Yes, they are. However, you said you don't see any reason why the top 4 won't be the guys you listed... ...And here's my reason. Inconsistency and mistakes are just killers in defense. GK and CBs have little room for error. Steffen has been inconsistent his whole career, always overrated as a shot stopper, and has a bad back at times. Could he develop further and become a clear top level GK? Sure. But we have a three year time horizon, and while a coach is going to start with the name, I'm not convinced he's better than whoever is the Melia/Frei/Stuver equivalent. Horvath is just inconsistent. People have always wondered how he can make great saves, can do well in the Champions League and then get benched? It's howlers and poor play that come for him. Coaches don't like that. Again, I think he has the potential to be even better than Zack. But if he is still making those kind of mistakes in 2026, other people can overtake him. And Slonina has more potential than almost anyone, but his production was mediocre in MLS last year. So he's got to get more production, though I agree he is more likely to get it. I guess my point is this: this isn't such a certain group that I'd bet against the field. Pre-Turner emergence, people seemed fairly certain of Steffen and he didn't even go to Qatar. None of these guys are Tim Howard, where it's unlikely to see a run of form that gets them dropped.
Below are all of the players aged 30 or younger who started regularly in MLS during the 2022 season or in the Championship during the 22-23 season, along with their Whoscored or Sofascore ratings for those seasons. Whoscored 1. Roman Celentano (22) - 6.75 2. Zack Steffen (27) - 6.67 3. Drake Callender (25) - 6.64 4. Gabriel Slonina (18) - 6.56 5. Alex Bono (28) - 6.54 6. JT Marcinkowski (25) - 6.49 7. Ethan Horvath (27) - 6.42 (For reference, Matt Turner (28) had a 6.95 for his 2021 season.) Sofascore 1. Zack Steffen (27) - 6.9 2. Roman Celentano (22) - 6.85 3. Ethan Horvath (27) - 6.82 3. Drake Callender (25) - 6.82 5. Gabriel Slonina (18) - 6.81 6. Alex Bono (28) - 6.8 7. JT Marcinkowski (25) - 6.78 (For reference, Matt Turner (28) had a 7.04 for his 2021 season.) Both of those systems have Celentano and Steffen as their top keepers (though neither one can beat Matt Turner's score the last time he was starting regularly), and both have JT Marcinkowski near the bottom. Am I missing anyone else in that age range in a comparable league who started regularly in 2022 (i.e., a good majority of their club's games)? Otherwise, that's a slightly smaller pool than I was expecting.
I think with Steffen his shot stopping stats in MLS were never on the level of Turner, but he was the MLS goalkeeper of the year and MLS Best XI in 2018 right before he left.
I don't think the cumulative metrics do as good of a job as psxg+/- for keepers, though that still leaves some things out too, like claiming crosses & ball-playing. The cumulative metrics are better for outfielders. The Celentano stats also exclude a couple playoff matches & the first game of this season. He's been a monster in these. That would put him over the top. In conjunction with his age, that puts him on a trajectory to surpass the likes of Steffen and Horvath, if he already hasn't. Trajectories aren't linear, it must be said though. He could stagnate or regress. Typically you're going to improve as a young player however. And this hasn't come out of nowhere if you follow his career. I think people should be fairly excited about his near future. A player but not positional analog who I saw early in MLS I'd compare to him is Miles Robinson. He was young enough, performed well as soon as he got a shot, & had plus tools. But he sort of got overlooked by prospect onlookers for YNT members and younger kids who just showed flashes or had worse tools.
I got swept up in at the time somewhat I admit, but it was a joke he was anywhere those awards, and it was heavily based on doing well in a penalty shootout at the end of the season. That was a small sample and niche skill for a keeper.
The hype. He wasn't even in the top 5 that year. Like immense hype around very talented Slonina last year.
In addition to the bit I responded about Celentano, I should note that between his good start, Callendars, as well as the elevation of Pulskamp (21) and Schulte (21) as starters for now, in addition to it being realistic that Brady (18-19) will seize the job in Chicago; this is trending to being a vastly improved year for domestic goalkeeping prospects in MLS. Last year was a historically bad season in that regard. It was between generations, and the last position to benefit from the academy boom is naturally going to be goalkeeper.
I haven't seen enough of young kids, but like with Celentano having Callenders in the goal would make me comfortable. And, please, let's stop mentioning TJ and especially Bono in the NT threads.
Slonina Gabriel Slonina with a four-save performance today as Chelsea's U-21 side defeated Manchester United 3-1. Slonina has made 13 saves over his past three starts in performances against Liverpool, Arsenal, and now Man U. Chelsea is two points behind PL2 leaders Man City. #USMNT— Larry Henry Jr (@lhenry019) March 6, 2023 Another solid PL2 performance by Gaga Slonina against Manchester United U21 💪 Had 4 saves but conceded his first goal of the season (per @CarefreeYouth) #USMNT 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/JiIG1BmTv9— 🇺🇸 USMNTvsHaters (@USMNTvsHaters) March 6, 2023
Good article in the Athletic on Slonina's adjustment to Chelsea https://theathletic.com/4307418/2023/03/16/slonina-chelsea-chicago-fire/
Bill Hamid is 32. Still technically in his prime, but has been hampered by injuries. Tim Howard is the sporting director at Memphis. Sources: Former #usmnt and #DCU goalkeeper Bill Hamid has signed with USL Championship side Memphis 901. https://t.co/k0KU8YEtqy— Jeff Carlisle (@JeffreyCarlisle) March 20, 2023
I think he’s done, his body just won’t respond correctly. He was once cat quick and could get low with best of the best but that’s all over. I’m glad he’ll keep playing if he wants to but MLS would have been a mistake.
Matt Turner's preparing the Gunners for a stateside trip to remember.@Arsenal will face the best of MLS in Washington, DC, for the 2023 #MLSAllStar Game presented by @Target! pic.twitter.com/hYuCW0eb0y— Major League Soccer (@MLS) March 21, 2023
The future is bright for @RapidsAcademy goalkeeper, Adam Beaudry 🧤✨Adam describes his journey through the Rapids Academy system and what it felt like to represent his country at the U17 CONCACAF Championships.Watch the full Academy Report » https://t.co/gznDsAQnb7 pic.twitter.com/EIFGdRIFSI— Colorado Rapids (@ColoradoRapids) March 21, 2023
Tenorio had an extensive discussion with Zack Steffen. Sounds like religious faith was a key element to Steffen in moving on from missing the World Cup, along with focus on his opportunity with Middlesbrough. Steffen does mention that he had to miss out on the June 2022 callup due to personal reasons. Perhaps the unfortunate timing on that played a role: https://theathletic.com/4344089/2023/03/24/usmnt-zack-steffen-world-cup/
Really great that both Steffen and Horvath are playing constantly and doing well. They can really compete and help push Turner. I always felt that was great about having Howard/Guzan 10-15 years ago. Howard knew he couldn't slack off and would perform superbly and we knew that Guzan was reliable enough as a backup. Not sure why Hudson didn't start Horvath or Steffen against Grenada.
Aaron Ramsdale with possibly the best Matt Turner story possible. 😂#MyPLMorning | #AFC pic.twitter.com/tbvxEO77Fe— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) March 31, 2023