Pre-match: USA v Australia Game 2 6/19 3 pm ET

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by OWN(yewu)ED, Jun 12, 2026.

  1. mace

    mace Member+

    Indy 11
    United States
    Jun 5, 2004
    USA
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You better believe it. The stadium was made for field noise and Seattle is a huge soccer market. Somehow my kid landed some tickets for the AUS game and I still can't believe I'll be there. He said it the tix are several b-day and x-mas presents in one. LOL

    The pessimist in me keeps hoping we haven't peaked too soon.... This AUS game will be a huge test if we are a one hit wonder or not.
     
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  2. Demo250

    Demo250 Member

    Mar 26, 2025
    Really hope worst case that it’s a draw.
     
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  3. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Beating two solid counterattacking teams on the spin would represent a new level for the US.
     
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  4. whitecloud

    whitecloud Member+

    Jan 25, 2009
    Gulf Shores, AL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think we can overstate just how bad Turkey's attacking strategy was against Australia. The U.S. just cycles the ball around in the final third so much more rapidly than anything Turkey were doing. Turkey just becomes entirely static close to goal. If Yildaz and Guler don't create something brilliant nobody else will put themselves into a dangerous position to score. The U.S. attack was constantly moving and shifting players against Paraguay. That's going to be much harder for Australia to defend against.
     
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  5. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not getting ahead of ourselves but if we beat Australia by two goals I think we can basically wholesale the roster with reserves
     
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  6. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    that would be risky if Turkiye beats Paraguay (which still seems likely)

    remember that the primary tiebreaker is H2H, not GD
     
  7. Yowza

    Yowza Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Oct 23, 2019
    Arlington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Anyone else think Australia tries to surprise the US with full field press before settling into a deep block after about ten minutes (or a goal is scored)?
     
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  8. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #208 OWN(yewu)ED, Jun 14, 2026
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2026
    that game could go either way, but people are instantly forgetting Paraguay is a good team. They could just as easily remind Turkey. Its just a question of who is more deflated, and who still has vinegar in their balls. Im............honestly not sure that is Turkey. A tie suits us just fine too in that game assuming a US W occurs.

    I would highly.........highly discourage Australia looking past Paraguay. Not wise. Just because we put them to the sword, everyone else just thinks theyre gonna be a cakewalk now. I still think you guys come along for the ride and advance with us
     
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  9. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    , Nah, not their coach's MO. Theyll have a plan, theyll execute. Not sure they have much elasticity, but .Theyre good at what they do.
     
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  10. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    #210 Caesar, Jun 14, 2026
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2026
    of course anything is possible, but Turkiye is the favourite in that game (as is the US vs Australia)

    If both games go as expected, the winner of USA-TUR will top the group - not the sort of game I'd like to field a bunch of second stringers in
     
  11. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure, on paper, but I also feel like you guys and Paraguay are similar in a way. If Turkey had a hard time breaking you down, they will have a hard time breaking Paraguay down too. I know recent result be damned they are a decently organized defensive side. Slow possession, which Turkey is, is not going to be successful in breaking down Paraguay's defense. Watching Turkey move the ball yesterday was like watching turtles bang. it was awkwardly slow.
     
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  12. BCFy

    BCFy Member

    Sounders FC
    United States
    Sep 20, 2021
    Seattle, WA
    Turkey wasn’t horrible and it wasn’t like Australia completely shut them down, but yes Turkey looked like a team that had to qualify the hard way in Europe. Lacking a real spark and definitely not the Turkey of 2002-2008. Australia countered nicely and mostly defended well. Dangerous game, but one the US certainly should be favored in.
     
  13. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    running circles around each other, I dont think anyone is disrespecting anyone. I dont think anyone's coach's will allow that. Exceeeepppt.......welllllll........... Turkey....... Their fanbase had in their mind they were going to win the group. They could finish 4th.
     
