USA goalkeeper discussion thread - Episode IV: A New Hope

2 errors leading to goals already, ******** me m8te.

The most important stat, conveniently not included in that tweet, is Expected Goals on Target minus Goals Allowed (sometimes called Goals Precented. Also some argue it should be looked at on a per shot basis). On that front Slonina is at 11.53 - 13 = -1.47. That puts him 16th in League One.

 

So on Horvath my understanding is his parents quit their jobs and worked essentially as janitors in Norway so he could go there before 18 and get his career in Europe started early.

I think I could see him not wanting to give up on Europe given how much his parents sacrificed for him to get a foothold there. And when he talks about it’s something that clearly means alot to him.

 

I could see him sticking in Europe as long as possible. Maybe even long enough he’d have to come home to USL and not MLS if he wants to end his career with a taste of domestic ball.

 

Def makes sense why he may have enjoyed cashing those checks in the Championship rather than having possibly having interest in leagues like Bundesliga or Eredivisie.

 

Forgot about that story. I just found it odd to argue that he's quitting on his dream. He's been there 11 years, he made it as a professional, played for one of the biggest clubs in Belgium, played in the EPL even if he didn't stick there, played in Norway, played in the Championship, logged starts for the USMNT and helped them win the first Nations League title, was a part of a World Cup team in 2022.

Like, he already made it. It's like saying an NFL WR halfway into his second contract at age 29 or whatever shouldn't quit just because he's struggling to start on the regular for the Ravens this year or whatever. If you've been in Europe a decade, you made it. You can do what you wish, stick around Europe, go to MLS, whatever. But you clearly made it. His valuation seemed to peak at around 2 million, which would give him what, 200K for a transfer moves? I don't know his wages etc, but I imagine he put away a decent amount of money the past decade. Not star money, but certainly a mill or two at least.

 

I mean looking at it from my perspective I agree and he can go to MLS and make good money there. But I can see from his perspective why he’d feel hesitant on moving on from Europe given everything that was sacrificed for him to get there.

 

Also, as we've noted...........................he does make more money in the Championship than every USMNT-eligible keeper in MLS. I'm sure MLS has made overtures, but the offers may not have been appealing as those he's gotten in Europe.

This is a player who was starting in the Champions League only a few years ago. He was keeping clean sheets against Athletico Madrid, Monaco, and Dortmund five years ago.

In his mind he probably believes he's still THAT GUY and just needs to get back on track. Just needs that opportunity. Ever since Brugge signed Mignolet ahead of the 19/20 season, his career has been herky-jerky.

It should be noted that Ethan has never had any connection to MLS. As far as I know anyway. He's a little different than most of our US-born players on the national team, most of whom have some association with MLS. Even spending just a little time in an MLS academy like Steffen. Even Pulisic was a guest player for Philadelphia in youth tournaments. Horvath has no emotional connection to MLS. This grind that he's in.............has been his life since he moved to Molde in 2013.

You don't find many players in the pool anymore who played high school soccer. Legitimate high school soccer. Horvath is one. His father was a high school all American and had a long and distinguished career as a high school coach. Was in fact, coach at Columbine at the time of the horrible shooting.
Columbine staff reflect on Horvath family's journey to World Cup | FOX31 Denver (kdvr.com)

 

But anyway, goalkeepers called up in this October window. Slonina does seem to be the one that's been consistently not used. Not used by the U23s at the Olympics and still only one senior USMNT cap. That one cap was a January camp games. Still only provisionally cap-tied I believe. I don't have any issue with Poch calling up Steffen as I know he's going to re-evaluate our pool. I would like to see Slonina more involved as we move forward. He could be the future. Could be. Just could be. He could fade from the limelight too. We don't have a crystal ball. The consensus of the board is that Steffen likely isn't.

USMNT
Matt Turner; Crystal Palace
Ethan Horvath; Cardiff City
Zack Steffen; Colorado Rapids
Patrick Schulte; Columbus Crew

U20s
Gavin Beavers; Real Salt Lake
Julian Eyestone; Brentford

U19s
Andrew Rick; Philadelphia Union
Duran Ferree; Nordsjælland on loan from San Diego.

 

I'm afraid Steffen's time has past and arguably Horvath too. Turner needs PT but I'd say it speaks volumes who's chosen to start vs Mexico.

 

Slonina conceded a really soft second to Huddersfield Town yesterday. Well struck shot from distance but he should have done better as the shot's placement was quite central (8:50 mark in attached video). By all accounts he'd been sold before that point, though.

