Post-match: US-Honduras 2/6, general Post-match thread [R]

I am not being snarky at all. A lot or entities before they adopt OPTA do just what you describe, they do a parallel run for a period of time (10 matches, 3 months, whatever) and compare results.

 

Zusi assisted on Eddie Johnson's first goal in Antigua. He also delivered corner kicks in Kansas City vs Guatemala.

 

He is sort of on the borderline, isnt he? Critics would say he is good against bunkering teams. We will see some of those, I expect, unless our concacaf opponents have lost all their fear of us.

 

Two things:
- enough sample? like a hundred games? ten seasons?
- "more key passes is providing value". you dont get points for taking shots; so this is a false assumption

 

No like 5 to 10 games would probably show a players form.


Roughly 9 shots = 1 goal = .75 points (based on a study of the EPL)

Factors that can change that are the quality of the finisher (which is out of the passer's control) and the quality of the chance. So to increase the number of goals, and points, you need to either 1) Increase the number of shots (while maintaining the same average difficulty of the chance) 2) Decrease the average difficulty of finishing the chances you create or 3) Increase the average conversion rate of your shot takers (through player selection or by focusing service to your better finishers).

 

The MLS (OPTA) data is similar with a 15% conversion rate of Chance to goal or ~7 chances per 1 goal. The "Big Chance" conversion rate for MLS is 43%.

 

What's the definition of a chance?

 

Beyoncé stumbling out of the Cheesecake Factory drunk and upset that JZ is doing Rihanna and crying that she wants payback!

 

I don't think so.

But these numbers are very different per team, and per league, per position/player.

No. The quality of the chance is also out of the passer's control; just as well as the quality of the finisher is in the passer's control. **

** Which is by the way a huge problem for the 'key pass' stat as it completely disregards the non-converted 'key passes'.

 

The biggest issue with Zusi is announcers keep claiming he's there to replace Donovan and comparing him to Donovan, and thus people keep comparing him to Donovan. He's always going to look bad in that regard. I don't mind him as a decent technical midfielder. He won't beat anyone on the dribble or for pace, but he delivers a nice ball, is accurate with his passing, and has OK creativity. He has value for this side, but it's unfair to expect Donovan-like things from him as announcers keep asserting.

 

This is totally false. It is important to understand something that you are sniping at.

The key pass stat only shows "non-converted" chances. Converted chances are shown as wait for it, ....... assists!

 

Hahaha.
No, the key pass stat only shows non converted goal attempts.
I clearly said "non-converted 'key passes'".

Get it?

 

Why don't you think 5-10 games is enough? From what I've seen there aren't wild swings in this stat and even if there were 5-10 games would still smooth out the average to at the very least reflect that player's form.

But there's a baseline that establishes average value. So while there are factors that affect the exact value of each key pass they still hold, on average, value. I've suggested ways you could adjust for the quality of teammates. I'm certain there are statistical techniques that could be used that could show that player A would increase the number of shots a team takes over player B by providing more quality service. I'm also sure that you could also prove that player C provides higher quality service than player D because the shooters off player C's shots are more likely than their average rate to finish than player D's. Combine those two things and your own your way to creating an offensive passing VORP stat.

 

I think Zusi's a box to box mid. He can play on the wing if he has a great overlapping back(Dolo, Chandler when in form and not exhausted from travel).

Chandler couldn't do that against Honduras(he was probably just too tired to do that).

He's a better attacker/goal getter than Bradley or Jones. But lacking a bit in everything else.

He should be an offensive sub for one of them, I think.

 

I may be in the minority, but if I want more attacking firepower, I don't think I take off either Bradley or Jones for Zusi.

(I just might consider Zusi for Williams, sliding Mike further back...)

 

There are wild things:

- And as we can tell from look at just the latest Chalkboard, with only five key passes over a full game I would say 5-10 games won't smooth out the average.
- I will point out again that this the key pass stat completely disregards unconverted key passes which to me seems quite a problem.

And I've pointed out that's it not possible to adjust for the quality of teammates.

And I've pointed out that's it not possible to adjust for the quality of teammates.
Besides this is not something 5-10 matches will point out, rather to 5-10 years.

 

I don't think you're wrong at all. I don't think Zusi is cut out for international play.

We go to hell when Jones leaves the field.