USA goalkeeper discussion thread - Episode IV: A New Hope

It factors in screens in that it takes a picture at the time the shot is taken of every player between the ball and the goal. So if there is a trend of player between the GK and the ball increasing the chances of ballgoin then that will boost the shot quality (both pre and post shot). Rebounds I’m not sure of, that’s in xG (which considers the sequence leading up to the shot), not sure about Opta’s post shot xG. Should be noted that last I checked Statsbomb used shot velocity but Opta did not.

 

We all look at stats our own way. I measure my posts by the chuckles (mostly groans, I'm sure) they elicit.

I will accept that Steffen is weak on many GK metrics - some of which still must be explained to me - but no one has satisfactorily explained why Colorado has done so (relatively) well this season, not just in the Messi Cup* (Colorado finished 3rd, Steffen with some standout performances, obviously a fluke) but over a (virtually) complete season in MLS (once as high as 3rd in the West, currently 6th, having tailed off in recent weeks).

Would Colorado really be undefeated league leaders if they had the best MLS GK, or even just an average GK, someone who doesn't leak goals? If Steffen is so terrible, why did Colorado improve so much season-over-season, from dead last (by a mile, only Toronto was worse overall of 29 teams) last season? Chris Armas? Sam Vines, who I like? Another player or two?

I’m not sure there isn’t an adequate explanation, but I haven’t seen it.

As the focus has shifted to LA's Lloris, who's obviously over-the-hill, his team is in 2nd Place in the West, so imo he must be doing something right. Results matter.

I can't imagine any team in any league thriving with that league's very-worst GK.

*

 

Well, there are things like directing the defense that are important and I'm not sure how much that shows in the stats. Things like controlling the area enough that teams don't test some guys as much as others, confidence in handling that can make players think twice about shooting/crossing. There are a lot of things that can escape those stats. Again, I'm not saying they are completely meaningless, but there is a bigger picture than just shot stopping, and that's without getting into distribution, which has a lot of aspects that are less than clear statistically. I'll admit that at least partially I'm just old and don't care so much about these new fangled numbers to define everything, but I still think there are some valid reasons they should not be held out as the last word in evaluating performances. I think there is at least some level of wanting to find a number you can just calculate and not have to think too deeply and you get the "prove" your point, but if it was that easy, we'd see a lot more uniformity in player evaluations than we do. If it was as easy as just total up the numbers, everyone would do it and come to the same conclusions. But instead we get a variety of opinions on many players even when you ask top coaches around the world.

 

The FBRef numbers put Steffen at -9 goals. Colorado is at +2 GD (and +6 xGD). Adding 9 goals into that would move them up a spot or two in the West. So it's simultaneously a big number ... and not so big numbers. They would not be the best team in the West, much less MLS.

That said, the team is substantially different than last year. They added Djordje, who has 21 G+A, a striker in Navarro with 14 goals, and Cole Bassett took a massive step forward as an offensive 8 with 16 g+a.

This is a team that scored 26 goals last year. 26! Basset led the team with 6 goals! They've scored 59 goals this year with the defense being close to the same!

Now, maybe Steffen's distribution plays a role here that isn't measured in this stat and probably isn't well measured elsewhere. Maybe his organization allows the offense to get forward more.

But I'd chalk it more up to the offensive personnel improvements.

 

Steffen doesn't have to literally be the league's worst keeper to not warrant call-ups to the US nat'l team. He needs to be not one of the better to best. And there's a pretty large gap he has to make up for that to be reality.

If that were true, psxg+/- would practically be a useless stat. Good thing for it we saw many of the gaffes to show he hasn't been a positive overall, at minimum. He was a standout in the few weeks of Leagues Cup. Nobody disputes that. It's still a small fraction of the picture. I'd weight this yr's Leagues Cup below MLS play proportionally to boot.

He got called up by a guy with limited knowledge of the pool, especially on the domestic front, by his admission. That will expand over time from watching games, for club & country (Jan. camp). Then we'll see more accurate evaluations based on relative performance as opposed to being aware of a guy from Man City, the BL, Championship, & USMNT.

