Post-match: USA v Belgium knockout game

The loss was entirely related to mentality and approach and execution.

Anyone literally watching the game the first two minutes knew that we were in severe danger of losing the game, something that wasn't remotely true in our matches with Paraguay (who beat Germany, and Turkey, two knockout sides at Euro '24 who were very good in WQQ)), or Turkey, or Bosnia. The game basically looked like the first 90 seconds against Australia, but unlike Australia, the jitters, poor touches, and misfired passes continued apace. It was patently obvious that for whatever reason, the USMNT players weren't ready for the moment, something Poch focused on over anything else in his first post match comments, it was obvious.

People can argue that Belgium is just miles better, but it's bull----. Belgium 2014-2018 were miles better (Euro '20 if not for Covid too, probably), where was this Belgium against Spain, against Egypt, against Iran, for 95% of regulation against Senegal, when the coach appeared to be writing his resignation lol, in the closing minutes of the match? We only saw this side twice all World Cup, against us, and against New Zealand, otherwise they didn't even play like a top 30 side. Are they suddenly ---- because of those performances, great because of this performance or something in between?

I do tend to buy the idea that if the Balo card never happens, as it shouldn't have, or if FIFA hadn't reversed the decision, we have a totally different game, because Belgium roles in with the same mentality they had had all tournament which was largely ---.

This was a game about mental make up on that day, about mental preparedness, vibes and confidence, and Belgium felt great injustice, for no justifiable reason whatsoever, the US players appeared to feel embarrassed, and running on gas takes wholly empty of confidence, good vibes, and hungry hearts. The sides basically played exactly like what can happen, when a pitcher doesn't have his control and command, and another side that's Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan's love child, and the results were preordained the second they rolled out there.

People keep wanting to argue that Belgium has infinitely better players which they don't, and we know that didn't mean anything against Senegal until Senegal thought they had the game in the bag, and it didn't matter against freaking Iran, or Egypt either, and the reality is, as others have said, both sides are reasonably close in talent, I think Belgium has a higher floor in terms of their worst players on the field, and they had the most talented players overall on the field other than probably McKennie (who had his worst USMNT game in two years), Pulisic (who had his worst USMNT game probably ever), and Balo (whose valuation is likely to skyrocket as apparently even PSG is looking at them after he nearly knocked them out of the CL this past February......

The difference in this game was Belgium was up for it, and ready to go, hungry to put us to the sword out of a sense of injustice, and the USMNT never got off the bus until the second half, and then that effort was rolling until Freese and Ream handed any chance of winning the game to Belgium, and they happily took it.

That's the story. Spinning it on anything else is just stupid and wrong. Neither of our sides are like Argentina, or France, or Spain, or even England, where, regardless of mentality, the talent will see us through, and when the chips are down, they'll grind out the necessary results late on, the results against Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Spain and in this match this WC all illustrate how neither of our teams are capable of performing when we aren't mentally up for it. As a result, neither of us left any imprint of any sort on this WC other than Belgium humiliating the US, period, in our most watched game ever, mostly due to mental make up and mentality issues, far, far, far more than talent disparities, and it shouldn't be a surprise, the US were not up for it throughout WCQ for '22 consistently (1 horrible game all 5 qualifying windows), the US only had one complete first half/second half performance at WC '22, we choked repeatedly in NL in the '24 cycle, and at Copa America '24 in crunch time, and at NL '25. This was very much of a piece w/that mental folding in WCQ, at WC '22 in those 2nd halves and against the Dutch, in the way we crumbled after the Panama Red Card, and in the win or go home match with Uruguay, and against Jamaica in NL (and T&T), and against Panama again 9 months later at NL again. This is who the key pieces, the core of this USMNT are: Mentally weak, and incapable of consistently strong mental fortitude in the clutch. They simply do not have it, across the board, which is why guys like Cavan, maybe Tillman, and Balo, are so damn key going forward, because we know by now McKennie, and Pulisic, and Dest and friends won't do it, and won't have it, period, because they've shown us this for this entire decade. They can be up for a game here and there, sometimes two in a month, but put them out there enough, and especially if you raise the pressure enough, and they will fold, they just don't have it, period, they are the anti-Messi's, the anti-Maradona's, the anti-peel's, the anti-German's of 1950-2014 etc.

Some athletes are just like this: they are basically the Alex Rodriguez's of USMNT soccer, instead of the Derek Jeter's.

 

Is this the hockey guy? If so, that would explain it.

 

Yes, the claim has been made. Sometimes it's an incredibly naive claim, sometimes it's short hand for a much more interesting discussion.

That's irrelevant here. Coming on here and claiming we'd be better if "we" didn't think this as if there's actually a collective we or that those are in charge of evaluating soccer talent or setting up structures or whatever in this country is not only just stupidly stereotypical, but it continues to perpetuate pointless and lame discussion.

