USMNT Transfer Watch - Movers and Shakers

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by Eleven Bravo, Jan 11, 2021.

  1. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    But it also shows the Premier League appearances are already more this season than all but one year since 2010/2011.

    The data from the Premier League is important, but I bet the data on appearances/minutes in all top 6 leagues is actually more than last year. Maybe even more than ever. Serie A is probably up. La Liga may be up with Johnny now adding to it. Eredevisie is probably up. LIgue 1 might be a push. Bundesliga? Probably up with Maloney's minutes now added.

    .....................I'm not going to judge our advancement as a program based on the Premier League.
    [I'm not implying that Paul is.]

    Anyway, I agree that we can't expect a Pulisic or Reyna type of breakout every year.
    Guys like Richards, McKennie, Sargent, etc. didn't break out until they were 19 or so. Moved at 18, played in the reserves for a year or so, and then broke out.
     
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  2. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I only used the EPL because it was the subject of a previous comment. I haven't got the time or patience to go through all the top leagues. :)
     
  3. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    Is that really true? First, the "unprecedented success" of the past few years has been primarily from players in their prime. Sure Pulisic and Reyna made waves at 16 but it is only recently that we have had a few players play crucial roles for top teams. (I would say that Dempsey's importance stands out but Fulham was not at the level that has been achieved recently.

    I think there could be a few other factors that lead to the impression that there has been a pause in the talent pipeline:

    When you say "top leagues", that implies....to me, better than MLS. In the past, that was true for a large number of leagues. The number of leagues that are clearly superior to MLS is shrinking. The top 5 are clearly superior. After that, there are at least a few that have teams that are clearly superior but the strength of the league itself may not be. Either way, the fact that MLS is improving may disguise the fact that more young US players are playing at a higher level than any time in the past.

    We have gotten a bit spoiled by our top players being on the roster of top teams AND playing when available. I am sure many of the older people remember when we were lucky to have a player on the books of a 2nd division team. The next level of "success" was to have a player actually playing for their team and that progressed to having a player playing in a top league etc. Now, of course, we have a few players playing important roles in big teams but none of them are 21 or 22. That takes a little more time and some of our 17-21yr old talent may make that step as they enter their prime 5-7 yrs from now.

    I also think that the foreign born and raised players skews perception a bit too. Players like Dest, Balogun, ARob etc are not at all reflective of our developmental system but their longtime presence in Europe kind of changes our perspective a bit.

    MLS has improved in actual quality and equally important, but imo just as importantly, it has improved it's reputation among European teams (almost universally is my guess). Top teams in top leagues are more inclined to sign a young player, then loan him back to his MLS team for a short period of time instead of loaning him out to a European team at or below MLS level (think Miazga and others).

    Finally, among other things, it's not like we have ever had a STEADY stream going over and if you look at the top players in the USMNT, how many NEW faces in top teams do we usually get? How many do we have now? not many, but a few. I'd say it's at least arguable that we have been on a similar path for the past few years.
     
  4. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    just mean to say look at the year that most current USMNTers broke through:

    pulisic - 2018
    mckennie - 2018
    weah - 2018/19
    dest - 2019
    reyna - 2019/20
    jedi - 2020
    adams 2018
    ream - 2015
    ldlt - 20/21
    musah - 20/21
    b aaronson - 20/21
    pepi - 21/22
    scally 20/21
    sargent 2018
    chris richards 2020
    mckenzie 20/21

    where are the 22's, the 23's and 24's??????????????????????????

    there are some guys out there....but very few breaking through as starters or significant players on significant teams


    there's been a clear drought

    2018-2021 was a gold rush

    since then its been dryyyyyyyy

    its just facts


    MLS just got BLASTED by Liga MX....and the few players from Liga MX in the USMNT have disappointed....the MLS players have disappointed


    I was hoping that the era of 2018-2021 was a sign of a new era and not just a blip


    hopefully this "downturn" is the blip

    but there's no arguing there has been a drought....its just facts
     
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  5. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    #1980 gogorath, Apr 24, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2024
    How did you define the year the player broke out?