  14. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Member+

    Club: Inter Miami
    Feb 11, 2002
    Jupiter, Fl.
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, it hasn't happened since 1966, so Arena has just reached the Grumpy Old Man stage of his career…

    Not that he always hasn't been an asshole., but he's our asshole.
     
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  15. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    maybe, maybe not

    The TUR-PAR game has very different context to the opening round, PAR now needs a win so they do not have the luxury of parking the bus against Turkiye the way Australia did. Turkiye will presumably have their chances.

    Anyway my point was not really that Turkiye will beat Paraguay, simply that the result matters to the US lineup decision, and it is far from assured
     
  16. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    okay, thats perfectly fair. Yeah. Will have to see how it all plays out. I know we will both have our eyes on that other match too, and I think we will both be rooting for Paraguay
     
  17. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  18. TheHoustonHoyaFan

    Oct 14, 2011
    Houston
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #218 TheHoustonHoyaFan, Jun 14, 2026
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2026
    Lets not get carried away. When Gio Got the ball the closest 'defender" to him was a US player sitting in the box who just got out the way. The match was over, everyone was waiting for the clock to run out, especially the Paraguay players.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jLDglo8Fsr0

    The Aussie match will not be like that; They are big, strong, very fit, and will run all day!
     
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  19. The Clientele

    The Clientele Member+

    Portland Timbers
    Jun 25, 2005
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think you could be absolutely right. I wouldn’t be surprised if their strategy will be to press us early with the intent of scoring an early goal. They might be feeling especially confident after the last game…
     
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  20. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    #220 Caesar, Jun 15, 2026
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2026
    Australia will be cheering for a TUR-PAR draw, as that means Australia can lose to the US and still only need a draw against Paraguay to go through.

    But even ruling out the draw, whether a TUR or PAR win is better for Australia is a bit contextual. Assuming they lose to the US, the options are:
    1. Paraguay wins but cannot overturn Australia's GS/GD advantage. Australia still only needs a draw.
    2. Turkiye wins, then loses or draws with the USA. Australia still only needs a draw.
    3. Paraguay wins and flips the GS/GD. Australia now needs a win.
    4. Turkiye wins, then beats the USA. Australia is out.
    So the best result is a draw, but a Paraguayan win that flips the tiebreak criteria (not that hard, Australia is only +1 right now) is not necessarily better than a win for Turkiye. It means you need P(USA draw/win TUR) < P(AUS win PAR) in a pair of matches where all four sides are very motivated.

    Most Australians would still prefer the PAR scenario as they would back their team for the win (nobody likes to have their progression depending on another team's results) but personally I think the probabilities point in the opposite direction.

    Of course if Australia gets a result against the US it all becomes academic.
     
  21. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Have you forgotten about the 3rd-place path?
     
  22. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    nah just ignoring it because nobody is playing for third

    if we land in third my expectation is that we are out, lucky loser is a bonus
     
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  23. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All else being equal, advancing in 3rd is twice as likely as going out in 3rd. If you get to 4 points, your chances are very high.

    I guess you deleted your #5 scenario, which seemed to count Australia "out" in a 6/6/6/0 3-way tie situation. The third team would come down to GD/GS scenarios, could be anybody, but clearly all three would advance.
     
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  24. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    #224 Caesar, Jun 15, 2026
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2026
    Not deleted, just not considered. Your bottom line is fair (i.e. if Australia gets another point they have a very good chance of going through regardless of how the group ends up, and if they get 3 they are virtually certain to)

    That actually slightly strengthens my actual point. i.e. Paraguay beating Turkiye is not an absolute good for Australia, since Australia currently sits better against Turkiye than Paraguay in any hypothetical tiebreak scenario

    But yeah, my mental model is based around securing second and that ignores some nuance
     
  25. MarioKempes

    MarioKempes Member+

    Club Med
    Aug 3, 2000
    Proxima Centauri
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nothing will surprise the US team nor the coach, and the US should dictate the play and not react to what Australia does.
     
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