US vs. Portugal: General Post Game Thread(R)

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Lloyd Heilbrunn, Jun 22, 2014.

  1. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    Not to get all silly and OT, but maybe this was some other LouisZ? (and those took about 30 seconds...)

    "Best positions would be for LD as the SS and Dempsey as the left bench. Johannsson should start. (sept. 9)"

    "Dempsey to start? he can't even keep up with MLSers. (Oct 14, 2013)"

    At least Mike LaWarmth had the stones to own his misjudgement.

    Look, it's not a federal crime, but you, CK and a few others were telling a few of around here what clueless fools we were for saying Demps was a big game player and wait til June to see what he really was going to bring. That just is.

    Now back to your regularly scheduled post game forum.
     
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  2. backpackpenguin

    Jul 8, 2007
    New York, NY
    This is as close as I could get it to stopping at the moment of the pass.

    [​IMG]

    Here is right after the pass, making a run to the corner.

    [​IMG]

    I'll leave it up to you to judge if he was level with Veloso when the pass was made.
     
  3. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    Yeah, I think that was really a huge mistake on Mikey's part, honestly. I know everyone hates to see it, but if he falls on the ball, there's no goal. Or Yedlin holds till he gets kicked - and goes down.

    It's ugly. We hate it. And it wins games.
     
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  4. freisland

    freisland Member+

    Jan 31, 2001
    Looks well on to me from that angle, but it's not a very definitive angle.
     
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  5. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    Nah, he looks even. Thanks; it was the angle on the replay.
     
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  6. backpackpenguin

    Jul 8, 2007
    New York, NY
    Yeah true, unfortunately I doubt I can find a better camera angle though. It's definitely a close enough call from any TV angle I've seen that I would trust the AR over my own eyes, anyway.

    Cheers! It's always hard to tell from these TV angles, including the one I posted here.
     
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  7. Fernandont Scorres

    Jun 26, 2011
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #1182 Fernandont Scorres, Jun 23, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
    I am more concerned with the stat that 100% of teams have lost their next game following their Manaus one. Add in the fact that Ghana is on an extra days rest and I feel like a 25-30% chance of them beating Portugal is a bit deceptive. In just my basic opinion, I think it's at the very least a coin flip between those two.

    I wouldn't put it past a sports book to play up the FIFA rankings angle in order to get the majority of money going against Ghana. Two fairly evenly matched teams and Ghana has just about everything else going for them? Could be a big pay day for sports books from this game.
     
  8. Ictar

    Ictar Member

    Jun 18, 2002
    The Oklahoma Panhandle
    If Portugal shows up feeling like it is already defeated it will be a blowout for Ghana. If Portugal plays for pride and plays better than they played us, who knows. But if Ghana goes up and Portugal implodes again I feel like Ghana could hang more on them than that German team did that didn't even seem to be trying. We absolutely have to come out firing on all cylinders. Even if we lose we have to score a shit ton of goals so Ghana doesn't make up the goal differential. I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it here, if we are down a goal at the 65th minute I want 3 of AJ, Wondo, Yedlin or Green to come on to this game and give it all we have.
     
  9. blech

    blech Member+

    Jun 24, 2002
    California
    That's not their standard business model. They aren't interested in more money being on one side or other (assuming everything is on the up and up). Not worth the risk. Keep the money on all sides even and they take home their cut. It's guaranteed money.
     
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  10. backpackpenguin

    Jul 8, 2007
    New York, NY
    Yep. Vegas always wins because you're not really betting against Vegas, you're betting against that guy who's betting for the opposite team.
     
  11. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    #1186 uclacarlos, Jun 23, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
    Yeah. When these guys try to dabble in new sports, it doesn't go so well.

    There has to be major consultation btw legit experts and stat geeks. Depending on the sport, that could take years/decades.

    The baseball stat revolution of the '90s was on the shoulders of *decades* of stats in a sport that truly lends itself to stats.
     
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  12. Fernandont Scorres

    Jun 26, 2011
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #1187 Fernandont Scorres, Jun 23, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
    I'm not too familiar with sports betting, all I know is if there's an opportunity for them or a casino to increase their odds for a profit they're going to take it. I'm assuming the more people that lose their bet, the more money they make right? I don't think Ghana is that big of an underdog, but making people believe that sounds like it could only help them even though the vig (thanks google) ensures they win either way.
     
