I much prefer this format over any format CONCACAF ever has done. Maybe going forward in a non pandemic world that first round could be home and away.
Although going forward more teams qualify and with the region hosting the World Cup in 2026 you lose Canada, Mexico and USA in qualifying.
So looked into this a little more CONCACAF has 6 slots. That's including host spots which hasn't been decided but expected that all 3 host countries will get an automatic bid. Every country except UEFA get one team in playoff tournament and host confederation gets an additional team. So after 3 autobids go to Canada, Mexico and USA. They get 3 more automatic bids and 2 wildcats slots into playoffs. So 35 CONCACAF teams go to 32. So you can do 8 groups of 4 and Group winners advance to Octagonal. From the Octagonal top 3 automatically qualify and 4th and 5th place team advance to playoff tournament.
Another potential format for 2026 is after 3 hosts get autobids, the top 2 automatically advance to Octagonal. The other 30 are broken into 6 groups of 5. You can either have them play home and away, a total of 8 matches in opening round or just play everyone once for a total of 4. You could then have just Group winners advance to Octagonal or you can have both group winners and group runners up advance to a playoff round and playoff round winners advance to Octagonal. Once you get to Octagonal top 3 advance to World Cup and 4th and 5th place advance to Intercontinental playoffs.
Now going beyond 2026. Given the amount of slots are the same. I'd call for a Decagonal if that's even a word. 10 team final round. Like South America. To get to that point. Top 5 automatically advance to final round. Now we have 30 teams for first round. We could do 10 groups of 3 teams. For 4 games with group winners advancing to Second round two legged playoff round. The Second Round playoff winners advance to Decagonal Final Round. What to do with other 25 teams during Decagonal? Put them into 5 groups of 5 play an 8 game league format. 5 group winners advance to Tier 2 playoffs. 5 Group runners up and Best 3rd place team play a play in round to get into Tier 2 playoff tournament. Those 3 winners give you 8 teams to play a home and away 8 team tournament. Now to tie that in with Final Round Decagonal. Top 6 advance to World Cup. 7th, 8th and 9th place, plus Tier 2 playoff winner play mini 4 team tournament to see who gets Intercontinental playoff spot.
This only works if Concacaf settles on just one Nations League each WC cycle (given available matchdays), in which case they'd have to figure out how/when to do qualifying for the 2nd Gold Cup...unless they settle on one Gold Cup as well. Then we're all set, except for leaving the DOM-TOM teams in the cold...or, we just let them in the Tier II Tournament. This would bring the field up to 31, so we can play it WC-style: group stage (7 groups of 4 + 1 group of 3, everyone plays home and away), top 2 in each group advance to R16, and it's played through to a Final. And if a non-FIFA team wins the tournament, then Concacaf gives 'em a trophy and vacates the Tier II berth in the 7th-place playoff, i.e. it would now be 8 vs. 9, winner vs. 7 in the final. Or, as I'd prefer, they just let the 7th place team go straight to the intercontinental playoff tournament.
One Nation's League. Still 2 Gold Cups. Using WCQ partially as qualifying for the Gold Cup. So for Gold Cup top 5 automatically qualify. The 10 Round 1 Group winners now gives you 15. To get to 16 and include the CONCACAF members who aren't FIFA members is have a special qualifying in June the summer before the next Gold Cup, the winner of that gets the non FIFA member but CONCACAF member slot for 16.
One thing I left out is the Tier 2 phase for 2026. After you get to the Octagonal. You now have 24 teams dropped into phase 2. Those 24 teams are divided into 4 teams of 6. They play home and away 10 matches total. Group winners advance to Phase 2 knockout phase for a total of 4 teams. They play two legged matches for a Tier 2 semi final and final. The winner of Tier 2 plays a two legged knockout match with the 5th place team from the Octagonal. The winner of that gets the host region extra slot for 2026. The 4th place team get in Octagonal gets the normal CONCACAF slot forafor the playofftplayoff tournament.T he top 3 from Octagonal get the World Cup births. This gives teams way more WCQ matches than in the past typically played only 2 or 6 matches. This gives everyone a minimum of 14. In both scenarios Round 1 you get 6 or 4 depending on which format you select. Then even if you didn't advance you get a second chance essentially in Tier 2 with a minimum 10 games to try and qualify that way. This will help those smaller nation's much more in developing as well as allowing the regions better teams to play each other in the Octagonal. Giving them good matches against the regions best. This
Now for CONMEBOL in 2026 , keep the exact same format.10 teams, 18 total matches. Top 6 qualify directly to World Cup, 7th place team gets Intercontinental Playoff Tournament slot.
