Post-match: USA v Bolivia -June 23, 2024 - Copa America

You mean Pepe, the guy who played [checks notes] ~1900 minutes/65% of the league total for Porto, and ALL of the UCL minutes for Porto and all of the Cup minutes for Porto vs Tim Ream, the backup for Fulham?

1. Thanks for agreeing with me.
2. Whatever a manager's talent pool is/is not, its still incumbent upon him to maximize it, wouldn't you agree?

 

Do you read what others are replying to?

Here, I was replying to this:

If you've got a problem with that statement, take it up with THAT poster. Cool?

 

All other things equal, yes for sure win the group. Always a nice achievement and good for morale.

In this case though I'd much prefer the team to position themselves to max out their performance in the quarterfinals, assuming without presuming we beat Panama. And in light of seeing both teams in the recent pair of friendlies plus knowing how they've been doing in other recent games, I don't think there's a lot of daylight between them.

In terms of travel, that is sometimes a thing but for whatever reason, not here: We'll play Urugay in KC and the quarters will put us either in Vegas or Phoenix.

All that having been said, it would be a nice thing to beat Uruguay and/or top the group. But I'd sacrifice that for setting the team up for success in the knockouts.

 

Is your argument that Pepe, who is older and also played more minutes, needs less rest than Ream?

At some point you need to figure out what your point is LOL if it’s just that you hate Berhalter, just write THAT. Hell, make it a macro to save time, “I hate Berhalter.” See?

 

Ah, the perils of the ignore list.

Still seems kind of weird but a lot less weird.

 

Agree we'll have to wait and see the intent/execution vs better comp as the tournament continues.

I'm merely making the point I can't in recent memory remember Balo/Pepi getting that many touches in and around the 18. And in the buildup.

 

I swear, you read these threads sometimes and you'd think we lose these games.

Totally dominated that game from start to finish.
An in-form, and half decent performance, from a #9 and we win that game 5-0.

Berhalter has rotated the #9 spot for 6 years looking for an answer. We haven't found it yet.

 

It means that Pepe, even at 41 years old, is further away from being cooked than Ream is, based on how many minutes the former played, compared to the latter.

That Ream rides pine for a lesser team than Porto, suggests that his workload needs to be managed moreso than that of Pepe's.

In turn, since Bolivia probably wouldn't trouble an MLS side [well, apart from Chicago and DC], means that there was scant reasoning to keep Ream in a game that was over at half.

 

Bolivia wasn't this bad a year ago. They beat the Saudis in Jeddah, pushed the Uzbeks to the limit to lose only 1-0. They had also destroyed Trinidad 5-0.

Several of their players retired: Danny Bejarano, Marcelo Martins, Diego Bejarano, Juan Arce, Ramallo, Marcelo Moreno, etc.

I find it hard to blame Egg for not keeping up to date with an obscure team like Bolivia in the last 8 months. But it should have been a chance to try a prospective CB pair. That's all I'm saying.

 

I went ahead and built a quick one.

I used the relevant, though admittedly very small, dataset of the 24 group stage matches from the Copa America Centenario.

Using the Elo ratings going into those matches and the outcomes, i built a Poisson distribution for goals scored.

For last night's game

Elo USA = 1790+100 for the Home Field= 1890
Elo BOL = 1592

E(Goals): USA=2.33, BOL=0.56

I ran 100,000 simulations based on the Poisson distribution:

Most Likley Scores:
USA 2-0 = 15% (what do you know )
USA 1-0 = 13%
USA 3-0 = 12%
USA 2-1 = 9%
Draw 1-1 = 7%
USA 4-0 = 7%
USA 3-1 = 6%
Draw 0-0 = 5%
USA 4-1 = 4%
USA 5-0 = 3%
BOL 1-0 = 3%
Draw 2-2 = 2%
USA 5-1 = 2%
BOL 1-2 = 2%
USA 3-2 = 2%
USA 6-0 = 1%
USA 4-2 = 1%
BOL 2-0 = 1%
USA 6-1 = 1%
Other Scores = 4%

Likelihood of a 3+ goal USA Victory = 31%
Likelihood of a 4+ goal USA Victory = 15%
Likelihood of a 5+ goal USA Victory = 6%

 

I'm concerned about Ream's age/pace looking towards the WC.

