WC 2018 Group B: Spain Portugal Iran Morocco

Discussion in 'GROUP B: Portugal, Spain, Iran, Morocco' started by +PL+, Dec 1, 2017.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    While Iran could lose to Turkey and it would probably be a tough match and a good test for us, the notion by Salas that Iran winning would be somehow shocking is ridiculous.
     
  2. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    The Turkey match, in any case, is still a couple of months away. The upcoming friendlies to focus on for me are the games between Iran against Tunisia and Algeria and the games between Morocco and Serbia and Uzbekistan. Those matches will be played over the next two weeks and, by then, we will have a more grounded view on how these teams are doing.
     
  3. Salas033

    Salas033 Member

    Juventus
    Dec 15, 2017
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    Morocco
    I repeat that it would be shocking for Iran to beat Turkey in Turkey. That would be very humiliating for the Turks, and Turks will not let it happen. That does not even take into consideration that Turkey (despite all of their current issues) in on a different level than Iran football-wise. I don't care how consistent Iran has been. Iran still plays in Asia where it is much easier to be consistent. If Turkey played in AFC they wouldn't miss a single Word Cup.
     
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  4. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Iran's consistency hasn't been just against Asian teams, but equally in its friendlies against non-Asian teams. In any case, Turkey ranks behind Iran according to both ELO and FIFA. Even historically, Turkey (#34) rates right below Iran (#33). These rankings might not tell the story with perfect accuracy, but they aren't as off as your comments.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings
     
  5. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Iran plays a very direct style and I admire the way they can quickly put shots on goal as if they are passing it into the back of the net on a counter.

    I think that direct counter style can hurt a team like Turkey but we shall see.
    It is put up or shut up time for a lot of teams these next few months.
     
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  6. MarocFAN

    MarocFAN Member

    May 18, 2006
    Morocco/Germany
    The hype is slowly building up. Can't wait for next week's matches. I will probably also watch the friendlies of our neighbors against Iran.
     
  7. Fataliste

    Fataliste Member

    Feb 3, 2018
    Fez
    Tunisia doesn't have outstanding players but it has always been a tactically disciplined team. I don't think it will be an easy game for Iran.
     
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  8. Salas033

    Salas033 Member

    Juventus
    Dec 15, 2017
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    Morocco
    Bureaucratic thinking applied to football.. Gotta love it. Keep manipulating your data. A team that reached the Semis of a World Cup and the Euro Championship equals or is worse historically than a team that won one game in its WC history... Lolz.
     
  9. Perspolis#1

    Perspolis#1 Member+

    Jun 27, 2011
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Uzbekistan is the most hot-cold team possibly out of all the federations in FIFA.

    Their midfield is old now so I expect Morocco to have an edge but its not a light team.
     
  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    #1885 Iranian Monitor, Mar 18, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2018
    The fact that we have 1 win, 3 draws, and 8 losses at the World Cup isn't surprising if you go by how we have ranked in football based on either ELO or FIFA. Even at the World Cup, Iran has never lost to a side that has been ranked below us by either FIFA/ELO. The fact is that even Bosnia which defeated Iran was higher ranked at the time according to ELO and FIFA and the same was certainly true of Argentina, Portugal, Mexico, Germany, Yugoslavia, as well as the sides that beat us in ancient times in World Cup 1978 (Holland and Peru).

    Put differently, while there are teams that have under-performed or over-performed based on their ELO/FIFA ranking, until now, Iran hasn't been one of those teams. In Asia, we haven't lost in a long time and, even historically, rarely lose matches (even if some of our few unexpected losses have been quite painful and critical) because we usually rank right there either as #1 or among the top 3-4. Internationally, Iran is a top 35 type team which has improved its historic ranking by ELO to now be a top 25 team. The proper expectations from Iran should be in that context, even if Iranian fans will hope to see us do better.

    p.s.
    Even in our friendlies in this World Cup cycle, the only team we beat that was higher ranked than Iran was Chile. Otherwise, none of the teams we played were ranked above us and we got the results we were supposed to get based on our rankings. Not better not worse. Basically, if you go by rankings as opposed to your hot air evaluations, historically you wouldn't lose that often betting on or against Iran depending who we are playing.
     