Now for AFC (Asia) 12 teams ranked 35-46 play in two legged playoffs to see who gets into second round. Top 34 teams automatically qualify for second round. Second Round is 40 teams . 8 groups of 5 teams each Group winners and group runners up advance to Third Round. A total of 16 teams. Third Round is 16 teams divided into 4 Groups of 4. Group winners and runners up advance to World Cup. They get the 8 automatic AFC spots. The third place teams are placed into playoff for Intercontinental Playoff spot. Winner of that gets Intercontinental Playoff Tournament slot.
CAF (Africa) has been awarded 9 slots. CAF format is probably the most different to what it is now. CAF has 54 teams. I'd have the teams ranked 46 get a bye into the sexotround and teams 47-54 playoff to see who gets the final four spots in the second round. In the second round you have 50 teams total. Those 50 teams would be divided into 10 groups of 5 teams each. Group winners and runners up advance to make Ito 20. The next round of qualification would have 20 teams. 4 Groups total of 5 teams each. The group winners and runners up make the world cup. The four 3rd place teams would have a knockout tournament to determine CAF's 9th World Cup spot. The runner up would advance to the Intercontinental playoff tournament.
UEFA (Europe) has been awarded 16 slots. UEFA does not get a spot in the Intercontinental playoff tournament. 10 groups of 5 or 6 winners. 10 group winners advance to World Cup. 10 group runners up along with best two nation's league teams not already advanced go to playoff round. The 12 playoff round teams plta yhome and away against each other for UEFA's final 6 World Cup slots.
For OFC (Oceania) use same format they do know. With OFC Final winner getting World Cup spot and runners-up getting Intercontinental Playoff Spot.
It seems you have it all figured out for 2026 qualifying for each confederation and honestly FIFA could learn from you
Just to be clear: this special qualifying would be exclusively for the non-FIFA-affiliated teams? If that's the case, you could just play it in March before the Gold Cup, since they're not gonna be busy with WCQ anyways. The major problem there is that if they're playing de facto Hexes with only 1 out of 6 surviving in each group, a bunch of teams will be practically (if not mathematically) eliminated halfway in, and that's where the shenanigans begin - teams giving up home games to save on travel, playing at neutral venues, or just dropping out entirely.
Yes it would be non& affiliated teams only.. Another option for Tier 2 is do 8 groups of 3. You're only playing 4 games in that scenario, but you avoid some dead rubber scenarios you referred to. Have the group winners advance to an 8 team knockout tournament to decide the Tier 2 winner. Which option do you like better?
The more I think about it, the more I like it. To elongate it (w/o running into the issue of dead rubbers), I would suggest the following setup: - All non-FIFA-affiliated teams ranked by performance in the last Nations League. - September before the Gold Cup: home-and-away QFs (3 v. 6, 4 v. 5, 1-2 get byes). If/when Saint-Barthélémy gets Concacaf membership, then you throw in a 2 v. 7 QF. - November before the Gold Cup: home-and-away SFs - March before the Gold Cup: home-and-away Final Considering that the Octagonal requires 14 matchdays, there's even enough time for a 16-team knockout tournament. An example (DOM-TOM tourney is for non-FIFA-affiliated teams): --- May 2022: Nations League matchdays 1-2 June 2022: Nations League matchdays 3-4 September 2022: Nations League matchdays 5-6 November/December 2022: FIFA World Cup March 2023: Nations League finals June 2023: Gold Cup September 2023: friendlies October 2023: WCQ Round 1 groups, matchdays 1-2 November 2023: WCQ Round 1 groups, matchdays 3-4 March 2024: WCQ Round 1 groups, matchdays 5-6 June 2024: Octagonal matchdays 1-2, Tier II group stage matchdays 1-2 September 2024: Octagonal matchdays 3-4, Tier II group stage matchdays 3-4, DOM-TOM tourney QFs October 2024: Octagonal matchdays 5-6, Tier II group stage matchdays 5-6 November 2024: Octagonal matchdays 7-8, Tier II Round of 16, DOM-TOM tourney SFs March 2025: Octagonal matchdays 9-10, Tier II quarterfinals, DOM-TOM tourney final (USA, CAN, MEX + Octagonal participants + Tier II semifinalists + DOM-TOM winner makes your Gold Cup field) June 2025: Octagonal matchdays 11-12, Tier II semifinals July 2025: Gold Cup September 2025: Octagonal matchdays 13-14, Tier II Final October 2025: 5th-place playoff November 2025: Intercontinental playoff tournament March 2026: friendlies June 2026: FIFA World Cup