Want to have interesting discussion? There's plenty on here. You just don't have to assume everyone else is a moron and you have all the answers. Want to go "HUR DUR AMERICANS STOOPID"? Go somewhere else.

 

Agree. Before the game, my friends and I commented that we needed to come out strong and make it through the first fifteen minutes. And then the game started and everyone said the same thing: we're not going to make it through the first 15 minutes.

I do think Belgium has some real edges on us: for some reason, when evaluating teams, everyone forgets keeper. And Courtois is the best in the world, or damn close, and Matt Freese is Matt Freese.

Both otherwise, they aren't miles ahead. We might not be favorites, but we absolutely are within range of it not being hopeless. It should have been a very good game. And it was not.

Is it harder to beat a technically gifted Belgium with a good counterpress and our aggressive offense than a Bosnia? Of course. Is it impossible or some idiotic tactical decision? No. Was being offensively aggressive our downfall? Not even close.

We got beat. They came out intense and confident. We came out nervy. They kept their poise when they made mistakes, we did not. The goal right after scoring should give everyone a sign: that's a textbook case of a team unable to keep mental discipline. That's a let down for any team.

It's disappointing but not unexpected with this team. We should not EXPECT it to get better, but that doesn't mean it won't.

 

Against Spain, Belgium took 30% possession, set a lower block, didn't use 38 y/o MLS defenders, didn't try to play sweeper keeper, and didn't send too many attackers forward. They gave themselves a chance. I wish we had done likewise.

 

Spain outshot Belgium 18-5, and had a 5-2 advantage in SOGs. I felt Spain dominated. USA game would also have ended 2-1, without the late gaffes.

 

So what?

 

Thank you for answering your own question.

 

They lost. I don't think they had a particularly good chance.

We had our chance against Belgium. We just made mistakes they didn't. Until their keeper spilled one.

 

You’re right, I admitted I got a waffle in Belgium one time because my flight was $400 less than if I went to Paris. You guys have a great footballing future ahead of you, who could possibly disagree.

You’ve always been excellent, never underachieved, even with the world class players. You have great team chemistry when one of you isn’t sleeping with the other’s girl.

 

Don't think so. He seems to be an EPL/UCL writer.

 

The other obvious rebuttal is that the US is 5x as large as France, a fairly large European country. It's not the pool size, it's the cultivation.

I once saw a quote on these boards that I cling to: "I don't buy the better athlete theory. I buy the better coach theory."

 

The best athletes argument isn’t just about physical attributes, but mental drive, cultural pressure/spotlight, generational interest, financial opportunity, etc. it’s not just saying we need taller and faster guys.

 

IMHO it starts with kids who eat, sleep, and drink soccer. When I lived in Germany as a child, I was always in a "sandlot" game with varying numbers of German kids. It depended on who did their homework and could get outside the fastest.

 

What I have found from international analysts is that most believed that the US were the favorites. After the game most thought that the repudiation of the overturned red card caused the group to mentally underperform.

 

I have mostly seen this or the paper tiger narrative where we looked good against the lesser competition but wilted when we took on a stronger opponent.

 

Well, Spain's second goal was one that never would have happened if Coutrois was still in the match, that gives them at least a decent chance, especially when extra time and PKs were looming. I'd have actually given Belgium the edge in PKs.

 

Against Courtois?

Spain was overwhelmingly the aggressor and had like 50 minute more of play to score.

 

Damn, they were harsh on Ream

 

So the US for a long time used to get/steal results in that manner… but with minor poking at the ego bunker and counter to win became a dirty word in US futbol spaces… winning matters but also how we win/compete…. would we have been better off starting the first 15 minutes in a bunker counter mode and grow into the game? would our bunker counter be more effective in implementation with our more “talented, better trained “ players? The US beat 3 teams going toe to toe.. was it a problem of humility where we didnt shift tactics appropriately for a match between a perennial top 16 team vs a top 8 team?

the whole thing about best athletes still goes on.. as if theres a clear physical equation to success.. isnt that the best part of futbol? where fleas like Messi, Xavi and Iniesta succeed against top genetic specimens like C Ronaldo and other monsters built like Haaland? that the midget Argentinians climbed the alps and completed headers vs the Swiss..
We need high IQ and skilled players, I dont care what the Create a player makes them look like

 

what is factually true is the following:

1. the US has a large number of youth playing the world's game (soccer/aka football).
2. the US has a number of extremely lucrative professional leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football) competing for the best athletes (domestically and globally (Wenbayama, Jokic etc.)) for each of the sports ...
3. Just like non US basketball players come to college here to help get a path to play pro basketball here - the US youth soccer player has the same challenge in reverse - and as we all know - it is just not easy.
4. other countries simply don't have these pro leagues in Europe at the similar size and scale as the EPL, LaLiga, Ligue 1, BL, Serie A etc. ... so many of their youth focus domestically on a single sports path once they decide they love the sport .... ergo the best players find good paths to improve.

