USL Pro?

Discussion in 'FC Tucson' started by EPJr, Aug 8, 2014.

  1. EPJr

    EPJr Member+

    Los Angeles FC
    United States
    Mar 21, 2009
    Richmond VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USL CEO hints at FC Tucson promotion, praises Arizona United, talks league expansion

    USL Chief Executive Officer Alec Papadakis met with the media at Peoria Sports Complex prior to Arizona United SC’s match with Sacramento Republic FC Saturday night and revealed his plans to meet with FC Tucson officials today to discuss a possible jump to USL PRO.

    FC Tucson, which plays in the USL PDL (fourth division), is coming off its best season in club history, reaching the West Final before being eliminated by Kitsap Pumas.

    Papadakis was optimistic about FC Tucson’s chances of moving up, noting it would be good for United and an Arizona area that “has produced so many good players.”

    “It’s a very good possibility,” Papadakis said. “That would be a very nice rivalry.”
    Papadakis said any changes would happen “in the next season or two.”

    http://www.reddit.com/tb/2cnj8r
     
  2. Owen Thornhill

    Dec 22, 2012
    Club:
    Cork City
    would need bigger crowds than their current average of 1,388 to earn enough revenue to pay pro contracts and travel expenses. Their high of 2,983 would barely afford these/still fall short. (All figures as per Kenn.com)
     
    kenntomasch repped this.
  3. davidrpaige

    davidrpaige Member

    May 17, 2008
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    An average of 1,388 for a PDL team is really good. That is better then some of the current USL Pro teams (Dayton, OC Blues, etc etc). Going up a level should, potentially, draw more people. It all hinges on FC Tucson putting money behind its marketing and selling tickets.
     
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  4. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is.

    That is true, too!

    The history of teams that have attempted a move from the amateur ranks to the pros shows that very, very few of them have been successful at drawing more ticket-buyers as pros than they did as amateurs, but, as you allude to, most of them figured that part would just take care of itself.

    The folks running FC Tucson actually understand what it takes to do this, and have grown their attendance over time to the point where they're in the conversation. If they were to attempt such a move (which I am not sure would be prudent right this minute), I think they'd have a better chance than a lot of clubs that have tried to make that move up.

    You'd be doubling your road games (and, to be fair, your revenue-generating home games) and you wouldn't be driving to most of them (except potentially a couple in Phoenix). And the cost of paying players (not just in wages, but in workers' comp and payroll taxes) and adding staff (I think many of their people do this for free) would result in a much, much larger expense side of the equation for them. I am not sure it would make sense, but I would be sure Kenney and company would be more pragmatic about it than most organizations and certainly more pragmatic about it than most fans.
     
    markmcf8 and Owen Thornhill repped this.
  5. Sporting Real

    Sporting Real Member+

    Jun 29, 2011
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Based on USL Pro adding more teams on the West Coast and in the Southwest Region, would a move like this start making more sense for Tucson? Not next year, obviously, and maybe not even 2016. This could be a market that would make sense to announce well in advance, and use that moving up as a marketing tool their last season in PDL, while knowing internally earlier then the fans would allow the team time to prepare infrastructure
     
  6. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tucson has obviously built a good thing and have improved all facets of their operation over time.

    Whether they'd want to then add a complete new layer of expense to that equation, I don't know.

    There are organizations for whom the whole "OOh, we're professional now" thing doesn't really matter. And some for whom it makes no sense, no matter if there are other teams reasonably close to them.

    IF Tucson were to consider it, they'd certainly be going about it the right way. They've started small, established themselves, had a victory getting a venue, had a competitive team, done well in the USOC and increased their fan base (and, one would presume, their revenue).

