USWNT vs Germany: 2024 Olympics SF pre/pbp/post

Here is the line-up I would like to see Emma Hayes start tomorrow against Germany:


----------------------------------------Naeher--------------------------------------


Fox--------------------Girma----------------------Davidson---------------Dunn


------------------------------Horan------------------Coffey-----------------------


Rodman-------------------------------Lavelle--------------------------Swanson


--------------------------------------------Smith------------------------------------------


If everyone is healthy, here is who I’d like to see on the bench:

1. Casey Murphy
2. Emily Sonnett
3. Jenna Nighswonger
4. Casey Krueger
5. Korbin Albert
6. Jaedyn Shaw
7. Lynn Williams


1. 4-2-3-1

I’d like to see Hayes start the team in a 4-2-3-1. That seemed to be essentially the way she started the team against Germany in the US’s second game of these Olympics, a game the US won 4-1. Moreover, a 4-2-3-1 provides the team with two defensive-midfielders—rather than just one—to play the ball to when building out of the back. This often helps the team retain possession. It also often enables the team to get the ball to a place where they are able to penetrate into the final third of the field. There are two avenues to start an attack. If one avenue is closed, the team can use the other one. Against Japan, the US struggled to penetrate Japan’s final third and into their box, and Korbin Albert was often playing a bit deeper than Lindsey Horan.

If Tierna Davidson can’t start, then I would start Emily Sonnett in her place. Sonnett has good experience and was solid in the last two games.


2. Horan

Against Japan, Horan seemed to tire a bit. If that happens or she is struggling against Germany, Hayes should consider putting Albert in for Horan or putting Jaedyn Shaw in for Horan and dropping Rose Lavelle to one of the two defensive-midfielders (next to Sam Coffey). Shaw has been good for the US national team. Although she hasn’t scored for the US in the last five games in which she has played, she does have 7 goals in only 16 appearances for the US and scored 5 goals for the US under Twila Kilgore. And she is skillful and creative.

Although Lavelle is slightly built and injury-prone for a defensive-midfielder, she’s a good ball-winner. And it’s important for the US to have fresh legs against Germany and to try to win the game before going to a penalty-kick shootout. Germany’s goalkeeper is Ann-Katrin Berger. In the NWSL, she is currently tied for first in average goals against. Here:

https://fbref.com/en/comps/182/keepers/NWSL-Stats

Before playing for Gotham FC in the NWSL, she had been with Chelsea for 5 or 6 seasons. So, Hayes should be very familiar with her. Berger also just helped Germany win a penalty-kick shootout against Canada. And the Germans have been good traditionally at winning penalty-kick shootouts. So, I think the US has a better chance of beating Germany in regulation and/or overtime than in a penalty shootout. Thus, it’s important for Hayes to be mindful of putting fresh, attacking players in during regulation and overtime to try to win the game before it gets to a penalty-kick shootout. Shaw could be one of those players.


3. Croix Bethune

If Shaw is not healthy enough to play effectively and if the International Olympic Committee would allow Hayes to replace Shaw on the gameday roster, Hayes should seriously consider replacing Shaw with Croix Bethune. Bethune has been very good in the NWSL and leads the league in assists (with 9) and is tied for fifth in goals (with 5). She also looked comfortable in the US’s Olympic match against Australia. I believe she completed all but one of her passes, and she seemed clean and confident with her touch.


4. Smith at center forward

I think Hayes should start Sophia Smith at center-forward. Although Mallory Swanson was listed as starting at center-forward in some of the game reports (here is an example), Shaw started there in terms of the way the players were playing on the field. She was playing centrally, while Swanson was on the left. Moreover, the US front three has been good with the combination of Shaw in the middle, Swanson on the left and Trinity Rodman on the right. Over the course of the US’s four games in the Olympics, the US has averaged 2.5 goals per game.

In addition, one of Smith’s greatest strengths is receiving the ball with her back to goal in the middle of the field and turning and dribbling straight to goal and shooting. She really has a nose for the goal when she attacks down the middle.


5. Germany

Against the US tomorrow, Germany may well start the same line-up that they did in their first Olympic game against the US. Here is that line-up:

https://us.soccerway.com/matches/2024/07/28/world/olympics-women/united-states/germany/4331768/

The formation is a 4-4-2 with the two central midfielders playing at a comparable depth. Germany has started this same formation (4-4-2) in each of its last 8 games, including all 4 of its games in the Olympics.

