Getting this bad boy started. Looks like Costa Rica went after the win against Mexico and lost a couple starters due to yellow card accumulation. It total, it looks like they're done 4 starters total. I might be in the minority here, but I think we try to keep things tight in the back and open it up more in the final 30 minutes to look for the winner. I think the only way they beat us is if they press us high and we make a mistake in the back. They're going to give us the ball, so I think we try to wear them down and then find some pockets in the 2nd half.
I think on balance even this version of the USMNT is better than Costa Rica. But they still have the ageless wonder Keylor Navas who can win a game for them singlehandedly.
Costa Rica seemed to play much faster than the US or any of its opponents so far. Should be a tight game. The titanic gap in goalkeeping could easily make the difference.
The closest comp to Costa Rica are the Saudis. SA is a little lower in elo and are missing 6 players who are typically capped. So, even with the 2 missing for yellow card accumulation CR is a slightly tougher opponent than SA. I think we are favorites but it only matters if we score. We only got a .7 xg against SA and we'll face Keylor Navas who regularly saves above average. This team will have to play better and be more integrated. That's possible given it's a new group. Also, assuming we are tied after 90 we will 30 more minutes. I expect us to keep a clean sheet. That should be very doable given that they will be missing two starting forwards.
Was that mistake really worth putting Turner back in, who I easily could see doing the same thing? I dunno. We'll see what Poch thinks. He looked rusty as hell against Switzerland, granted his team did him zero favors.
I want Turner in goal. If he’s going to play in the World Cup, he needs games like this. As Herc Gomez pointed out, close to zero chance Freese starts at next World Cup. I’m torn between Ream and McKenzie. Again, I think Mark is more likely to start next summer, so I want him to get big games like this. then Adams and Tillman, and fill in the rest.
Saying a player might have made the same mistake is pretty harsh - I’ve never seen Matt make that bad a mistake? With the Cardoso giveaway and the Freese mistake, if we let in any goals like that next summer we’re toast.
This is a tough one to read. CR is missing four players and didn’t look that great at all in the group stage. Nearly lost to Curacao, had to come back from a goal deficit to beat DR, no shots on goal v Mexico. Navas is our white whale goalkeeper wise, but he was also part of CR’s mediocre performance. Conceded three goals to Curacao and one to DR. If this was the CR of 2014, we’d be toast, even at home. But they’re a long way from that Golden Generation, and have never been as effective against us in the US as they are in CR. But Navas is Navas, and we’ve not exactly been that great offensively this group stage, save for vs a very poor T&T. One factor that jumps out to me is wow is that a long layoff til the next game. I see it as June 29th, which is a full week after the final group game. Usually the GC jams all the elimination rounds into a week. But this is good for us bc we’ve had so many players sick (Jonny, Downs) or injured (Adams) so the chance to recover will be valuable. I could see this being a tentative defensive game where both teams are averse to making a mistake, maybe 1-0 on a set piece goal. We’ll need to be immaculate in defense. Big questions I have are whether Tolkin played well enough to earn one of the fullback spots, and same basic question about Quinn Sullivan. Otherwise seems like Poch has a sense of what he wants the lineup to be and isn’t going to make major changes.
Man, this has been said so many times, but this goal keeping room is dire. Pochettino probably keeps Freese for the rest of the tournament barring any horrible mistakes like yesterday.
for costa rica and any matches we may have after that, with the roster we have and tactics poch has used before (with one wrinkle pre-dating "this" team) i think our best chance going forward is this: ________freese __richards__mckenzie miles___________tolkin ___tillman___adams mcglynn___luna____ba _______agyemang which looks like this: ________freese miles_richards_mckenzie ____adams__tolkin> _< tillman ____V mcglynn___luna_____ba _______agyemang miles plays the hybrid rb/cb, so we build out of a miles/cr/mckenzie back 3... tolkin plays as a falseback, moving in with adams shading to the right with those two sitting on top of the defensive line... brendan plays as he has backing up puli, giving nominal width on the left, luna as the 10 while mcgynn sits higher... heres the big change- tillman drops to adams' right defensively (helping cover miles), while in possession he is in a free role linking the backline to the attack on the right (moving ahead of adams and tolkin, who is that link on the left). that allows us to maximize mcglynn without him being so stranded, or having to work back (which he doesnt do anyways). we can use arfsten as a platoon with tolking when we switch our shift to a cm dropping into the backline (which weve done five matches on the trot), throw a different look with actual width (to be continued). from there we could keep tillman as a more dedicated 8 (i think hes shown hes our second best defender in the middle), or we could slide him up to the 10 for luna and bring seb on in that ranging 8 role. sullivan can work as a platoon with mcglynn similar to tolkin/arfsten. i dont think quinn is completely up to this level (we will be facing), but functionality is my priority. i honestly dont see a need to look all that hard for minutes for freeman, ream, luca, etc but i like those guys a whole lot more on the bench. i hate, hate, hate the way we use so many guys in positions and roles they dont play and/or arent suited for, but the biggest disconnect for me is that everything we do is based on the defensive shape