  11. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    #1886 Iranian Monitor, Mar 18, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2018
    I agree it won't be an easy match. In fact, Tunisia is one of those rare teams that rates very differently depending on whether you trust ELO or FIFA rankings. According to ELO, Tunisia ranks #53, well below Iran at #22. According to FIFA, however, Tunisia ranks #27 and above Iran at #33. All in all, I believe Iran against Tunisia will likely end in a draw. But while as a fan of Iran who hasn't seen Iran lose a match in many years, I would be disappointed if we lost to Tunisia, the fact is that Tunisia at home (and boosted by the recent addition of several French born players), aren't going to be an easy game for us. And I don't think they will be. My prediction is that the game will end in a draw.
     
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  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Uzbekistan rates below Morocco according to both ELO and FIFA and Morocco should have every reason to beat them in Casablanca. They are also simply a weaker side than Iran, exemplified by the fact that their h2h record against us is 6 wins for Iran (including in the last 3 matches against them), 3 draws, and only 1 win against us. And by the fact that they rank well below Iran by both FIFA and ELO.

    But the main reason I don't think Uzbekistan is a good test for Iran is because they are stylistically very different than Iran (in particular, Iran in the Queiroz era). Leaving aside the fact that Uzbekistan are going through a rebuilding phase and will be using a lot of their U23 players in the Morocco game, the truth is that Uzbekistan have often showed to me an inability to keep their composure and tactical discipline when they fall behind. In particular, when they fall behind away from home. If they can address that failing, they will be able to have at least a competitive match against Morocco. If not, they can lose by 2-3 goals easily.
     
  13. Salas033

    Salas033 Member

    Juventus
    Dec 15, 2017
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    Morocco
    #1888 Salas033, Mar 19, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2018
    Right before the 1998 WC, Morocco was ranked 10th in the Fifa ranking and France was 18th, and even as a little kid I knew that that ranking was bullshit because Morocco was not a top 10 team and France was. FIFA and ELO rankings can be useful to give a general picture but they are also continuously changing and often flawed. The fact that they are continuously changing is the ultimate proof that you cannot use them blindly to make predictions as you do most of the time. Get it? Let me break it down for you a little bit more ;) If those rankings could be relied on to make predictions, then Peru would still be 50th as it was 3 years ago and Morocco would be 80th as it was two years ago because both teams would have lost most games against teams that are ranked higher than them like Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia etc in Peru's case and Cap Verde, Ivory Coast, Tunisia etc in Morocco's case. Ivory Coast would also still be 19th as it was 3 years ago and Algeria 18th because they would have beaten the teams that are ranked below them (AKA all of Africa)... This reality will not change the way that you see things because you rely on rankings for your truth and logic, and moving away from that would cause you dizziness but I still wanted to throw it out there just for fun haha
     
  14. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    #1889 Iranian Monitor, Mar 19, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2018
    I can try to explain some obvious things which you miss in your post, while making sure you understand my position, but what's the point anyway? At the end of the day, the results will make their own case. Those results are what underpin -- however imperfectly -- the ranking that do exist. If a team does well, its ranking will improve and if it doesn't it won't.

    Anyway, you have used your adjectives in terms of predictions about these games. Why not just give your predictions instead? Let us start with the following: Iran v Tunisia. Morocco v Serbia. These are games which will be played shortly. My prediction is there: Iran will either win or draw against Tunisia. As for Morocco and Serbia, both pose more questions than answer in my mind. My sense is that Serbia will win narrowly or the game will end in a draw. To make my predictions more concrete, I predict Tunisia v Iran to end 1:1. I predict Serbia v Morocco to end 2:1 (in favor of Serbia).
     