    Pulisic - 2018? Already killed it at Dortmund and for the USMNT
    Tim Ream - 2015? Random year in a long championship run?
    Scally - 2020/21? He didn't play for Gladbach until the next season.

    So confused. You've basically scrunched a bunch of players together -- and tossed in a number of guys who developed 100% in other countries (are you really using Sergino Dest as a data point on players going to Europe?).

    Some of these players are much earlier, some are a little later in comparable; a number are still in second tier leagues.

    The expectation that we are going to have a number of 18 years always breaking out in Top 5 leagues is unrealistic.

    Paxten Aaronson has 900 minutes at Vitesse; That's more minutes than Pepi and only 300 less than Tillman. Taylor Booth had 1,500 minutes at Utrecht last year. Slonina has 2,500 minutes this year. Paredes has 1,200 minutes this year.

    We had a nice little run of Pulisic (1998), Wes (1998), Adams (1999) and Reyna (2002). And aside from Pepi, we haven't seen anyone that seems like they are quite going to reach that recently developed in the US.

    But once we start tossing in guys like de la Torre -- dude didn't break out in the Netherlands until he was 22. Reyna's not even 22 yet. I'm not sure why we expect to see a break out from a 2005 -- someone who might not even be 19 yet! and have those classes be comparable.

    In fact, if we limit ourselves to succeeding in a Big 5 league in Europe at 18 ... it's Pulisic, Wes, Richards and Reyna. Guys like Brenden and Adams were still in MLS.

    It's a small sample when that's your standard.
     
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  6. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Pulisic was a starter in the Champions League in 2016.
    Reyna was the season after you indicated.
    Adams was 2017.
    You got Jedi right.
    Is playing in SPL really a "breakthrough"?
    The rest are flaky.
     
  7. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chris Richards should be 2021 and he's having a revival in 2024
    Malik Tillman 2023
    Kevin Paredes 2024
    Diego Luna 2024 (it's coming)
    Aidan Morris? Brendan Vazquez?
    If you can have a breakout season in SPL you can have one in MLS or Liga MX.
     
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  8. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  9. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    #1: several of the players you mentioned ARE 21 and 22. (Scally, Pepi, Reyna...or did you mean "breakthrough in 20-21?) If so, see Aaronson LDLT etc.

    #2: part of my point is that foreign born players like Dest, Jedi, Musah do not reflect at all on our domestic pipeline (I will define it as a player that developed in the US...they can be a dual citizen but they have to have been developed in the US). A guy like Dest is American...no doubt about that, but his soccer skills, IQ and attitude toward the game have been influenced and developed elsewhere. We cannot take credit for their development. Period.

    #3: you said in your earlier post "top leagues". Do you consider the Austrian B1 a top league? (Brendan Aaronson during 20/21), LDLT played for Heracles...mid table Eredivisie...is that a significant team? maybe. I wouldn't consider it to be. Other than the top teams is the Eredivisie Significantly better than MLS? Belgium...significantly better?

    You can say what you want about MLS teams being beaten by Mexican teams this year but I believe it is pretty hard to argue that MLS has not improved steadily over the years and what's more, it has been giving many more minutes to young players than were given in 2019. The gap between the European leagues not in the top 5 has shrunk and as a result, it is becoming more and more difficult to argue that going early to a lower level (not top 5) league is significantly better than staying an extra year or two in MLS.
     
  10. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    1 year of breakthrough...not ge of player. theres been a drought the last 3 years or so in breakthroughs.....the players who are possibles are bench and not really doing much

    2 - doesnt matter - its a usmnt lull regardless of source of talent...and yeah there was a spike in dual nats and thats random....but a bunch of the other guys were born and rasied americans

    3 aaronson was playing in champions league in austria and did well vs bayern for example....so that counts

    league champion of austria would destroy MLS, FYI

    idk why you wanna make it about MLS....MLS is irrelevant...as we saw in the last WC ...all the MLS players suckda""....its irrelvant what level MLS is...none of the americans in MLS are going to help the USMNT in copa america or WCs...exacpt maybe with an odd exception.

    breaking through is doing it in a leageu above MLS.....

    even doing it at a club like celtic or az alkmaar is way above MLS as sands and djorjde showed us

    so again not sure what you wanna make this about MLS...its not.
     