Then I consider Richards' completely lack of composure on the ball and that it would be even worse without Ream's presence/influence.

People have mentioned McKennie's YC but it was a result of a horrendous ball by Richards that put Wes in that position and gets punished by a better side.

It's that type of decision making by a Richards that scares more than Ream's age.

 

It that doesn’t make any sense either, since “being cooked” is by definition relative to the competition. Ream needing to rest is a separate issue from whether or not he’s good enough to start in the Prem. I mean, he just last night outplayed a Prem defender, so what in the everlovin’ heck are you thinking or saying?

You know what, that’s it, you’re obviously trolling for some reason enjoy the rest of your day please rate us on Yelp

 

Do clarify.

Pepe is now a better player than Tim Ream, who is also very close to being cooked. Thus, Ream needs less time, not more.

At the same time, Tim Ream is now an important component to this manager's team. Squandering a finite resource [i.e. the number of minutes a nearly-cooked Tim Ream can play] on a match that was done and dusted, at home vs a team that was not going to trouble the US, was stupid.

 

They absolutely had a better World Cup than us -- no doubt.

At the same time, I don't know that it moved them forward much. The Spain game was closer, and they largely played Croatia straight up, but Germany bombarded them, and both Spain and Germany had finishing/striker issues this tourney. (And they lost to an otherwise awful Costa Rica!).

How repeatable was that run? On one hand, as a fan, I'm sure it was a blast. And yes, the wins are there.

It's not a shock to me that they came home from beating Spain and Germany and then had a crappy Asian Cup where they beat Indonesia, Vietnam and Bahrain but lost to Iraq and Iran. Yes, Asia's better than CONCACAF, but that record isn't. That's like us going to the Gold Cup with an A team, finishing second in our group and losing before the semis.

It's like us -- that win against Spain in the Confed Cup is totally real but also upsets contingent on scoring 2 goals on 2 SOG aren't super repeatable and anytime you play that defensively it's tough to see how that translates to longer term improvement.

That doesn't mean we need to be naive, but I also don't want to just be defending only and basically hoping for an upset based on elite goalkeeping and lucky counters. At some point, you actually have to get better.

 

It is amazing the lack of reading comprehension on this board. Yes I did say that was a possibility and I stand by that statement but it was one of two possibilities and it was only possible if we did not score early. As it was we did score early so, if you want to insult me, you should do it on the basis of what actually happened rather that taking the statement as my only guess as to what could happen.

It is simply stupid to break out one part of a guess without including the whole thing. I guess I should follow Mark Twain's advice and stop responding to people like you/

 

OK, you can have a cookie, too:

It means that Pepe, even at 41 years old, is further away from being cooked than Ream is, based on how many minutes the former played, compared to the latter.

That Ream rides pine for a lesser team than Porto, suggests that his workload needs to be managed moreso than that of Pepe's.

In turn, since Bolivia probably wouldn't trouble an MLS side [well, apart from Chicago and DC], means that there was scant reasoning to keep Ream in a game that was over at half.

Feel free to keep up, as we've already seen that you've had a hard time reading.

 

LOL you think a player’s career is like that Justin Timberlake movie about buying and selling time.

 

Who is the CB pair people wanted to experiment with?

Who is more composed on the ball than Ream?

 

I know people here will hate me for this but Miles Robinson - Aaron Long. I'd be working with them to be our backup CB pair. Long has improved. People will hate that they're MLSers but last time when we needed an emergency 3rd CB, Walker Zimmerman did well.

As for our main CB pair, beats me. McKenzie looks below average in Belgium, CCV has shown very little with the NT, Richards has a long way to go to look like a starter lock, Ream is in decline, Brooks has been a liability with the NT more often than not, and beyond that we're looking at Nathaniel Brown level players --that is far below MLS quality.

So I'd go with a MLS CB pair w/international experience as backup with possibility of becoming the main pair, because it's not unlikely none of our CBs in Europe improves enough.