 

Some great goalkeeping on display in Forest vs. Chelsea. Reminder that it’s a bummer Turner couldn’t make it work there and we’re missing out by not having our NT pool keepers playing in games like this anymore.

 

True. Also his wife is from Norway so they may prefer to stay closer to her home.

 

This gives me a good opportunity to bring up a fun stat! Out of the 29 GKs who have played the most in MLS this season (1 per team), Zack Steffen is DEAD LAST in goals prevented. 16 of the GKs ahead of him are American, 5 of them younger than him. Make of that what you will. https://t.co/ak5SFageTd pic.twitter.com/ceniROO9ZW

— American Ultras Talk (@ameriultrastalk) October 7, 2024

 

Damn, that's crushing.

 

Steffen and Horvath ... I do not know why they were even called up. Where are Roman Celentano, Brad Stuver, and Steve Clark?

 

Stuver has been good for a number of years. He’s 33 now but argument to be made he should have gotten some camps and third keeper looks last cycle.

 

Is he a good vibes guy?

 

The new USMNT staff wouldn't know Brad Stuver from Adam.
Nor would the new USSF global goalkeeping coach Jack Robinson, who has only been with the program since September.

So, obviously, they picked the status quo and guys they knew for this camp.
Then scouting and player recruitment will begin for subsequent camps.

Frankly, if they were going to pick somebody else for the camp it would probably have been Slonina. Not the MLS guys. [Which 99% of us would have been happy with.]

 

At this early stage I wouldn't expect them to. But I hope they get to a point where they can cast a wider net, and not just rely on old faces.

 

Gotta say any statistic that rates Hugo Loris as the 20th best goalie in MLS may not be definitive.

 

It's not as gospel as some act like w/out any context & it 1:1 tells who the better keeper is, even when the difference in the stat are only marginal. It's more a general gauge.

BUT, Lloris is almost 38. It's not like there hasn't been slippage. Let's not treat him as if he's the prime version. In the EPL, that same stat shows the decline. Last year there he was at -.17 (down from +.52 a few seasons earlier), & this yr it's -.01. That reasonably tracks.

There should not theoretically be much difference league to league cuz it's evaluating the quality of shot you save or don't. The discrepancy can lie more in the mental pressure of the experience. I don't think that's a factor for Lloris either way.

 

I mean he is 37 years old and past his prime. Is it surprising he may not be as good as he used to be?

 

I don't place zero value in stats, but at the same time I think we just have to be careful about thinking they tell the whole story. Loris is not peak Loris for sure, he's also not one of the worst starting goalkeepers in MLS.

 

-.01 means you're basically neutral as a shot-stopper. Then there are other areas like fielding your position & distribution you need to factor in where he may score well, meaning he's still above average.

That's where I think the psxg+/- is gospel crowd gets carried away. It's that, & the reality not all situations are created equal, plus there are flaws like not factoring in screens or rebounds. Though it smooths out to a good degree over time.

Still, there's no functional difference between a lot of -.04's & +.04's, even though some act like there is. It's more reliable at extremes. Steffen would be at a negative extreme. Selecting him is indefensible.

Unfortunately we don't have any real positive extremes like Turner was. Freese is the closest that's young enough. Schulte's been solid, possibly would be higher if not for coasting at times in the middle of the MLS regular season, & not succumbed to big moments. Plus is arguably our best option in distribution. So he's the experimental option ATM.

 

For a fundamentally derived stat, it's probably one of the better ones. That said, the issue with these kind of stats is always when something looks off, is it because there's some missing in the derivation or is it simply performance variation in a small sample?

It's entirely possible the PSxG model is missing enough variables to be fair to Lloris here. I don't know exactly what they are incorporating, but I'd bet something things are missing or just too much of an approximation.

But I also think that we tend to believe the performances here are a lot more consistent than they are. Obviously Lloris has a better pedigree, but Daniel went from one of the best keepers to to not so good in MLS in back to back seasons ... and it was 100% right. He made a lot of great saves in that great year, and he's not been good this year.

Lloris is basically right on expected for the season on FBRef -- the gap to Stuver is basically one goal every five matches. That's a lot ... but also not. A few great plays by Stuver, a few goals that Lloris usually gets to but misses ...

And of course, Lloris is older. It's worth noting the other big name, Roman Burki, has been at or near the top both years he's been in the league.

Lastly, Lloris is like the 14th best starting keeper in MLS by that metric per minute -- there's not actually a lot of keepers in the positives. So middle of the road.