  11. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So this season wasn't a breakthrough season for Kevin Paredes and Malik Tillman??
     
  12. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    Why do I wanna make it about MLS?

    Interesting question (sorta)
    Here is my answer:

    Your post was about a dropoff in breakthroughs at top teams. Players that breakthrough at top leagues come from lower leagues.

    My claim is that MLS is a lower league. You seem to think that something I said implies otherwise. My guess is that it seems you are considering Austrian B1 as a top league and you are counting ANY breakthrough in ANY European league as a breakthrough at a higher level.


    My WHOLE point is that MLS, as a league, has improved. Because it has improved, it has moved up in the feeder league rankings (I include Austrian B1, Eredisie, Belgium, Scotland etc in that group.) This in turn, reduces the number of players going to other feeder leagues (because no one in their right mind will go to a worse position without compensation (which could come in different forms).

    For sake of argument: lets say in 2020 MLS was ranked 15 out of 20 top FEEDER leagues for top teams in Europe. If we make further assumptions that the teams ranked 13 through 17 are not separated too much in their level (just like a league table might look). All things being equal, you would expect a player to play at the highest level they could to advance their career, so a player that could go to the 13th ranked team would never play in MLS (15th), but may be convinced by compensation (mostly money for MLS I would guess). BUT, it is important to remember that it goes the other way too. If a player can play in MLS (or even a bit higher), you wouldn't expect him to go to a lower level (17th for example) but if the compensation could convince him. In most of these cases, it's not going to be about money but it could be about other things like the chance to play in Champions league if on a top team in a lesser league, or some sort of deal that gives the player a path to more visibility and advancement (real or perceived).

    Hopefully I haven't bored you too much but here is the important part. IF MLS stays constant, then it is 100% irrelevant to your question. My point isn't that MLS is a top league or that it is better or worse than any particular league. What I am concerned with is what I consider to be a fact: MLS, as a league has improved. This reduces the chance that players will move to European teams (from MLS) that are in the feeder group of teams (because more teams will now be below MLS.

    Finally, there is one more problem with this argument. Your definition of a top team is at best, arbitrary and at worst horrible. My question to you was "do you think the Austrian B1 is a top league?". Your answer included something about the league champions of Austria being able to destroy MLS. Talk about irrelevant. The reason my question was important, is that you are putting that league in the wrong group. Austrian B1 is a feeder league. That may be my opinion, but my guess is that very few people will argue it is a top league. Is it important whether or not it is better or worse than MLS. What is important is that MLS is improving and moving up in the feeder group. The result of this is that fewer breakthroughs in YOUR group of top teams (any European league) will occur. The number of breakthroughs in top 5 leagues, or ANY better definition likely has not declined.

    One more thing:
    IF you do consider the Austrian B1 a top league, we might have to put MLS in that group, which would make this whole discussion even more ridiculous. Depending on how you rank teams and leagues, MLS can be lower or higher ranked than Austrian B1. For me, the rankings don't show MLS is better or worse than Austrian B1 (or LigaMx for that matter), but it does show that the there is not a SIGNIFICANT difference in quality.

    For those of you that are interested in what different models think of the relative strength of leagues...here are a few chosen at random.

    The Strongest Leagues in World Football | Opta Analyst (theanalyst.com)

    Football League Rankings (globalfootballrankings.com)

    World Leagues Ranking - Football Leagues Global Rating (kickalgor.com)

    Global Club Soccer Rankings | FiveThirtyEight
     
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  13. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This doesn't mean anything, it's just statistics.

    Players in the top 5 European leagues
    (EN, DE, ES, IT, FR)
    USA 24
    Mexico 6

    Players in the next 7 ranked European leagues
    (NL, BL, PT, CH, TR, RU, SCO)
    USA 20
    Mexico 4

    Players in the top 4 second divisions
    (EN, DE, ES, IT)
    USA 20
    Mex 0

    There are a myriad of reasons for this of course but I though it interesting.
     