and numbers we are using so all im doing here is looking to maximize our ability rather than squeezing it into places that minimize it. does anyone really want to argue that miles/richards/mckenzie isnt a better defensive back 3 than freeman/richards/ream? or that tolkin isnt 100% better defensively than arfsten? no one is going to mistake miles for a true rb in terms of getting forward, but are any of you seeing a lot of "bombing"- much less "forward"- from freeman? thats tactics and instruction. all i am saying here is that if we are going to have that role as a de facto 3rd cb then use the best possible option for it. anyways, up until tonights match i really thought seb and adams were our 2 line going forward, but malik has shown he is just a far better defensive player than berhalter (and we already knew he was far better offensively). i dont know that seb is the clear game changer on set pieces some think he is, but thats a tradeoff/downgrade that makes sense. with tillman, luna and tolkin we arent going from 60 to a dead stop, its slowing down one outlying aspect of the game to 50, if that. the upside to that tradeoff both mitigates mcglynns limitations and it puts luna in the middle of the attack where he can be more directly dangerous, while brendan gives us everything luna does "wide". pending any cards/injuries/fitness issues i believe that is a genuinely competitive team for us here imo. those changes best utilize the players we have, and the friendlies/group stage have provided pretty decent depth. the step up in quality/lower margin for error from this point going forward isnt a small one. if we keep doing the same things i dont think we will be especially competitive. our defense dictates everything else about our overall performance, and prioritizing playing out over actually defending is the most likely thing thats going to end our run.
turner making mistakes playing the ball isnt the reason hes on the bench right now. hes never been above average there. hes on the bench because due to his lack of playing he cant reliably make routine saves. even as he (crossing all digits and hoping against hope) gets that back i think freeze has shown a clear edge in controlling his box over any vintage of turners play. the guys dont belong in the same conversation as keller vs friedel, but hahnemann vs rimando? rimando vs hartman? maybe? at the very least this run freese has gotten has given us a floor. if turner doesnt get things going and playing week in week out, if steffen isnt fit (like anybody would put money on that), if kochen or slonina dont find a first division starting gig we know freese can put in a shift at a low concacaf level. we are about the see how he fares against the top.
There’s definitely a decent chance Freese is the starter at the World Cup. Turner could crash and burn at Lyon, Steffen can’t seem to stay healthy, etc. Freese has a real shot here to put his name in consideration the rest of this tournament.
At this point the only thing I can say with confidence about the keeper situation at the WC is that we have no idea who the keeper will be at the WC. No one has grabbed the spot with certainty at this point, and if any of Turner, Freese, Slonina, Steffen etc have a stellar season for their clubs they’ll likely be it. Man it makes me pine for the days when we were so spoiled for choice at keeper that we had starting Prem goalies riding the pine.
I sure as hell hope the US learned its lesson against Panama -- if you are the better team, then it is better to close it up in the final 5 minutes of regular time when there is no time to overcome a mistake or a bad break with your superiority. You prefer extra time where you can let the odds be in your favor. Just simple game theory that I am still mad no one told Pochettino about.
I expect all of CONCACAF's greatest hits. Lots of chippy almost-yellows, a lot of sitting back and looking to counter, embellishing every touch, crowding the ref on every controversial call. All the dark arts. Will be a good test for a young group. And Poch.
Costa Rica is historically a tough game for us, even when they're far from in a golden generation. They are well-drilled, cagey, have some technical qualities, & tricks. I haven't watched them this tourney, but I figure they're going to do something like be organized at the back & set select traps for our midfield up higher. Probably let our cb's pass around the ball aimlessly & hope to hang us when it's served to our dm's. Johnny would scare me s**tless in this game. That ball over the top to the slashing runs of Pat could be vital. And if they have to shift #'s to cut that off, Quinn could be important to make runs on the wing McGlynn cannot. We had something last match to build off. There wasn't a lack of chance creation, while keeping d stability. I'm happy we get another real test, though it'd suck to only go home after 4 games, w/out even getting to the Mexicos, Canadas, or even Panamas as of late. It's a double-edged sword.
There are very few World Cup keepers who had less than 15 caps before a World Cup and ended up showing well. A few examples: -Emilano Martinez (Argentina) - had roughly 15 caps before Argentina's 2022 World Cup run. Also had at least 70 premier league starts under his belt before the World Cup. So way ahead of Matt Freese. Jo Hyeon-woo (South Korea) - had only 6 caps before 2018 World Cup. Shut out Germany, but lost to Sweden and Mexico in group stage. From South Korea's domestic league. So basically Matt Freese would have to start the rest of this Gold Cup and pretty much all of our friendlies this year and next to have enough experience to start in next summer's World Cup. That's a tall order.
Costa Rica’ stop scorer, Ugalde, will miss this match on yellows for just about the dumbest yellow you can imagine. The game is almost over, he runs past an opponent and slaps him on the back of the head while running past. Obvious to anyone. Such petulance isn’t reserved for our team I guess.