    But, look at it, seriously:

    In 2014, they took exactly five road trips.
    • Provo, Utah and Las Vegas, Nevada (two games on one trip)
    • Centennial, Colorado
    • Albuquerque, New Mexico (two games on one trip)
    • La Mirada and Fullerton, California (two games on one trip)
    • Las Vegas, Nevada (again, playoffs)
    Just as an example, their USL Pro brothers up the I-10 took 12 road trips just in the league and another in the Open Cup:
    • Richmond, Virginia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (two games on one trip)
    • Portland, Oregon (Open Cup)
    • Irvine, California
    • Sacramento, California
    • Sacramento, California (again, three weeks later)
    • Carson, California
    • Irvine, California
    • Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
    • Wilmington, North Carolina and Charleston, South Carolina (two games on one trip)
    • Carson, California
    • Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
    • Tukwilla, Washington
    • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
    Obviously the 2015 schedule isn't out (and the lineup of teams may not even be finalized, given OKC said there would be 24 teams in the league in 2015 and we're at 22 announced at the moment), but even the addition of nearby teams would make a Tucson team's road schedule look something like this:

    Twice to Phoenix, to Austin, to Colorado Springs, to Los Angeles/Orange County, to Seattle/Portland, to Tulsa/Oklahoma City, to Salt Lake, to Sacramento and at least a few of those trips outside of Phoenix they'd have to make twice to get to 14-15 road games.

    So you'd have to be prepared to take two to two-and-a half times as many road trips, taking more personnel who you're paying more money (not just in wages, but in payroll taxes and workman's comp) and not in 18-passenger vans. Given the history of teams that have moved up from the amateur ranks to the pro ranks and not seen a vast increase in attendance/revenue, it would have to give one pause. It's not a no-brainer, just because some seem to think being pro is the be-all, end all. Nor is it a deal-breaker, depending on how well you're financed. And I don't know for sure, but I don't believe there is a millionaire bankrolling this. And they're still in a market that isn't huge and doesn't have a history of pro sports teams doing well (the three years of the Padres' rent-a-franchise averaged about 3k per game) and who would be playing at a time of year when a lot of the populace either isn't in town (because they're college kids) or isn't really interested in being outside.

    What little I know about their operation tells me they're not stupid down in Tucson. If they do decide that they'll go pro in 2016 or whenever, it'll be because they've thought it out. And it's not an easy call, even with trading trips to Pittsburgh for trips to Portland.
     
    markmcf8 and Blando13 repped this.
  7. Blando13

    Blando13 Member+

    Dec 4, 2013
    Lee's Summit, MO
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree with this post ... just want to point out that you do increase the road trips ... but you'd increase the home games (and revenue that comes with that) at an equal ratio. You wouldn't necessarily need to get a big increase in attendance ... as long as it didn't fall off with the added home games. You'd have to get enough to cover the increase in player wages/front office, but I think the extra trips are somewhat covered by the extra home games.

    Not disagreeing with you, just adding ... I did read (not a no brainer or deal-breaker)! Last paragraph is spot on!
     
  8. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You'd increase the number, but not necessarily see a 1-to-1 revenue increase. I went out of my way to say that teams that had gone from amateur to professional hadn't always seen a concurrent uptick in attendance (and therefore revenue). And it's not like home games are "free" unless you own your venue, and even then there are expenses that come with opening the place up. It's not like additional home games add NO expenses.

    I do not believe the increase in player and front office wages (and payroll taxes and workers comp) would be adequately covered by increased home games. The cost of taking 20 or so people on the road and putting them up for even a couple of days (depending on where you go) can eclipse the revenue from a home game pretty easily (even getting 3k people at $12 a ticket is only $36,000, which could get eaten up pretty quickly).

    I don't believe, on balance, that it's a good deal. And history shows that it's not. We are, obviously, dealing with a fairly new environment in which lower-level soccer is enjoying unprecedented interest. But I still don't think it makes sense. I mean, if Des Moines ain't doing it, that should tell you something.
     
  9. Blando13

    Blando13 Member+

    Dec 4, 2013
    Lee's Summit, MO
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I understand that they don't add expenses ... I was saying that you're increasing the revenue stream (home games) by the same amount you're increasing your road trips. The ratio of profit from home games (includes expenses as well as profits) stays the same. If one home game revenue covers the cost of that home game AND 1 road game ... then 14 home games should cover for 14 road games for a USL Pro schedule ... much like 10 home PDL games cover for 10 PDL road games. The simple additional of road games is accounted for. The quality of travel (planes vs bus travel) may not be covered, but the addition of road games isn't the factor IMO. I agree that the Front office/player wage increase isn't covered.

