USA goalkeeper discussion thread - Episode IV: No Hope

Population wise, Luxembourg is several times larger than both Iceland and Curacao and slightly larger than Cape Verde.

 

I actually think that this generation of keepers is just fine.
In line with the level we've had over the years below Howard, Keller, Friedel.

These guys are fine. I think that since we don't have a Howard in this generation, we're actually undervaluing what a Turner, Freese, Celentano, Schulte, Steffen, Brady, etc. can do. We have guys hopefully entering that group like Collodi and Schwake.

Do we have a keeper in this pool who can keep us in games that we don't deserve to be in? No. That we don't have.

Solid, but not spectacular. And, by the way, we have an increasingly large pool of solid.

We don't actually give ourselves credit for that. Work is being done. You look at some of the 2nd and 3rd keepers picked for events after the end of the Howard/Guzan era, and its really head-scratching. We picked Tyler Miller for the 2019 Gold Cup. People act like it was a horrible decision for Berhalter to move to Steffen. As if there was anybody else until Turner emerged.

We've built up the keeper pool quite a bit over the past two cycles. And you know? Over the last two cycles, I have only very rarely walked away after being eliminated from an event and thought...........................the goalkeeper was the reason we were eliminated. We weren't eliminated from World Cup 2022 because of Matt Turner's play. Not at all. In fact, he played just fine. We weren't eliminated from 2024 Copa America because of our goalkeepers.

 

It's math and persistent math at that. If you compare Turner with his competition in MLS, Turner's the better keeper, mathmatically and by a pretty strong margin.

Otoh, I was carrying a pitchfork 2023-2025 myself because in the shirt he went from adequate to suck, and with his clubs, '22-'24 he did the same.

But now, w/all these guys in MLS, Turner is easily producing the best #'s since he came back and getting the minutes as a starter to be fresh.

What are you supposed to do with that information? Ban him because the math only applies to MLS, or use him because objectively in the same league, Turner is the better keeper? Is this a goalie PTSD thing? I have it, watching him flub reasonably easy saves, and feature in when playing it out the back goes wrong multiple times as well, but, at least since he got back to MLS last year, he's been better than Freese, better than Schulte, better than Brady, better than Celentano. It is worth noting that the Steffen faithful that popped up last spring after Steffen put together his first quality month of goalkeeping as a starter in six years are quite quiet, as he makes the "gaffe of the week," segment seemingly on a bi-weekly basis...So at least we can be pleased with him playing his way out of contention and not doing the same in the shirt.

Anyway, I get the concern about Turner, he has not been good in the shirt since '22 and early '23, but what are we supposed to base their eval on? A handful of matches Freese played against mostly trash the summer of '25, a handful of games he played this fall? Seems like small sample size trap. We have a lot of data in MLS suggesting he's an average to above average goalie for the league, and that in the shirt, he's basically average, while Turner was good in the shirt, but hasn't been for years, but has been pretty easily better than Freese against the same competition in a like for like competition of MLS goalkeeping stats.

It's not a fandom thing, whatever Turner-stans existed 2019-2022 have long since lowered their banners based on the '23-'25 returns from that investment of their time and fandom. There's no desire for our keeper to suck and cost us a game, that's it. We don't have any options we can trust like we did '90-'14, we just don't , for now, it's either go with the floor that is Freese, or bet on the trend lines of Turner, neither option is great. I am not sure if Poch will open the competition or not.

 

I'm not sure about that, I think Freese won the job with his summer performance, and then ranged from below average to average in the fall friendlies, nothing great, nothing objectively horrible. Turner has layed down a marker in the same league, I think Freese goes into the May Camp as the starter, and Turner will have the opportunity to metaphorically grab the belt from him or at least grab a start in the group stage by how they look in comparison in May/June. I can't tell if the Turner start was exclusively about locking in his backup, or wanting another look after Freese was meh in the fall, I tend towards the latter. Freese has done nothing to warrant his name being in ink, in pencil, I can buy that, but not in ink.

