USA goalkeeper discussion thread - Episode IV: A New Hope

To that, I say that Barça have been more than comfortable promoting plenty of players from Barça Atleti. Even as Atleti were in Spain's 3rd Division.

Yamal, Cubarsi, Fermin Lopez and others last season. This season, Bernal, Casado, Torre, and more this season.

To put it bluntly, it simply does not matter to Barça, nor to their top prospects whether they play in La Tercera or La Segunda.

And again, if Kochen is good, it does not matter to them. It did not matter for Yamal, Cubarsi, Casado, Bernal, Torre, Victor, and others. Plenty of their prospects play in La Tercera, come into their 1st team, and do just fine.

This season, other GK may well get cup appearances ahead of Kochen, and it really won't matter for him. That Pena or others play in a Cup game is also about finding THAT player the right assignment as well.

Spain isn't like other countries, in the way their B teams play with and against grown men. I suspect that is one reason why Spain tend to churn out good players at a younger age than other countries.

 

Celentano, as a rookie, turned his team & their awful defense's fortunes around. Was marginally positive in the metrics until the last game when he allowed a couple that didn't matter. Then killed it in the playoffs. But ironically that's not included in his stats for people from the outside to look at.

Next year his team cruised to the best record in the league. Then he killed it in the playoffs, again. Saved 80% of shots (prior season it was 85). Context matters. Now he has better regular season #'s to show it this year.

Celentano has been a good MLS keeper, Gaga was mediocre, then he regressed. Kochen has done nothing. Brady & Beavers have a better case as high upside youth. If Kochen wants to be in the senior picture, tell him to transfer to La Liga 2 & actually be decent like these other guys.

 

I think if Slonina wasn't released to the Olympic team........................Brady would have been next man up. And there was that chance. Pulskamp went as the alternate, presumably because SKC didn't need him.

I'm not some big Brady defender. He's only 20, though. Still developing. He'll either get better or he won't.

I think Brady is an example of guy we see all the time so we've picked his game apart. We never see Kochen, so Kochen must have a higher ceiling. But that's totally based on hearsay.

 

(Matt Turner) - sufficient incumbent on the backburner, de facto #1
1. Schulte
2. Freese
3. Celentano
4. Callender

 

Don't agree on Kochen or your rankings but I respect nearly all of the arguments (I don't think we can see what Kochen is doing, but what Barcelona is doing with him suggests a lot).

 

In 22 Celentano was way better than Slonina. Not even close.

 

If he keeps on progressing in 2 years he will be loaned to La Liga 2.

 

Freese did not have a great game last night versus the Union, but on the other side Andrew Rick had a very good game.

18 year old GK Andrew Rick 🇺🇸 tonight:

7 saves
2.73 xGOT faced
1 goal conceded
8.6 FotMob rating (Man of the Match)

Needs to get a look with the USA U20s.

— American Ultras Talk (@ameriultrastalk) September 19, 2024

 

Celentano had a very good game per the highlights & fan reaction, making multiple big saves, but goals prevented was only marginally positive. Shows how much it's skewed by small sample effect & we shouldn't treat that stat as gospel. It levels out plenty over time, but there's often no difference between a -.1/game per game either way. It shouldn't rule our decisions. We can factor in other stats, eye test, & context, i.e. like importance of game/situation then.

Schulte's actually given the much better goals prevented # (.61) in a clean sheet at Toronto, but from the highlights it was a much easier job than Celentano had. Made a couple decent saves.

Callender was rated moderately negative in the metrics. I'd say neutral from the highlights. Let in a soft one, but made a couple big saves.

The highlights confirm Freese did have a couple fumblefingers on balls right on him and no big saves. So off night for him.

White Boy Rick was the star of the match. Was on everything in his area. The physical tools are underwhelming at this point & his Next Pro stats weren't great. Could be the next Melia though.

 

In '22 Celentano was 34th in MLS in PSxG+-, Gaga was 26th in MLS. In PSxG+- per 90 back in '22, Gaga was 12th, and Celentano was 15th.

That's the advanced goalkeeping stat used as the go to evaluative tool for how effective a player is, largely independent of what his team is doing around him (expected goals essentially). Gaga finished ahead of Celentano whether you used the raw stat, or divided it per 90 to isolate performance on a per start basis.

Gaga was better, period.

This season Celentano is doing quite well in the stat (9th in just PSxG+-), 10th in per 90, last year he was substantially worse (29th and 18th respectively).

Last year Gaga was absolute crap as well in Belgium, so there's that.

 

Doubling down on ignorance. And this is the problem. This has already been explained to you why that's not arguably or even likely the case, w/ the context of sample size, game importance, distribution, etc.

 

Nobody who actually watched them playing would say that Slonina was better than Celentano in 2022.