    Sorry, I agree with you, silly arguement really. Completely agree that it doesn't make sense ... unless the added interest in soccer/lower division even in this country brings in new local partners that can help cover the cost and add marketing. The costs are getting lower (regional travel) and interest is gaining. If you can get this to be a part of a bigger money making effort (like an academy) then it could work in smaller markets, if not, PDL/NPSL is still a vital part of the pyramid.
     
  10. nousernogood

    nousernogood New Member

    Nov 22, 2014
    Club:
    FC Tucson
    When FC Tucson started the owners stated in the newspaper that they wanted to turn FC Tucson into a MLS team one day...
    That is probably wishful thinking in this city...
    FC Tucson also runs the pre season Desert Diamond Cup so I don’t know if that flows into their general revenue...
    The other question about going USL Pro is if you align with a MLS team does the MLS team then pay for those players??
    You would have to think FC Tucson would have be able to align with one since they run the MLS Preseason...
     
  11. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Although it's true that Dayton and OC averaged fewer fans, those two teams are subsidized by their affiliated youth clubs; the whole purpose of the USL Pro teams was to serve as a promotional tool for the youth clubs rather than to make money on their own operations.
     
  12. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think (I'm pretty certain) that Kenn is right about the expenses part. Not only would an FC Tucson team need to travel farther, they'd probably take more staff. It's way more expensive to fly than take a bus. Plus you'd probably have more hotel expenses, and as Kenn pointed out, some of their front office staff are probably volunteers now, and you'd need to have professionals getting paid in those spots.

    The step up to ULSPro might help the club get more sponsors, or get existing sponsors to pony up more money. If they could sell more in stadium advertising, or sell it at a higher cost, that could increase revenue.

    FC Tucson does the Desert Diamond Cup, and I think they do get some revenue from that. If the SJ Earthquakes attend the cup again this off-season, then I think it very likely that the Quakes would become FC Tucson's MLS affiliate. The Quakes say that they really like the FC Tucson organization. Also, the Quakes were very slow to partner up with Sacramento, I think because they wanted to partner with Tucson instead. Oh, and the Quakes will have a PDL partner for '15. Those guys say they want to do a ULSPro side, but I think that's pie in the sky.

    There have been rumors on the Quakes forum that FC Tucson would make the move the USLPro in '15. But if that were true, wouldn't we have seen some action before now? Probably just someone hallucinating.

    The MLS clubs do pay for the four players they loan to the USLPro teams. So any partner for FC Tucson would do that, but it would work better for FC Tucson (or any other USLPro side) if the MLS team were to loan a coach to them and eat some of their expenses. (Which I can imagine being a lot less expensive for the MLS club than operating their own USLPro club. So loan four or five players - who then don't count against the MLS roster - and a coach to keep an eye on their guys and help their development. Eat some of the USL teams' expenses to guarantee playing time for the loaned players. I could see that sort of scheme working, but I don't know if any clubs are doing that.)
     
  13. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ( a ) Pretty late now (but still not unprecedented)
    ( b ) Would unbalance the league at 25 teams. That's not a dealbreaker either, I just like symmetry.
     
  14. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    @kenntomasch, this is wild speculation and rumor. It's also old. I think it was last off season or the off season before that we heard this. So just a rumor.

    But, if FC Tucson were to step up to USLPro, I think that a solid MLS partner could only be a help.

    On the downside, the Quakes tend to do things on the cheap, and late. So it could be that they wait for their PDL affiliate to step up to USLPro . . . in five or ten years.
     
  15. msilverstein47

    msilverstein47 Member+

    Jan 11, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  16. markmcf8

    markmcf8 Member+

    Oct 18, 1999
    Vancouver, WA, USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ha, ha, ha!!

    I got one!! (Out of thousands no doubt.) Good on FC Tucson!

    Of course, the Quakes now have their own affiliate in Reno, so no relationship with Tucson. However, FC Tucson are owned by Phoenix. It will be interesting to see how a D II team runs a D III team.

    I thought Tucson would be in the same division as Phoenix, but apparently not. So I wasn't really right about this. Oh well.

    Go FC Tucson!!
     
  17. msilverstein47

    msilverstein47 Member+

    Jan 11, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    have to give some major props to you buddy...a very long-time coming tho!!!
     

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