Review: US Soccer & MLS Data Analysis & Root Cause Analysis

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by appoo, Oct 11, 2017.

  1. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Hopiung to use some data to start testing out some theories.

    I'll begin with MLS, and how it ranks in terms of foreign players.

    According to MLS, on opening day this year, they had 228 US Born players on their rosters. According my math, that's 37% of eligible roster spots (28 per team, 22 teams), filled by US Born players.

    Take a look at Europe.

    http://www.marca.com/en/football/spanish-football/2017/03/06/58bdd151e2704e46488b4631.html

    MLS would be 2nd on that list, in terms of foreign talent making up a league

    Percentages per league
    1. Premier League 64%
    2. Jupiler Pro League 60.,1%
    3. Ligan NOS 56.1%
    4. Gibraltar Premier Division 55.8%
    5. Scottish Premiership 53.2%
    6. Bundesliga 53%
    7. Serie A 52%
    8. Turkish Super Lig 51.8%
    9. Swiss Super League 49.2%
    10. Malta Premier League 44.9%
    11. Ligue 1 43.4%
    12. LaLiga 42,8%
     
  2. jmplautz

    jmplautz Member

    Jul 28, 2007
    Madison
    If it's good for the English, then it must be good for us :rolleyes:

    Its the reason why everyone says that the rest of CONCACAF has benefited more than we have.

    It would be nice to see that tick a bit closer to 50% split.

    I would also like to see an age break down for MLS.
     
  3. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    This is an interesting number and worth thinking about, but I'm not sure what to make of it. My guess is that most of the Americans are towards the bottom of the roster and the 28th best player on an MLS team is not very good. Is your suggestion that we replace some international players with the 29th or 30th best player out there?
     
  4. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    One of my hypothesis is that MLS owners are taking a faster route to profitability by chasing foreign talent - young and old - rather than investing more in developing domestic talent.

    Watching the Klinsmann years of MLS - it's noticable the lack of players that developed for the US. I can think of Yedlin & Cameron off the top of my head.

    Compare it to prior eras you had Donovan, Beasley, Convey, Eddie Johnson, Jozy, Bradley, Bocanegra, among others who were produced in MLS and went on to pretty good careers.
     
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    This, to me, is the real crux of the matter: why (in recent years) has MLS developed other CONCACAF teams faster than it has developed the USMNT?
     
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  6. dougtee

    dougtee Member+

    Feb 7, 2007
    sign a 20 yo out of honduras or t&t thats played professionally there for a few years rather than give a similarly aged 'homegrown' a shot?
     
  7. jmplautz

    jmplautz Member

    Jul 28, 2007
    Madison
    Pulling the first 4 off your list, those guys were given the keys and told to drive from day one. How often is that happening today? Not very often.
     
  8. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Take a look at the Pool we had available for these last few HEX matches, (and I'll expand this list to include players we might include in a world cup) and let's split them up by WC Cycle. 2006 means developed DURING the 2006 cycle, from 2002 through 2006. And By developed, I mean developed into what the caliber of player you see today.

    PLAYER POS.
    Kellyn Acosta - MLS 2018
    Juan Agudelo - MLS 2010
    Jozy Altidore - MLS 2010
    Paul Arriola - FOREIGN
    DaMarcus Beasley - MLS 2006
    Alejandro Bedoya - FOREIGN
    Matt Besler - MLS 2014
    Michael Bradley - MLS 2010
    Geoff Cameron - MLS 2014
    Clint Dempsey - MLS 2006
    Benny Feilhaber - FOREIGN
    Omar Gonzalez - MLS 2014
    Brad Guzan - FOREIGN
    Tim Howard - MLS 2002
    Dax McCarty - MLS 2010
    Darlington Nagbe - MLS 2014
    Michael Orozco - FOREIGN
    Christian Pulisic - FOREIGN
    Tim Ream - MLS 2010
    Nick Rimando - MLS 2006
    Jorge Villafana - MLS 2018
    Chris Wondolowski - MLS 2014
    Bobby Wood - FOREIGN
    DeAndre Yedlin- MLS 2014
    Jordan Morris - MLS 2018
    Fabian Johnson - FOREIGN
    John Anthony Brooks - FOREIGN
    Matt Miazga - FOREIGN
    Emerson Hyndman - FOREIGN
    Wes - FOREIGN
    Cameron Carter-Vickers - FOREIGN
    Erick Palmer-Brown - MLS 2018 & FOREIGN