Against the US, Germany’s two starting forwards could well be Lea Schuller, who plays for Bayern Munich and scored once against Australia and twice against Zambia in the Olympics, and Sjoeke Nüsken, who played last season with Chelsea and scored 8 goals for them. Emma Hayes ought to be familiar with Nüsken.

Germany’s head coach Horst Hrubesch—who has excellent coaching experience and played for West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, where they made it to the final (wow!)—has been starting Alexandra Popp as one of the two central midfielders. She is skillful, physically strong and good in the air. But she is 33 now and doesn’t have the range that she used to. She has also been known more for her heading ability than her endurance. Furthermore, the US could well have 5 midfielders versus Germany’s 4 midfielders. So, the US could outnumber Germany in midfield. This could give the US a chance to win the midfield, the way they did in their first game against Germany in these Olympics.

Germany’s outside midfielders will likely be Jule Brand and Klara Buhl. Both players are tall and good dribblers. They sometimes switch sides during a match.


6. Hayes should use her bench

The US is a deep team, and Germany is hard to beat in penalty-kick shootouts. So, Hayes should not be afraid to use her bench to try to win the game in regulation or overtime. For example, assuming Jaedyn Shaw was healthy enough to play well against Japan, I think Hayes should have put her in in the second half, taken out Horan, who was laboring, and dropped Rose Lavelle to defensive-midfielder, next to Korbin Albert. Shaw is a good attacking player, and Horan can wear down over the course of a match and tournament.

Indeed, if Hayes had felt that Shaw was not healthy enough to play against Japan, she should have had Bethune on the bench instead of Shaw and (in the second half or overtime) put Bethune in for Horan and dropped Lavelle to defensive-midfield next to Albert. As I said, we probably have a better chance of beating Germany in regulation or overtime than in a penalty-kick shootout. In addition, there is more of a random element to shootouts than there is to a regulation soccer match. In a shootout, an event is more likely to occur because of good or bad luck or something outside of the control of either team. And the US is a good enough team that I want us to try to win the game in regulation, where the game is more dependent on our agency, skill, teamwork and physical qualities.

 

I do not wish to start an argument but I saw a news report, that I cannot confirm right now, that said Fox was injured and will miss the semi. I hope that was either a mistaken news report or I misread it. I cannot even find a current injury report for the USA so i cannot verify either way.

If Fox is truly injured, which i kind of doubt, what real problems does that present for the USA in the semi.

Edit: I found an article that really does not clear things up much but it implies that she is available:
Will UNC's Emily Fox play in US women's soccer Olympics semifinal? Here's what we know
https://www.fayobserver.com/story/s...soccer-paris-olympics-semifinals/74676914007/

I guess the report I saw was just trying to get a jump on the others. I hope she is fully healthy.

 

Correction: Jaedyn Shaw scored 7 goals under Twila Kilgore.

Thanks for the comment.

If Fox is unable to start, I would start Casey Krueger in her place. Krueger is one of the best one-on-one defenders on the team. Although she is not as clean on the ball or good in the attack as Fox, she is solid in the attack. For instance, this season, she has 1 goal and 3 assists for the Washington Spirit. And she has good energy and commitment to getting forward.

Another option would be to start Jenna Nighswonger at left back and move Crystal Dunn over to right back. Dunn is right-footed and often has played well at right back for club and country. Moreover, Nighswonger has been a very good left back for the US. And Nighswonger, who (unlike Dunn) is left-footed, may be better at crossing and attacking from the left back spot than Dunn.

However, Nighswonger may not be as good a defender as Dunn. For example, in the US's Olympic match against Australia, Nighswonger was arguably partly responsible for Australia's goal. On a flighted ball into the box, she might have lost track of the player she should have been marking, and the player scored.

In addition, Dunn played well at left back against Japan. And she had a great assist in the match that helped the US avoid a penalty-kick shootout. Dunn’s pass, which was low-risk (in terms of leaving the US vulnerable defensively) and high-reward, might be the kind of creative and skillful play the US needs to score against Germany. And then, of course, Trinity Rodman received the ball and scored a world-class goal.