 

I think Meola was pretty darn good, better than anything we've had since Howard retired. He ended up being harmed by the lack of an MLS in my view in his early prime, most of his 20's were spent with no league, I think he had Euro interest, just checked and yeah, he moved to England when he was 19 or 20 and I think honestly the USMNT and Bora Ball (having the players at home) basically derailed his club career, by the time we had an MLS he was already 27, and had lost the reps probably needed to develop into a truly elite mega keeper, but the sense I get from the USMNT teammates circa 1990-1995 is that he was right there with Keller and Friedel but ended up coming back home to help the cause like a lot of other guys that now seem like ingrates w/their complaining, but actually did legitimately sacrifice club careers and earning for the USMNT and establishing MLS.

 

I just think that if you are Poch and Turner has never had a good game for you, then MLS stats dont mean a lot to you. Especially if yputhink that you can get it done in the first 2 games with Freese.

 

Freese has started 14 of the last 16 games.

Freese hasn't done anything to lose the role in his opportunities.

Turner didn't do anything in the last window to have demanded a change.

its 6 of one; half dozen of the other. Therefore tie goes to the incumbent.

.....................and no, I don't there's much of a gap between those two and Schulte, Celentano, Brady, etc. either.

But Poch had to make a choice, and he did. He's been working almost exclusively with Freese as his #1 since the Gold Cup.

 

To me it's just a glaring error that we don't have any of our top 5 options abroad; heck even Klinsmann was only starting in Serie B. For sure MLS has improved and wages have surged but if a Freese or Brady or even Turner were starting in Belgium or France or Championship, there'd be some more confidence in them I imagine.

 

Actually, at our current level goalkeepers develop better in MLS than in most other leagues. It has to do with both poorer defenses in MLS and the obvious lack of playing time 'keepers from the USA get in other leagues.
By having relatively poorer defenses, producing more shots and putting a greater burden on the 'keepers to keep defenses organized it means that the 'keepers either get better or fail. Since Friedel, Keller and Howard we have not had a single GK with enough quality to break into and hold a position in any of the world's major leagues and being in one of the lower leagues is no better than playing in MLS.

As opposed to field players I have a great deal of confidence in 'keepers playing regularly in MLS and a LOT more that those sitting on the bench elsewhere.

While a GK error might cost us a match in the WC we are MUCH more likely to lose because of field errors and that is as it has been since and before the Friedel, Keller and Howard era we have not had any 'keeper able to keep us in matches we should lose and, unless we get two or three able to get regular playing time overseas the best hope for 'keeper development is MLS.

Goalkeeping is not a position to be concerned about. However the defensive positions are areas of concern as our mids and forwards are simply not good enough to simply out score opponents.

 

I don't think our centerbacks are thinking "I'd have more confidence if this guy in goal behind me played for Zulte Waregem."

How many really good starting jobs are there in Europe? By that I mean, clearly better than MLS.

120?

We've had young keepers move to Europe. Kochen, Slonina, Beavers, Eyestone, etc.
That path hasn't been more productive in recent years than maintaining momentum domestically.

Julian Eyestone turned down a HG contract offer from FC Dallas, and chose to sign in Europe. Great. But its Michael Collodi that's on our radar. Why? Because he's playing. Julian Eyestone might be collecting a nicer paycheck, but he ain't playing. Not for Brentford. Not for Brentford B. It's so easy to be "Slonina'd." Like Alex Borto of Fulham, that I mentioned above. People had probably forgotten he'd existed after he was on our 2023 U20 team. He's been at Fulham now for 6 years!

Gabriel Slonina's accountant might be better off right now than Chris Brady's. But Chris Brady is playing games and might just go to the World Cup. Who is developing? Who is actually playing games?

Marcus Hahnemann played in MLS before he moved to Europe. Tim Howard played in MLS before he moved to Europe. Brad Friedel came back to MLS after struggling to gain a footing in Europe, played great for Columbus, and got to move back. Tony Meola tried to give Europe a go (Brighton), but ended up playing his career in MLS.