    Compare this to our 2014 Roster:
    Brad Guzan (Aston Villa) - FOREIGN
    Tim Howard (Everton) - FOREIGN
    Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake) - MLS 2006
    DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla) - MLS 2006
    Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City) - MLS 2014
    John Brooks (Hertha Berlin) - FOREIGN
    Geoff Cameron (Stoke City) - MLS 2014
    Timmy Chandler (Nürnberg) - FOREIGN
    Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy) - MLS 2014
    Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach) - FOREIGN
    DeAndre Yedlin (Seattle Sounders FC) - MLS 2014
    Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake) - MLS 2010
    Alejandro Bedoya (Nantes) - FOREIGN
    Michael Bradley (Toronto FC) - FOREIGN
    Brad Davis (Houston Dynamo) - MLS 2010
    Mix Diskerud (Rosenborg) - FOREIGN
    Julian Green (Bayern Munich) - FOREIGN
    Jermaine Jones (Besiktas) - FOREIGN
    Graham Zusi (Sporting Kansas City) - MLS 2014
    Jozy Altidore (Sunderland) - MLS 2010
    Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders FC) - MLS 2006
    Aron Johannsson (AZ Alkmaar) - FOREIGN
    Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes) - MLS 2014

    our 2010 Roster:

    Brad Guzan - FOREIGN
    Marcus Hahnemann - FOREIGN
    Tim Howard - MLS 2002/FOREIGN
    Carlos Bocanegra - MLS 2006
    Jonathan Bornstein - MLS 2010
    Steve Cherundolo - FOREIGN
    Jay DeMerit - FOREIGN
    Clarence Goodson - FOREIGN
    Oguchi Onyewu - FOREIGN
    Jonathan Spector - FOREIGN
    DaMarcus Beasley - MLS 2006
    Michael Bradley - MLS 2010
    Ricardo Clark - MLS 2010
    Clint Dempsey - MLS 2006
    Landon Donovan - MLS 2006
    Maurice Edu - MLS 2010
    Benny Feilhaber - FORIEGN
    Stuart Holden- MLS 2010
    Jose Torres - FOREIGN
    Jozy Altidore - MLS 2010
    Edson Buddle - MLS 2010
    Robbie Findley - MLS 2010
    Herculez Gomez - MLS 2010


    So in the prior 2 managers under 2 different managers, we mostly relied upon foreign developed, stars from prior generations, and current generation MLS players.

    Bradley had 9 MLS players who develope during the 2010 cycle, Klinsmann had 7. Arena hd a potential of 3.

    I think that's teling of a change in MLS owners' strategy
     
  9. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    One of the thing that puzzles me was that MLS didn't actually spend a lot on development for the prior generation and yet somehow we produced better players. Maybe MLS is spending their money unwisely. Maybe it's luck; we just had our golden generation (by our standards) and now it's over.
     
    FLSoccerGran repped this.
  10. UxSxAxfooty

    UxSxAxfooty Member+

    Jan 23, 2003
    Rochester, NY
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course, the reverse is also possible as an explanation: MLS owners are investing in foreign talent because the domestic talent is no good.

    Not taking a stand, just doesn't seem to me the data can separate those two stories.
     
    Just Offside repped this.
  11. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    One of the differences is that MLS pays much better now. Once you get a bunch of players in the $800k-$200k range, the rest of the world becomes much more interested.
     
  12. PacmanJr_00

    PacmanJr_00 Member

    Aug 29, 2010
    Club:
    Southampton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How does that contrast to La Liga MX? I seem to recall reading they require clubs to utilize youth players in first teams and that has helped their improvement for the national team.
     
  13. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    #13 appoo, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
    Why would you, when franchises could get more experienced, which means more on field production, from a foreigner?

    I think studying Luis Gil would be interesting in this case. I mean it turns out he lacked basic work ethic - but I wonder what happens if RSL had allowed Javier Moralas to walk after his 2012 contract ended? And here's the thing - Javier was one of the best playmakers in the league, and a bit of a club legend. But they also had one of the crown jewels of US Youth Soccer waiting for his shot.