yes statistically we SHOULD have one of the best teams on the planet - but we have a ways to go .. and it would help for our political leaders to not get involved - because their impact is opposite to the desired goal. It is not about superior or inferior prowess or abilities - it is about numbers, training, coaching, culture and money. We should be doing better ... USA rugby should be the best in the world - but alas college and pro football drain the sport of all that talent in the US ... just the way it is - the top five sports teams (market capitalization) world wide are NFL teams. We have an embarrassment of riches and unfortunately it is very slowly being showered on the US youth soccer player. In time it will - but not yet.

 

I mean, not really.

The correlation between population and football success is not that strong. The R-squared sits between .05 and .10, meaning that population explains 5-10% of a nation's football success. That's not nothing, but it ain't much.

GDP (which would be GDP per capita * population) has an r-squared between .07 and .20, depending on the model and study.

So, yeah, we're talking Population * Economic Development accounting for, at most, 20% of a country's football success.

Which means 80% is something else.

 

So that's not political in nature?

 

Not sure if you noticed, but Courtois and KDB are now old. That story happened when they were very young, I think around 19-20. They have since played like six tournaments together, with little issue. They share the cost in a private jet and their wives get along very well.



That's a story that was last relevant like fourteen years ago.

As for how good we will be going forward, who knows. Will be fun to find out I suppose.

 

Yep, agreed. I'm sad for Freese, he joins Wondolowski, after a lifetime of playing the sport, his most famous moment will be his worst, and that's not fair, but that's sports. Sometimes you live long enough for it to be forgotten or just get lucky, Buckner lived long enough for the Red Sox fans that made the rest of his life a living hell, to finally win a World Series and let go of that ground ball that bad hopped him (watch his mid and the ball's path and it starts to make sense), or poor Steve Bartman who as luck turned out, only had to hide in a nuclear shelter for a year before Red Sox fans stopped seriously considering carrying out bounties on his head. Eventually people let go of Wondo for the most part, maybe they will quickly with Freese, but for those poor guys, it will probably occupy them, and what's particularly cruel about it is they won't ever have the chance to perform their way out of it. Freese will be Robert Green, period, and nothing will wipe that away. Not fair, but such is sports. It's kind of wild that we spent years talking about not using Steffen, and Horvath, and then Turner because of the howlers Steffen and Horvath habitually made, and Turner started making in '23 and '24, and so we put in Freese, and then Freese made an error that will go down as the worst error in the history of American goal keeping at any level. Seems like it was preordained. Some Ancient Greek version of Fate dragging us down to hell, no matter which Keeper we put in net.

As for Belgium and the game. Agreed, my wife was convinced we had no chance, mostly because she's only vaguely attentive and interested in US soccer, mostly because she lived in Groningen for two years in the late nineties....I told her this was basically a push in terms of talent, and we were in much better form, and then lol, 90 seconds into the game I turned to her, and she nodded and I said, "We've got no chance." or something of that order. You could literally feel it in the first minutes. For whatever reason they were pissing their pants instead of rushing out like Vince Lombardi and Herb Brooks had written and performed the pre-match speech. You could literally feel it in the living room, 15 feet from th tv, the panic, the fear, the discomfort......it reminded me of how it felt to step into the batters box as a teen and face a pitcher who you just knew had your #....

That's what happened. I can own when I know the coach destroyed us with his game plan, that was certainly LVG in 2022, and it definitely seems like the Belgian coach had a better game plan than any the previous four coaches we faced, and I know when we are facing a team that is just simply our superior, period, and there's nothing we can do to help it: that was Brazil in 1994, that was the Czechs in 2006, that was Belgium in 2014.....this game as you said, and I said earlier was a game where Adams, McKennie, Pulisic, Ream, and Freese and Dest simply weren't mentally up for it whatsoever....it wasn't the first, and it won't be the last, but it was the definitive moment for their careers in their prime. They won't get another chance until performance depends more on their hearts and heads, than anything else because their bodies will be beyond ideal condition as they were in this one. It's why I'm ready for Cavan, some of the other kids coming up like Gozo, why I was so incensed Luna wasn't there (who would have been beyond up for it), and I'm ready to give far more energy to guys like Balo and Tillman going forward. A team centered around Adams, McKennie and Pulisic as its core clearly will never play consistently effective soccer, even when the performance isn't entirely there, they will always come up short in terms of performance and in terms of efficacy on the field, in windows, after 7 or 8 years of this, there's no question that we need to turn in another direction as we build towards '30, they'll be involved, no question, but we can't center them anymore, we need to build a unit that plays as a whole and depends far less on their game to game confidence, mentality and vibes.