People know that Marcus Hahnemann moved to Europe when he was ~28. Right?

Chris Brady is.........................22 years old.

We have to continue letting this new band of keepers develop and work their way up.

What were Brad Friedel and Kasey Keller doing when they were 22? Google is our friend.

 

I wouldn't take him over the field, but if I had to predict our starter in 2030 right now gun to head I'm going Brady

 

That is a very hard prediction and the field is wide open.

 

Totally agree. I'm just saying that if you're forcing me to pick 1 guy right now, it's Brady. I think he probably won't be the starter, but he has a better chance IMO than any other single individual.

 

Yeah that's why he now seems, if I were the coach anyway, an easy choice for 3rd GK for this tourney. You don't really have to choose between a guy who can play for you now (his league stats are a little better than Freese's) and one for the future.

 

Speaking of league stats, @gogorath did the honors last time, many weeks ago early in the MLS season, but how are our GKs doing now, with 11/12 matches under their belts?

How are their teams doing, relative to expectations?

What do the individual GK stats tell us? Do all of those stats align, or is it a mixed picture?

Thanks!

 

Impossible to predict the keeper for 2030. It could be a guy currently in the NCAAs or MLSNP for all we know.....................

I'm sure if we go back four years and see who folks predicted to start at WC26, it would probably be Slonina.

Matt Freese was playing MLSNP games in 2022 for Philadelphia Union II.

 

Guess we may not be having a keeper capable of starting for 2/3 straight World Cups ala Tim Howard.

 

Maybe.

For all we know the new USMNT coach will stick with Freese.

But we don't have a Courtois or Donnarumma stud right now that's an obvious pick for the next decade.

Italy had Buffon to Donnarumma, which will probably be like 40 years of mostly two keepers........................

I watched some Italian media roundtable prior to the last WCQing window, and they laughed when talking about the backup keepers. I had never even heard of them. It didn't matter. The three backup keepers for their last camp (against Bosnia) had three combined caps. Elia Caprile of Cagliari??

Matt Turner has the same goals against average for the USMNT as Donnarumma has for Italy. (0.94). Not the most meaningful stat on Earth, but true nonetheless. Matt Turner averaged less than one goal conceded per game for the USMNT. At WC22 he averaged one goal conceded per game at the tournament.

 

FotMob's "Goals Prevented" stat, at least definitionally, is the same as the advanced shot-stopping stat FBRef used to have before Opta ended their agreement. (I don't know if the raw data is actually the same or even similar.)

Goals prevented - MLS 2026 stats

It has Stuver, Turner, and Thomas as the top 3 (5.4-5.7 goals prevented so far), with some distance between them and everyone else.

It then has Schwake, Callender, Ferree, and Brady as the next 4 Americans (2-2.6 goals prevented so far).

Johnson, Schulte, Freese, Collodi, and Celentano are next, each slight net positives for their team (0.1 to 1.2 goals prevented). Marcinkowski by contrast is a slight net negative (-0.7).

Steffen and Horvath are the bottom two American goalkeepers on the list (giving up 3.1-3.2 more goals than expected so far).

That said, all of the last 4 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year winners (Blake, Burki, Kahlina, and St. Clair) are solidly net negatives right now, even though they've all finished top 3 at some point this cycle. Kahlina, who FotMob had as 1st and 2nd the past two years, is now 26th. Blake who was 4th last year and 3rd a couple years prior is now 29th out of 30. So these things can swing pretty wildly from one season to the next. Or at least to the first 11-12 games of the next season.

 

Turner is way ahead of everyone and, and NE is overachieving based on that.

 

Blake's numbers isn't a fluke. He doesn't look anything like he used to. And Philly is way down partially because they don't have their savior anymore.

 

Stuver is someone who should have gotten at least a January camp opportunity at some point. Was already in his 30s when he became a starter I believe but has been consistently very good.