    What woud have been more valuable for RSL? Developing and motivating Gil (who had a lot of natural talent) and hoping to tap his potential to get themselves a US born star in attacking position, or keeping Moralas? Mind you they finished runners up in 2013.
     
  14. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    That's hard for me to square, analytically. You're talking about the largest youth playing population on the planet, one that's become a cottage industry for poaching tweenagers and teenagers for European clubs - and from locations in MLS' backyard.

    But I'm not saying MLS should be signing McKennie, Hyndman, Pulisic, or Sargaent - that's legit compeition from big time Euro clubs - what I am saying is what they heck is going on with the much larger population of kids who are just behind them? It's inconcievable that the talent gap is so huge behind those elite talents, to what MLS wants to see in the developmental prospects, that they have to fill their younger ranks with foreign kids.
     
    DHC1 repped this.
  15. UxSxAxfooty

    UxSxAxfooty Member+

    Jan 23, 2003
    Rochester, NY
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess what I had in mind is more like your Gil example.

    One "what if?" is Gil's development had he received consistent playing time in his preferred position rather than Morales. What we don't know, however, is whether Gil didn't get that playing time because RSL perceived (correctly, it seems) that Gil would never be able to get to that level.
     
  16. jond

    jond Member+

    Sep 28, 2010
    Club:
    Levski Sofia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just commented on this in another thread, and last week in another but I agree, it's a major part of the problem.

    The problem I see it is MLS player development stalled. The answer to that was to either 1) confront the issue head on and figure out how to develop better Americans, particularly attackers as that's what excites fans or 2) find a way to inject that talent into the league from elsewhere.

    MLS chose two. At first a single DP slot with Beckham. Then a 2nd. Then a 3rd. Then TAM. Then a TAM increase. Now we'll see a major TAM increase. It's all directed at foreigners or Americans who left and went abroad and had success. But mostly foreigners, there's no Clint or Bradley overseas to buy anymore.

    It was a short-sided solution. In the ratings fight the league went after foreigners, first big name old Euros, then younger ones like Giovinco, now South Americans like Josef and Almiron. And the league/system is set up to continue that. That's the major red flag here. That scares me looking at 2022. When I consider young American attackers who can revamp this squad looking at 2019 and 2020, there's none of them in MLS about to break out. It's not like we can sit here and say that at least there's a bunch of young bubbling American attackers about to break out in MLS in the next 1-2 years.

    Instead we're going to see yet another injection of foreign attackers into the league this winter and next summer. The looming TAM increase is directed to do exactly that.

    What's quite unfortunate to me is MLS could be a very good place for our young attackers. But their system is making it worse and worse as each year goes by. Gone are the days of teenage Bradley/Jozy/Convey/Landon/EJ/Beasley starting at 18/19 and using the league to vault up the pyramid. Now what we see far more of is a 22 yr old Acosta stalling for a bad FCD squad.

    I'd say we have a deeper pool than ever, 1-100. We also have more players stalling than ever who fail to become legit international level starters, who hit their ceilings. There's also this weird comfort and complacency level in the current 22-30 yr old crop. Perhaps that comfort is why they wilted under the lights last night. Only guy who really seemed up for it is the one thrown into the BVB lion's den.
     
    juveeer repped this.
  17. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    I agree with this for Pulicic, but also for the CONCACAF players in MLS, who seem to show more fire in the international games. But I thought the argument was that to make players tough, you need to throw them into an environment where the only way they play is to beat out other players for playing time. Doesn't having MLS give preferential playing time to US players - even if the foreign player is better, we must play the US player - work in the opposite direction.
     
    Just Offside repped this.
  18. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    How much of the percentage decline in Americans participation in MLS is due to expansion? Perhaps the owners want to grow the game faster than our talent base and they've tapped the global market?

    Or has the level of play risen above our base level and they've tapped the global market to meet it?
     
  19. largegarlic

    largegarlic Member+

    Jul 2, 2007
    I've been thinking this for a while now. MLS owners (justifiably) want to be the next EPL, not the next Eredivisie (or any other 2nd-tier league we associate with developing young talent).

