USYNT International Transfers

Rather than overloading a thread not meant to discuss transfers, I though I'd create one.

We can use this to discuss all things related to transfers for YNT and U23 US players. Contracts, market values, club intentions, etc - this can just be a catch all place to discuss these topics.

I think there is a lot of misconceptions about transfers in this thread. Not that anyone is wrong, but it seems that there are vastly different thoughts on how the transfer market works and why clubs sell players. I reluctantly posted in the other thread, but will move this post here to generate the discussion.

If you truly break it down, there are a limited amount of reasons clubs sell players.

• A club in financial problems that needs capital
• A player that has a rewarding market value AND the club has a player just as good or better waiting in the wings
• A player who has a contract nearing the end and a new contract can't be agreed upon - risking the player leaving on a free if he is willing to wait the current contract out.
• A player is such a hassle that a reduce fee is worth getting rid of him

I won't throw out percentages, because I don't know them, but I would guess 90% of transfers fall under one of these reasons.

I realize Garber got on the podium and stated "we need to become a selling league", but I don't think that happens just because someone says. If we look at MLS and apply the league and specific player situations to the transfer situations above, they rarely fit. With a single entity structure, no team will ever face a decision to sell a player in order to meet next months payroll. As for the second reason, we just haven't seen this come up very often. I expect this to be the main reason for transfers in MLS down the road. The third reason, although possible in MLS, won't happen as often due to a) club option years that are often part of MLS contracts and b) the relatively low salary paid to American players early in their career.

To be clear, I can't think of more than a handful examples (worldwide) of clubs selling players just to be nice and because the player wants to move. There is rational reasoning for most transfers around the world that simply don't apply to MLS. Lower level leagues sell players to higher level leagues because it is a financial windfall they just can't pass up. Often times the fee will cover years of operational expenses. This also applies to huge money transfers for young players. Monaco didn't want to sell Mbappe, but the $145M offer forced their hand as they are never going to pass up that amount of money. Brazilian clubs can't afford to pass up $40M-$60M transfer fees either.

If I am not mistaken, the largest ever transfer fee paid for an American player playing in the MLS was Jozy Altidores $6.5M fee from NYRB to Villareal. That was over 10 years ago. Part of the current issue is MLS vastly overvalues their players. They see the amount of money spent around the world and want to be a part of it, but haven't had the history to be a true player in the market. Yes, there will always be exceptions. Another issue is, the big European clubs that pay big transfer fees are beginning to move away from the 22-26 year old purchases and are looking more in the 18-21 year old range. Surely, everyone has noticed we have a ton more 18-20 year olds moving to Europe than we do older players. Part of this is due to MLS not abiding by TC/SP rules in the past, but the other part is simply the age in which these clubs desire players.

To speak on a couple of specific examples, we can stick to the ever present FCD. Why in the world would FCD ever sell Reggie Cannon? He has established himself as one of the best American RB's, plays nearly every minute for his club, is on a $82k/year wage and the club has no one behind him that is approaching his level. No club is going to sell a player in that situation, even if they can get $2M-$3M for him. They will continue to activate his option until they can't any longer, or until Reggie and his agent make it very clear to the club that he is 100% leaving when his deal runs out. Even in that case, the club is getting a full International at $82k/yr, which is essentially the same gain as them selling him for a couple of million. As much as I like the player, I don't think his market value is much above $5M. The fact he hasn't been sold yet tells me a)FCD thinks he's worth much more than the offers they have received or b)there is more value to the club to have him finish out his contract at $82k than selling him for less than their valuation.

The other misconception I see being discussed is people think clubs are actively talking to other clubs about buying their players. This simple doesn't happen very often unless one of the 3 criteria above are in play. Transfers are 9 times out of 10 initiated by the player and the players agent, not the club.

Ask yourself, why would FCD have any desire to sell Pomykal at the moment? There is no logical reason for them to sell an important part of their team. Sure, if some club inquired about him and was willing to pay tens of millions, I am sure they would listen and eventually sell, but outside of that, there is no pressing reason to sell the player. If they had an intention to move him, they could have just activated his option and not give him a $600k raise. No club is going to sell a player just to be nice. It has to make sense financially and competitively.

A MLS club has one job, to compete for trophies. If selling a player gives them the financial means to get closer to winning a trophy, they will do it. If not, they aren't going to do so just to be nice. With a season that is essentially meaningless in the MLS and all the focus on winning the playoffs, these MLS teams will be reluctant to sell a key player. After all, that player only has to help them win 6 or 7 games at the end of the season to win a trophy.

I stated in another thread that the perception of American players is starting to get better around the world. Players like Llanez, Mendez, Richards, Miazga and others being successful and making it into solid first team players will have a much greater effect on American market values than Pomykal's or other American players performances on a MLS field will. That said, I am still worried that the desire to buy 22+ year old Americans is nowhere near the desire to bring over 18 year old Americans. Our league, while getting better is still viewed as not being at a very high level. We will be more successful in the transfer market by separating the perception of American players from MLS players. European clubs, especially in Germany value the hard working, willing to learn mentality, and view that as distinctly an American traits way before they view them as MLS traits.

What happens in the future with American players on the transfer market, specifically being sold, will have much more to do with the player and the players agent than it will have to do with MLS desiring to be a selling league. These players need to make in known, publicly, that they desire a move abroad at some point. They need to make it known by not signing contracts that give the clubs all the leverage in a potential transfer. I am not advocating sitting out matches and training, they do have a contract to adhere to. I do advocate them using things like release clauses and shorter terms, while still getting the wage they want.

There are many other reasons that make it difficult for MLS to snap their fingers and become a selling league. I won't go into each one individually, but things like the league keeping a percentage of fees, MLS schedule and not matching up with the transfer window around the world (especially the summer), lack of success for the USMNT, lack of pressure put on players with no pro/rel, and many others all make it more restrictive to be a "selling league."

The door will eventually be opened, but it will happen because of the success of the young Americans that are already in Europe and not because some 22 year old is playing well in MLS.

 

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