  13. blech

    blech Member+

    Jun 24, 2002
    California
    I cannot believe Portugal comes into this game believing they are defeated. Beating Ghana by multiple goals would not be viewed as an impossible task, and they expect Germany to put a spanking on us. It's an uphill battle, but they have to be on as high of a high as could be right now having kept their tournament alive in the final seconds.

    As for implosion if they fall behind, yes, definitely possible, particularly as it gets late.
     
  14. blech

    blech Member+

    Jun 24, 2002
    California
    That would be correct, but only if the right result comes in. I don't know what the percentage is, but think of it this way, for every dollar that is bet, imagine they will keep a nickel. And they're going to have a lot of money bet on each game. Their goal is to keep the money on each side even, and then scooping up all their nickels. They have little interest in gambling themselves, and generally the reason that you see odds or spreads change is because an uneven amount of money is coming in on one side. At least that's how I understand it.
     
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  15. backpackpenguin

    Jul 8, 2007
    New York, NY
    Nope, that's not the way it works. They actually have it set up so that they make a roughly even profit no matter which side wins. For example, maybe they will have 10 people betting $105 to get back $150 on Portugal winning, and 5 people betting $105 to get back $300. It doesn't matter who wins, they're paying out $1500 and taking back $1575 either way, so they make $75 off those 15 people making bets.
     
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  16. ebbro

    ebbro Member+

    Jun 10, 2005
    Someone posted a quote from Omar in this thread or another where he said his instructions were to play in front of the two CB's.
     
  17. Fernandont Scorres

    Jun 26, 2011
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for the explanations. I'm gonna throw some money on Ghana for the hell of it (blasphemy I know, everybody feel more than free to rip me apart) with them being given a goal. Portugal beating them by 2 goals in this game? I'm taking that bet. Ghana wins and it goes bad for us at least I'll have a little extra tissue to soak up my tears. Ghana loses, my pockets will be a little lighter but I won't be giving two shits as long as Portugal doesn't start eating away at our +5 goal differential...
     
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  18. Sam Hamwich

    Sam Hamwich Member+

    Jul 11, 2006
    Have to bring in Beez for the coin flip. He's my coin flip taker.
     
  19. Sam Hamwich

    Sam Hamwich Member+

    Jul 11, 2006
    Did you catch this? what was his morose, smirking, schadenfreunde response?
     
  20. VogelsingerKlinsmann

    Jun 22, 2014
    A couple things. How bad is Ronaldo's knee injury? He has not looked good and if his knee is not in great condition considering how many goals they would have to score to win the goal differential with Germany, and the fact that they could score 9 goals and it could all be for naught if the US and Germany draw then they might calculate that it's not worth it to risk Ronaldo's knee.

    As far as Ghana they lose Muntari which is a loss but KPB (Boateng) will probably take his place and they will probably get Waris back (the #2 striker, who has a great link up with Gyan) after missing the US and Germany game due to injury.

    Really the only realistic scenario from the Ghana/Portugal perspective is for Germany to kill the US and Ghana to win on goal difference because if the US beats Germany, German's goal difference is too high for either Ghana or Portugal to catch them. Germany will actually be able to advance with a 0-1 or 0-2 loss to the US.

    So as someone else mentioned it's not a perfect prisoner's dilemma for Germany. Germany can really come out trying to win without worrying about not making the knockout stage. So the US has to play to win and not go for the draw, which is a loser's mentality. Klinsman won't allow that.
     
  21. backpackpenguin

    Jul 8, 2007
    New York, NY
    I think the only possibility we have for a coin flip is a pretty outlandish scenario where Portugal beats Ghana 4-0 and Germany beats the US 2-1. We own the head-to-head with Ghana so there's no coin flip there.
     
  22. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Member+

    Feb 11, 2002
    Jupiter, Fl.
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Front sweeper not D mid, we had those already.
     
  23. Sam Hamwich

    Sam Hamwich Member+

    Jul 11, 2006
    I don't think you are realizing the high drama of Beez presiding over a coin flip.
     
  24. Ictar

    Ictar Member

    Jun 18, 2002
    The Oklahoma Panhandle
    Loser's mentality? Going for a win? I don't see that TBH. Playing the bunker and trying to just keep up is the loser's mentality. Going out there and attacking and saying, "Ok, you want to play catch up Ghana? Try and keep up." is a winning mentality. Or is that not what you were saying?
     
  25. Sam Hamwich

    Sam Hamwich Member+

    Jul 11, 2006
    yes, but he conveniently forgot to ask WHICH CBs.
     

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