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  14. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Worth remembering that for any comparison of leagues there are currently 29 MLS teams. There are 12 teams in the Austrian Bundesliga.

    The 29th best team in Austria is in the 3rd division, or Regionalliga. Many semi-professional clubs there.

    The 29th best team in MLS last year Toronto FC, with senior international players all over the field. Players that went to the World Cup. Lorenzo Insigne makes an annual salary of $15 million. I suspect that's more than the 29th best team in Austria's combined salary expenditure many times over.

    Toronto FC would WIPE THE FLOOR with the 29th best team in Austria.

    There are very few clubs in Austria that could even afford an average MLS-level player.
     
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  15. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Like it or not, that goes to show that the perception of a league’s quality is based on who the top teams are rather than who the bottom teams are not.
     
  16. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And that's why it's so difficult to do an objective comparison of leagues.

    Even UEFA coefficients are misleading. Scotland's ranking is dependent on the performance of two teams, Portugal three.
     
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  17. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ok well putting everything into categories isnt important to me

    if you have a team in austria playing champions league ...that matters ...more than the fact it is the austrian league

    MLS hasnt improved enough to the point that domestic players who stay in MLS can hope to do much of anything for the USMNT....so thats all that matters.

    whereas a player like aaronson doing well in champs league for redblull salzburg would have a rasonable expection of possibly helping the USMNT

    it doesnt really matter if MLS has improved or not though


    we can simply look at the top 6 or 7 or 10 leagues and include the champions league teams from smaller leagues and look at those....AND guss what...?

    theres been a dropoff in new american breakthroughs at those clubs...which is all this is about....or my intention anyway
     
  18. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So Malik Tillman's 17 Champions League appearances don't count?
     
  19. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    To some extent, I think that is true but I think there are many that can see the forest.
     
  20. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    how many MLSers would you put on the copa america roster?
     
  21. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All the best American players play in Europe, so not many.
     
  22. HScoach13

    HScoach13 Member+

    Nov 30, 2016
    Club:
    Atlanta
    The third GK and Miles will be the only MLSers on the roster.
     
  23. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    I’d put at least six so there’s ample blame to go around. Hard to pin it all on just Miles.
     
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  24. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    #1999 Mahtzo1, Apr 30, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2024

    The thing is that you keep changing your argument. First it was about top breakouts in top leagues....that implied you feel Austrian B1 is a top league. Now, perhaps after you thought about it a bit? You say it isn't only about top leagues but Champions league for virtually ANY lower league because the top teams in the lower league tend to have top players and those teams get to play against good competition for 6...or sometimes 7 games.

    You also said that you aren't interested in categories....guess what, you ARE using categories. It's just that you keep changing them. first it was top leagues and MLS as the two categories. Now it is top 6-7 leagues plus the top teams that play champions league in the lower leagues is one category and MLS is another separate category.

    I gave you a reason that I believe is at least partially true for a dropoff in breakthroughs at the top leagues. You proceeded to criticize MLS which is your right but irrelevant in the argument. You also now say that it is irrelevant whether or not MLS has improved. I agree that it is somewhat irrelevant if you are ONLY talking about breakouts in top leagues. I don't think it is irrelevant if you place some of the lower feeder leagues and teams into that top group as you have done.

    Quick question for you. Has there been a dropoff in breakthroughs at Scandanavian clubs? They have teams that compete in the Champions league too. We USED to have players that go to those leagues after or, sometimes in preference to MLS. Why do you think that is?
     
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  25. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Are people even paying attention?

    We had a starting XI at the World Cup that was only Euro-based.

    There are these talking points about MLS players on the USMNT that seem to come from 20 friggin' years ago.

    Yes, we have "B" team squads that include MLS players. Jan camp, Gold Cup. And a lot of those are the young guys we hope are on a path to Europe.

    This doesn't take a degree in Astrophysics. Many of our best USMNT based in Europe started in MLS (whether academy or first team).

    Being "anti-MLS" is the last brain cell of a US soccer fan holding on for dear life.
     
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