 

I think calling in Steffen to this camp is not an irrational absurdity. There's method to Poch's madness, even if you assume (as I do) that Steffen will not be 'the man' come 2026.

I also think this is a propitious moment for Steffen - he’s playing, while Turner never plays and Horvath has stopped playing.

Schulte is the one perfectly positioned, ahead of the (younger) crowd. Let’s see if he can seize the moment.

 

Yeah, I’m looking at this window like a sort of elimination round. Call in the likely suspects, see who isn’t a fit and move forward without those individuals. Just a guess as to what the staff is thinking.

 

I don't get the wisdom of calling in a keeper who's performed poorly at 2nd rate league clubs for years vs. ones who've performed well or decently like Freese.

Even if Steffen has a good practice, it'd be speculative to then burn any of our finite amount of live games on him. Then he plays well for a couple games, that could be fool's gold like Leagues' Cup. Then he goes back to struggling in league then in turn the national team over a larger sample. You just wasted a lot of our remaining games we could have used for a better shot at a viable option.

Why couldn't he just wait until there's more evidence he's a potentially useful keeper for us, thru being an MLS standout thru the playoffs & part of next yr, before giving him more opportunities?

It's not irrational this way, just wrong. The logical explanation is what we figured - he has superficial knowledge of the pool. So having played in big comps & clubs (technically) carries more weight. I don't know he's aware who Matt Freese is. If he is, he may have caught his 1 bad game recently.

 

Fbref has Steffen atop MLS in terms of defensive actions outside the box. In a high-pressing system, the sweeper-keeper actions could be useful to a team

I looked, but couldn't find, the pass completion % for MLS GK, and/or pass completion % whilst under pressure. You know, the things that Turner can't do, and can't improve upon while watching other players play with his club.

 

I mean there is more to goalkeeping than just shot stopping. But it’s the most fundamental skill for any goalie and the other stuff doesn’t really matter if you’re bad at it. And Steffen always has been.

In terms of Lloris my vague recollection is when he was at his peak his shot stopping numbers in the EPL were pretty good. And Allison is pretty consistently the best in the league and I think most would consider him one of the best (if not the very best) in the world.

And I think when people are evaluating goalies generally the shot stopping numbers are the first thing one looks at. As far as advanced stats in soccer go it’s one of the best ones.

 

Freese definitely had the bad luck of having a poor game in the window between Pochettino being hired and the roster getting picked. If the staff was watching that game it was poor timing for him. My expectation is he’ll get a look in January.

 

Gruckles? Groankles? I measure your posts by this as well. And I've got to say: you've done a great job over all these many years.

 

On Steffen apparently if you look at both American Soccer Analysis (which goes back to 2013) or the Opta model (which goes back to 2018), the current season from Steffen is the worst shot season in MLS history (in terms of seasons for which the data exists).

 

Is this really worth this much angst?

Yes, we all understand. Steffen was called in because Poch is familiar with him; not because his play for Colorado has earned it.

Let Pochettino and his staff evaluate him with fresh eyes.

And then we have to give Poch, the new goalkeeping coach Toni Jimenez, and the new USSF goalkeeping coordinator Jack Robinson, time to evaluate the pool before expecting them to call in Freese, Celentano, Brady, and those guys.

Toni Jimenez is a former Spain international. Played in la Liga for a long time for clubs like Espanyol and Athletico Madrid. I'm sure he gets it. He'll be able to see with his own eyes what Steffen's game is like.

 

Is it worth that much angst to call up statistically the worst keeper in your domestic league when you have 15 Americans rated above him & you want good players for the nat'l team?

It kind of speaks for itself. Maybe Pochettino's fresh eyes will make the data mean the exact opposite of what it says.

 

No. Its not worth the angst

We have to expect that Pochettino is going to "explore the landscape" with some of his callups. Particularly before he actually knows the pool.