  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    #1890 Iranian Monitor, Mar 19, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2018
    While I wait for Salas to post his actual predictions, let me mention one thing on rankings. My view is that if you average a side's historic ELO rating with their current ELO rating, you will not do badly in predicting a match all other things such as venue, teams being fielded, etc being taken into account as well. The only confederation who presents a problem to me is CAF, since they seem underrated by ELO given that they show both more parity and more inconsistency among their top 20 than is ordinarily the case elsewhere. Those two facts (parity and inconsistency) can depress a side's rankings in a methodology like the one used by ELO. However, ultimately, it is difficult to predict result for teams that are simply inconsistent!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings
    p.s.
    Since Peru was mentioned by Salas, in my methodology, I would take Peru's historic rating (35) and average it with their current rating (12) and my expectation of them would generally be in that range, namely the expectation I would have of a top 20-25 team. In Iran's case, I would take our historic ELO rating (33) and our current rating (22) and when I average it (around 27), I would expect from Iran results you should expect from a top 25-30 side.
     
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Going back to my earlier post, my real point was that despite Iran's mediocre World Cup record, it isn't a record that one couldn't expect from a side that rates as Iran would rate (historically, merely in the top 30-35 according to ELO and never really better than top 20-25). For a tournament that is supposedly about showcasing the best 32 teams (admitting that is not the only criteria), a consistent side like Iran will tend to get a result against the weaker sides it faces and lose (usually by a narrow enough margin) against the higher ranked teams that go against it. In this context, the fact that Iran hasn't managed to finish among the top 16 at the World Cup (since the expansion to 32 teams) isn't really surprising. That some others who would have rated below the top 20 (using the methodology I suggest) would end up finishing among the top 16 is what would be somewhat surprising. But football is, of course, a game that has its surprises and upsets and also teams will show either improving or declining form and may occasionally also be helped by their draw, match ups etc. So you aren't going to get perfect predictions using any methodology.
     
  17. artielange84

    artielange84 Member

    Aug 7, 2014
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Never a truer word spoken
     
  18. HansWorldCup

    HansWorldCup Member

    Roma
    Sweden
    Jan 10, 2018
    Tunisias best player gonna miss the friendy agains Iran.
     
  19. Nani_17

    Nani_17 Member+

    Nov 3, 2011
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Can you tell me what he was trying to say?
     
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  20. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Tunisia will have a strong lineup against Iran regardless, particularly with 4 former French youth internationals to include Leicester City's Benaloune (a defender who had previously rejected overtures to play for Tunisia), having recently joined their squad. But I did read a piece alluding to what you mention.
    http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/43473970
    Tunisia star Msakni out for 10 days with injury and will miss friendlies
     
  21. MarocFAN

    MarocFAN Member

    May 18, 2006
    Morocco/Germany
    Bono will probably miss both morocco friendlies.
     
  22. artielange84

    artielange84 Member

    Aug 7, 2014
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Sure

    Group B contains no strong teams. There are however entertaining teams. Sometimes, Spain and Portugal can be strong teams, so this should be interesting
     
  23. HansWorldCup

    HansWorldCup Member

    Roma
    Sweden
    Jan 10, 2018
    Yepp for sure, i have followed Tunisia pretty much lately. I dont know why, maybe because no one seems to like them.
    I still think he is very important for them. I really like Ferjani Sassi and Naim Sliti too!
    Gonna be fun to see the new players you mention against Iran.
     
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  24. Nani_17

    Nani_17 Member+

    Nov 3, 2011
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Ah okay. Now the more difficult part is trying to figure out in what world Spain and Portugal are not strong teams. By simple deduction(Opinions aside) that would mean only Germany are strong, maybe Brazil. Also if there are only 2 or 3 "strong teams" does that mean 4 to 20 are pretty strong, and 20 to 50 are mediocre? From then on it's varying degrees of sh$t.

    In other words, saying the earth is flat might be about as "true" as his comment.
     
  25. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    Frankly, I can't help laugh, not so much on the substance of the interpretation to the comment by "123 Watson", but the idea that a cryptic post that wasn't clear at all -- and appeared quite jumbled -- would elicit a response like the one that followed it: "never a truer word spoken"!:)
     
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