    I think they're marginally interested in promoting American players, because ties-in with the USMNT are still good for business, and there is still some marketing value in saying that you were able to sign the next hot, young American talent (e.g., Adu or Morris). But other than that, if you have the money, why bet on an 18-year-old American potentially being able to fill a role in the starting 11 with some development, when you can buy a 28-year-old Colombian/Costa Rican/Argentinean/etc., whom you know can do it now?
     
  20. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    So what is the rule in Mexico? The game day 18 has to have at least 9 Mexican players? So the equivalent for the US would be that a team would have to have 9 US citizens or green card holders. Would this change things much?

    Are there leagues where there are requirements to play a certain number of young players?
     
  21. jond

    jond Member+

    Sep 28, 2010
    Club:
    Levski Sofia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it's both.

    MLS is hesitant, some coaches even outright refuse, to give chances to young American attackers but it also doesn't help that much to just throw mediocre players out there. Mediocre is mediocre.

    What I'd like is the compromise, our most elite young American attackers given mins in MLS at 17-19 and use that as a spring board up the pyramid. But those kids increasingly don't think MLS is a good place for that so they're signing overseas.

    A guy like Pulisic does have to fight every single day in training to protect his spot. He's commented on that. There are no days off. At the same time, BVB first had to be willing to give him mins over a Schurrle, and in a squad with the likes of Reus, Kagawa, Gotze, Dembele, etc.

    Meanwhile FCD won't even give Pomykal mins over Michael Barrios and ATL won't give Carleton mins over Villalba and Asad. Carleton has 4 MLS mins this season for Christ's sake, Pomykal has like 140. So either two of our most highly rated 17 yr olds can't compete with the likes of Barrios and Villalba, while Pulisic at 17 got mins over Marco frickin Reus, or due to the system and lack of incentive, there's not much reason to give them chances.
     
  22. MPNumber9

    MPNumber9 Member+

    Oct 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's already cheaper to use an equivalent young American who is "free" against the cap than hire a foreign player. Of course a team is not going to sacrifice production to give a player a chance because the first priority is to win football matches. If MLS had these players, any coach would use them.

    This is exactly my point: Gil had plenty of time with RSL. Thinking it's RSL's (or anybody's) job to hold Gil's hand and "motivate" him to be great is part of the problem. (Well, that and people thinking Gil was some kind of savior derailed by MLS; he also flopped in Mexico, indicating he's just not as big a talent as some apparently assumed.). Anybody who needs such coddling is probably not going to be an MLS star, let alone a NT great.

    The generation of greats that came through MLS before (LD, Beasley, Howard, Dempsey etc.) played because they were ready to contribute on the field and better than the next option, not because someone gave them handouts. Stop waiting for MLS to give young Americans welfare and start looking for the next group of Americans that are going to seize their opportunities by the throat the same way the last generation of MLS-based greats did.
     
  23. tbonepat11

    tbonepat11 Member+

    Jun 21, 2001
    Bundasliga is a more friendly and challenging environment for our young players then MLS. We could field a starting 11 Bundasliga squad that would get us to the World Cup.
     
  24. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    I don't entirely disagree with this, but if Donovan or Beasley - at 20 or 21 - had to go up against experienced South American or European talent, say someone like Romain Allessandri or Pele Van Anholt - would they have had the success they earned early in their careers?

    I'm not condoning giving young US players jobs without competition, I am suggesting we are creating to high of a barrier for them.

    I like to work in Metaphores, and the one I'm reaching here is asking a 2nd round NFL draft pick to beat out a big money Free Agent who's in his prime.
     
  25. cleansheetbsc

    cleansheetbsc Member+

    Mar 17, 2004
    Club:
    --other--
    1. Guzan was US developed.
    2. Yeah things work differently in MLS. (A) Get team (B) Get shiny stadium (C) build up first team (D) Build an academy (sometimes, even reluctantly), so yes we do it backward.

    I've said this before, youth player development is not a necessity in the business model of MLS. Bless the teams that have turned it into a positive, but in the grand scheme, Academies are a cash drag or just a PR thing for a lot of MLS. For European teams, these developed players become part of the business model.
     

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