People are talking about data here that I doubt was ever considered for these callups.
I highly doubt that Pochettino and Jimenez were hunched over tables of data from MLS in order to determine who to call in as the 4th goalkeeper. "Oh, it says here that Zack Steffen has a post-shot expected goals of 57 and somebody named Matt Freese is at 48. Let's call up Matt Freese!!!!!!!!!"

All that stuff had literally nothing to do with it.
Frankly, had nothing to do with it for any position on the field.

 

The Steffen call up is not a big deal.

Shot stopping data is also an important stat that lots of coaches/scouts look at and use it help inform their decision making. It is also of course not the only factor or consideration.

 

Sure. OK. I'll put it this way. I highly doubt that Pochettino and Jimenez were pouring over shot stoppoing (or any data) to determine which keepers to call up for this camp. For this camp. Just for this camp. And frankly, I suspect that the keepers selected for the Nations League camp in November will come from this group.

They called up the guy they knew from their time in England. That's it. That's the reason. They called up the guy that literally won a Premier League medal. Literally. He played in enough games as the starter for Man City in 2021 (when Ederson was out injured) to have a Premier League winner's medal. The only American ever to do so.

 

Adam Delplace, born in 2006, is a promising young goalkeeper currently making strides in the youth ranks of Ligue 1's RC Lens.

The French-American goalkeeper has recently marked a significant milestone by making his first appearance on the bench for RC Lens' first team this… pic.twitter.com/K9LbYfeQUT

— USMNT Report 🇺🇸🇹🇷 (@USMNTReport) September 5, 2024

 

This camp aside where they clearly haven’t scouted the pool a ton, I’m sure they are going to look at shot stopping data in thinking through which MLS goalies they want to take a closer look at.

The same way EPL teams looked at shot stopping data in identifying Turner and Petrovic as players they wanted to buy.

And Steffen played one EPL game each in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Not enough to earn a medal on its own as you need five games. But each team gets extra medals they can award as they see fit. Being the backup for Man City isn’t really an argument for anything. They bought him based off potential he never realized.

 

The bad news about goalkeeping situation is that we are currently in a positional nightmare situation. If the World Cup was tomorrow, there isn’t really anyone we could count on. Maybe Schulte is ready. Maybe he isn’t. Turner’s career is in free fall. Horvath is even worse. Steffen is an empty shell. There aren’t any star dual nationals to try and poach. Don’t let anyone convince you otherwise… it’s bad. Really bad.

The good news is that we have the most amount of promising talent that I believe we have ever had at the position. Slonina, Brady, Kochen, Ferree, Beaudry, Beavers, Rick, Eyestone, and dual nationals Di Marzi and Delplace. Heck, all 10 of these keepers are very promising prospects. Maybe none of them emerge. But hopefully we can get at least one of them to take that next leap forward in the next 2 years. But they’re all so raw….. it’s a big ask for them to break out in that time frame.

 

I like to read Barnsley fans bulletin board and they have a pretty level headed take on Slonina. They see the talent, but can also see he lacks experience, ie: he’s all over the place.
In essence, they recognize he’s a 20 year old learning on the job, they just kinda wish it was happening somewhere else.
My takeaway is it’s a long season and he can have a major impact in that league, it just might take until after Christmas, if it happens at all. Good news is they seem all in on him, the team that is, so I don’t worry about a benching.

 

If the World Cup is tomorrow it’d be Turner but Schulte might be able to take the job between now and next summer (or someone else).

 

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Turner isn’t even on the World Cup roster. Of course, stranger things have happened, and he may turn his career around, or the worst thing can happen, no one else steps up…. But as it stands, if Turner is one of our top 3 goalkeepers it’s because we are extremely desperate.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if he isn't at least brought as the #3. Not sure what Poch will do of course but I doubt he wants to go into the WC with 3 GKs who have never been to one, and Turner seems like the kind of guy who would be able to accept that role and still remain a leader in the locker room.

There's also more than 18 months to go, Turner could well be playing regularly again (even if in MLS) by then.