 

I have said before and will resay it now. Dunn "wants" to play forward but she is, in my belief, the best left back in the world by a pretty good margin. I do not remember her ever getting beat for speed or failing to correctly mark players that she had responsibility for. In the WWC in France she flat shut down, in different matches, two of the best wings in the world.

Her offensive abilities are simply "the icing on the cake" and she really has no defensive weaknesses except her height but she keeps winning, or at least breaking up, headers to whoever she needs to mark. And she does all that without fouling much at all.

The only time I have seen her have bad matches has been when she is playing an offensive position.
I have often wondered if she could, in a pinch, move centrally and play a defensive mid roll.
For me she appears to be the USA's most valuable player in that her presence frees the rest of the team to do what they do best.
We always honor goal scorers but the players in the trenches get little acclaim even though they are at least as important as the players that receive all the awards.

 

It was plainly visible-- in effect we were in a 3-5-2.

 

seemed a lot like a 3-3-4!

 

Early kick tomorrow starting at Noon Eastern my little soccer buddies so get your rest and be sure to hydrate before the Match. This afternoon, I commissioned an intense scientific study of my gut feeling and it all came back …. Rose. I believe our favorite daughter of Cincinnati is going to come up big tomorrow. And we all remember what happened the last time the USWNT played in Lyon - - -

​

Then this happened - - - -

​

 

Rep for this comment

Perhaps not the quality of Ariel Robben’s slowly, machined gunned to death, dives—but still dramatic…

lol. One of the best at it.

 

I suspect some of that is gamesmanship. I will be shocked if all three fully trained and are available tomorrow. Fox is clearly healthier than most expected but she did hyperextend her knee (it is obvious in photos and on the video in slow motion). Shaw was on the bench last game, but she never warmed up with the others, so I am not sure she is truly healthy. Davidson had to get swelling down. But do you play a center back with a knee that is dinged up (with a previous ACL on that knee)? Time will tell.

 

Now, if only we had a drone to 'verify' if those 3 players really practiced or not?







Too soon? LOL!

 

Not 'too" soon. But, maybe, "too over the top?"

I wonder what the penalty is for spying via drone on your own team?

 

Ask JackDoggy, who does it all the time.

 

You know, with an entire sub-forum devoted to the Mädels and Fräuleins here at BigSoccer, you'd think we'd have a fascinating analysis of what to look forward to in this semifinal, but the threads there are almost entirely one-man (or one-woman) rants.

Kind of like how many people must feel about the WoSo Ref threads...

 

We already got a “drone”

it’s called Foudy…

 

Oh no, don't remind me.

 

Popp ruled out for today’s game. Her replacement Anyomi, is more of an athletic winger/fwd that most likely wouldn’t start but conserve for later. This makes me think that Germany’s game plan now is to high press the defenders into making a fateful error at our crucial deep end danger zones.
And it doesn’t help that Hayes thinking of playing with a 3-back(makes it one less player for Germany to put pressure on)—

so most likely don’t have the means to battle for midfield anymore, but will have fresh legs up front to intensify what could be a very effective high press if Hayes don’t watch out

 

USA should rest their best defenders as they won't be needed against Anyomi or Freigang.

 

Morning kids.
Hope you all can watch, at least the first 20 mins, of this tremendous assessment from my favorite show about our team.
Please watch BEFORE the SemiFinal if possible.
Love to you all and bonjour mon cher ami jackdoggy en Lyon.

 

Hehe

 

Hey, I'm a fan of Freigang; she attended Penn State University.

 

If Popp is out for Germany, that's big. Popp's a great player, and yet it's possible that Popp lately has been a bit like Wambach was in the last couple years of her US career — the team was forced to play around her and it limited how they played. Forced to play without her, Germany may also find themselves free to play without her. (You could say the same about the US lately without Alex Morgan...)

I've caught a whiff of that kind of thinking in the Mädels and Fräuleins part of this Forum. At the same time, it seems like the thinking there is that Germany doesn't call up the right players who might replace Popp so it may not help them. Again, that's the impression I've gotten over the last couple years but who can say for sure what they're going on and on about over there?

It's Brand and Bühl's team now (or is it Lohmann's?!), but regardless of who the attack centers around, I have to say Germany's backline, especially in the middle, isn't very convincing. From what I've seen, their central backs, Hendrich and Hegering , will have problems with the US forwards