 

For people keeping track, this year, anyway, the big dogs with USMNT relevance in terms of PSxG+-/per 90:
Schulte +.26 (2nd)
Freese +.22 (5th)
Callendar +.16 (8th)
Celentano +.12 (10th)

Brady's at the bottom of the pile (28th), and Beavers (27th) must have had some bad starts because he's fallen to the bottom as well. Brady was 13th, and ahead of all 4 of the above dudes in '23, so I will freely admit, I don't really get what's happening here. But I definitely think that part of the story is that Brady is the only guy who plays for a team that's hot garbage, and where the defense in front of him is consistently unreliable.

 

Ignorance? Really. Sample size? In '22 they played what, 28 versus 33 games? This isn't a situation where one guy played 8 games and so it was small sample size bias. they both played more than two dozen, and close to 3. Additionally Celentano played for a 5th place playoff team, and like Brady, Gaga played for a trash team at the bottom of the standings.

It's math.

And ftr, Celentano is playing quite well in this year, and I've included him in my group of guys I want called in along with Schulte, and Freese from MLS. Gaga's been crap last year, and erratic this year, I've got no problem with Celentano getting called in, he's playing well. Schulte and Freese look like they're playing the best of the MLS options.

 

The #'s say he was, and I trust the #'s more than your eyes or mine.

 

It's bad & inconsistent math. Slonina only played 11 games. How is that a season? It's 1/3 of one. Aren't you one of the people who said Freese just broke out this year? Last yr he practically had the same amount of games and data as Gaga the prior 1 - 10 games, +.14 psxg+/-.

And do you need someone just to list Celentano's psxg+/- from his 2 playoff matches where he had a save % of 85, and that totally changes the narrative cuz he'd be well in the positives after? Like how much this is technicality vs. reality & pedantic is amazing. I hope whoever's in charge of data & analysis on Poch's staff is more nuanced & comprehensive.

 

Thanks for bringing some stats to the discussion. How that translates to actual performance I am not sure, that’s just my ignorance, but I like to learn something here now and then.

 

I don't trust keepers' numbers, especially those that rate Celentano as one of the worst keepers in the league, when he was one of the best. He started to get MNT calls based on the 22 season.

 

He's also injured me thinks.

 

It’s more of a short term injury.

If he really is who they see as the successor we’d in theory see him a bit at some point (though not immediately). It will be Pena for now but Barcelona started three 17 year olds to start the season (one has since been injured). They aren’t afraid of throwing in young players from the academy. Especially now with their financial issues.

 

Do they really though? Their advanced shot stopping numbers were basically the same with Slonina's marginally better at -.02 compared to -.04. However Celentano had 0 errors leading to a shot while Slonina had 3.

 

If Barca go to an 18 year old keeper with 2 starts in the 3rd division..........................they're in bigger hell than I thought.

They'll go with Inaki Peña, and then try to address things in the January window. Maybe a loan or whatever.

Frankly, I'd still rather have Kochen start games for Barca B than be on the bench for Barca. Let Astralaga sit on the bench with the first team.

Ter Stegen getting injured, and Barca being left with their pants around their ankles without a proven high-level keeper, highlights their difficult financial position.

 

From the Athletic’s reporting

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5788466/2024/09/23/ter-stegen-injury-barcelona-signing-replacement/

Perhaps the most interesting profile is that of United States youth international Diego Kochen.

The 18-year-old, Miami-born goalkeeper was called up for the senior U.S. national team for the first time last month, but he is yet to play at that level. He joined Barca in 2019 and signed a professional contract with the club in 2022. La Masia sources describe him as a very bright prospect — and say he is the academy goalkeeper most likely to progress into a first-team option.

There is a but, however. Kochen suffered a hamstring injury last week, which was expected to keep him out for about a month.

The opportunity afforded by Ter Stegen’s long-term absence might come just a bit too soon for Kochen, who only made his debut with Barca’s reserve side (Barcelona Atletic, who play in Spain’s third tier) last season.

This term, the club’s plan was for the young American to stay with Barca Atletic so he can experience more playing time with them. Ter Stegen’s injury means we will have to keep an eye on whether that plan now changes.

With Kochen out of action for now, the back-up to Pena will be Ander Astralaga, at least initially. The 20-year-old joined Barca from Athletic Bilbao in 2018 and has played for Spain at under-18 and under-19 level. Last season he made 19 appearances for Barca Atletic. He has already been a part of first-team squads over the past year and will have a bigger role now.

 

It’ll be Pena for now. But you’d like to see with Kochen is them give him a few opportunities here and there like in Cup games or against bottom of the table La Liga teams.

Barcelona does have financial issues but also of the elite clubs globally is probably most willing in terms of throwing in young guys from their academy historically.