Btw @Holiday_Jenkins fleshing out the calendar like this should alert you to an issue with your Decagonal suggestion for the 2030 WC cycle: it would have to start no later than November 2027, in which case there's not enough time to have both a Nations League and preliminary qualifying rounds to cut the field for the Decagonal down to 10. So either Concacaf abandons the Nations League (which - ok, I don't think there would be a lot of pushback, but it would screw over the DOM-TOM teams), or it decides that after the Nations League and the Gold Cup happen, the field for the Decagonal would be based immediately on FIFA rankings. Based on Concacaf's experience with the initial format for 2022 WCQ, I think using FIFA rankings would be palatable as long as it's made public knowledge well in advance.
You're right. I'd prefer to eliminate the nations league as the new qualification process gives smaller nations more meaningful matches agaist teams of a similar pedigree. If they ultimately decided on keeping the nations league I'd be fine with decagonal based on FIFA rankings and grouping the others in Tier 2 from the start. If we did it the way of the ladder. I'd to 4 groups of 6 with top 4 advancing to 16 team two legged knockout phase. Decagonal teams do their league style qualification with top 6 advancing to World Cup and 7th place playing tier 2 team in playoff for Intercontinental Playoffs Tournament spot.
This is the only change to what we do now and actually involves less match days (4 games less before the internal playoffs). It would work. Currently teams in round 3 also qualify for the Asian Cup a year after the world cup with most teams who miss out having an opportunity to qualify for the Asian Cup in a further group stage. If that stays that means there are 4 less spots for teams eliminated in stage 2.
I hate when almost every team gets to play in a group stage, but not every team. I also don't like having four third place teams needing two playoff rounds. CAF has separate qualifying for the Africa Cup of Nations, and they use the fewest WCQ matchdays of any confederation with the possible exception of OFC. 54 teams fit 9 winner-take-all groups of 6, but there would be too many meaningless games. CAF used to end WCQs with 5 winner-take-all groups of 6. The only way 9 groups of 6 would work is if it doubled as Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. That has 24 teams, so the top 2 in each group and 6 third place teams could qualify assuming the host was one of those 24. The host would play only as WCQs. The top 3 third place teams could qualify with the other 6 playing each other for 3 spots. Including the playoff, that WCQs and African Cup of Nations qualifiers combined done with only 12 matchdays. Another possibility with every team in a group stage is 18 groups of 3 with the winners advancing to 3 groups of 6 that each qualify 3 teams. I don't like groups of 3, but it would have minnows play 4 games rather than 10. The 18 Round 1 winners and 6 second place teams (5 second place teams if the host isn't a group winner or one of the top 6 second place teams) would qualify for an Africa Cup of Nations. The second place teams could play playoffs for the Africa Cup of Nations while the top 18 played WCQs. The top 6 second place teams could get a bye and face the winners of 6 pairings of the bottom 12 second place teams. Alternatively, there could be another group stage.
I think they did this once - for 2006 (although 2002 had 5 groups of 5 which is close). The 2006 version actually covered WC2006 (Group winners) and AFCON2006 (1st-3rd) so the groups weren't 100% winner take all (in terms of there being "dead rubbers" at the end - they were in terms of WC quals). 2010 was groups of 4 at the end (again with 1-3 going to AFCON) You might want to note that the CAF official who approved the structure thought it was the dumbest thing he did - because half the countries had no football for the 2 years after they were eliminated from the preliminary round and many African governments effectively dissolved their national programs as a result. J