Chi 48,650
    Njm 13,100
    Ne 20,500
    Kc 20,401
    La 27,000
    <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
     
  15. Len

    Len Member+

    Club: Dallas Tornado
    Jan 18, 1999
    Everywhere and Nowhere.....I'm the wind, baby.
    WARNING: THIS POST IS DRIVEL, BUT IS BEINGING POSTED DUE TO MY LACK OF DESIRE TO FINISH "HONEY D0" LIST.

    You knooooooooow; they should have played the Real Madrid vs Chivas game in Salt Lake. Salt Lake and Chivas LA could have played first like a JV game, followed by the big boys. It would also give the folks in Salt Lake a chance to say, "Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. So THAT'S what it's suppose to look like."

    You could also have.........OHMYGOD!WIFE'SHOMEGOTTAGO,BYE!
     
  16. Centennial

    Centennial Member+

    Apr 4, 2003
    Centennial
    DC-SJ 15,000
    CHI-CLB 50,000
    MET-COL 11,800
    NE-DAL 23,000
    KC-RSL 10,000
    LA-CHV 27,000
    <!-- / message -->
    Great artificially inflated week!!!!
     
  17. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I'm gonna change my KC pick to 15,000
     
  18. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    ok, game on
     
  19. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
  20. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Change my New England pick to 22,000 & my Kansas City pick to 14,500
     
  21. BBBulldog

    BBBulldog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 25, 2004
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    downpours for last 2 days, don't you guys take forecast in calculations? :D
     
  22. spidergoose

    spidergoose Member

    Nov 2, 2004
    Annapolis
    Club:
    DC United
    Also the Washington beltway was beyond ********ed last night. I was afraid we might not break 10,000, but the crowd surprised me.
     
  23. wufc

    wufc Member

    May 1, 2005
    UC Irvine
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Man, is the Superclasico gonna sell out? There are tickets still avalible for all sections.
     
  24. Centennial

    Centennial Member+

    Apr 4, 2003
    Centennial
    you should have sent this e-mail yesterday. You would have caused a freinzy of prediction changes.
     
  25. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Too late.
     

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