ASA has him as -2 goals over the course of a season. That's below average but hardly far. I have no issues with him getting called in and playing in January. But in order to be a real option for me, he has to actually perform. It was one thing for people to call for prime Tim Melia or Stefan Frei; Celentano has not yet performed anywhere near that.
FBRef has him -1 for the regular season. The 1 goal difference is significant. It would move him below several regular keepers (who have pretty good reps btw) - Crepeau, Gallese, MacMath, Clark. He's currently above them. And like I said, when you factor in the 2 playoff games, he surely flips to marginal +/-'es at least, to be adjudged as a solid shotstopping keeper all of a sudden. Then he's above Slonina, Sean Johnson, Coronel, Miller, & Bono. As you can see, he's keeping company with other guys who are in the mix for us and other nat'l teams. So, he has earned it by merit. That's in addition to being an upward trajectory, where plenty of others would have have a downward or steady one. That's what your Melias & Freis had going against them. Yea, they all have to earn their keep with the nat'l team. But he's also one who warrants the entryway.
I think we're just saying different things. You think he's earned it over the other options for January camp; I don't really disagree. I'm just not putting a lot of thought into him for the broader discussion until he does a bit better.
I have no opinion on Stuver, but 35 is not too old for a keeper. You can look through the list of all the rosters in this WC for yourself. You'll see lots of keepers around or over 35. A recent American example is Nick Rimando, who maintained a very good level until about, what, 38 years old?
We have one keeper at or near our normal standard - Matt Turner. And beyond that it's a bunch of fluff. Celentano absorbs into the fluff, while having the young energy to climb out of it potentially, ala Slonina, & possibly Callendar. I don't think Horvath especially, and even Steffen, are totally hopeless. But they're in their prime for a keeper historically, which is late 20's per the Athletic's study. And yet they're still in the fluff. So these other young fluff alternatives are palatable for the near-term, let alone long-term. Long long-term I feel good about the situation because of our history and the options available in youth (though the Dewsnup exodus hurts a bit). But these guys like Brady may not even be ready by 2026. So a guy like Celentano, who will be 25 at that point, looks fairly attractive to throw out there now early in the cycle, and to potentially carry over to the A-team roster if he does well w/ these initial trials. It's that way with everybody, outside of good performers in top 5 leagues maybe. But even they sometimes don't earn their keep (Tim Chandler).
Not too old to keep on playing on a team where he is an established player, but nobody will bet on 31 years old to keep on improving for the next 4 years. Guzan passed his expiration date by 35, Hovard by 37, Keller by 36. Friedel and Rimando are anomalies.
Turner should be put in the good pile and set aside. SeanJohn and Guzan should be permanently pastured on an age basis. Then pick about 5-6 guys and give them each a 2 game window to make their case. Take about a year and a half and winnow it down to about 4 proven keepers. If it's GB tell him to get his fingers off the scales and quit trying to pick winners before they play games. Re Slonina and some of the younger guys, we have enough mature keepers where no special allowances should be made. You are ready to be a senior keeper or not. What I have seen thus far, while impressive for a kid, is an average first division pro keeper. He needs to make his case next year or so. IMO we need out of the bid-ness where we select players on analytics or promise. That should get you a foot in the door in camp.
If Turner, Slonina, and Celentano is our keeper pool next cycle we have improved at the keeper pool dramatically if the later two maintain their expected trajectory
How about Slo and Celey earn their caps. Nothing against the kids but nothing they've shown so far tells me that they are ready for even a Gold Cup cap versus the St. Vincent Heat.
I mean, they are ready for a Gold Cup match against St. Vincent. They are average MLS keepers. That's not a standard I want to bring to a World Cup, but they can handle St. Vincent. I'm not as sold on Celentano, but both Slonina and Brady have a ton of long term potential because they are really, really good shotstoppers. Whether they will add the mental decision making to their current quickness remains to be seen.
They have earned their camps for January camp. We don't have any domestic keepers that were much better than average who aren't already in their 30's. And even then it's only like 1-2. Them or Callendar will play in January camp, and they can earn their spots from that point forward. But they've already proven enough to be trusted against minnows competitively.
Celentano had a save % of 91 his sophomore year to earn nat'l defensive POY honors. I don't think you're informed about this boy.
We've had this discussion. A college save % isn't really going to impress me to the point of being sold. I'm neither writing him off nor saying don't call him in, but he's going to have to be better in MLS for me to be sold. There's lots of guys I'm not sold on. The good news for Roman Celentano is that no one cares about my opinion.
But you're impressed with Brady's based on MLS Next Pro & USL League One. He didn't back it up w/ being a solid shot-stopper in MLS already then too. Instead it's been disappointing with the US u-20's thus far. That's his support sample. Generally shot-stopping is one of the most translatable skills because you're typically 1 v. 1 and there's not dramatic differences in basic shooting abilities of competent footballers. So it's highly likely they both prove pluses in the department in the end. The only disadvantage for Celentano relative to the other two is a few years of age. But if he's posting a save % of 91 at 19 in college, he probably would have already been a decent shot-stopper by then in MLS, like Slonina was at 17-18.
I didn't say I was sold on Slonina or Brady, either. But I am impressed with the saves that each can make, and from when I've watched them, I think their errors are things that can be improved upon. They both have big highs but are erratic, and I suspect a lot of that is correctable. But I don't think either is someone I'm sold upon in terms of current performance. Just higher upside. Maybe I am wrong. Celentano isn't old, either, and no one was really talking about Matt Turner at this point yet.
Except for ESPN, of course. If seriously, Brady's foot skills are so poor that for the next 2-3 years he is barely playable even for a garbage team like Fire. Otherwise he is very talented, so I can see how one of the top clubs buys him as a project, but as of now he can't play on the MNT. Celentano is a well rounded keeper that doesn't make major mistakes either, and I don't know which part of his game might make him worse than Steffen. Haven't seen enough of Callender.
One important justification for calling up younger American MLS keepers (and really all positions in general) is simply getting them caps, giving them better exposure and most importantly boosting their chances of a transfer to a higher level abroad. Over the next 2 years we should be calling up all sorts of kids, getting them caps and accelerating their paths to premier European clubs hopefully by 2025. Consider a top tier young MLSer, high upside but not national team ready. If the national team ignores them until they are ready, they may not get that big move abroad to a higher level because players without caps are less attractive to Euro clubs. Getting them caps early in the cycle can get them on the right radars, better work permit eligibility, and hopefully to a good Euro clubs by 2024-5 that can accelerate their progress in time for 2026. The more players we can boost, the better the pool will be, and the national team has a huge role in that process. We should expect to see a bunch of surprising MLS call-ups early in the cycle and of course, some of them will fade out of the picture quickly, but we can expect a couple of contributors to come from this path in time for '26 and beyond.
While that can't be overlooked, if we limit ourselves to a "core" it's very likely we will ultimately exclude better players. A lot can happen in four years, and many of our core players, as ws clearly demonstrated in this cycle, will not be available at all times. 2025 will be the time for developing cohesion, 2023-4 should be for building the pool of players to select for that cohesive unit.
I like Celentano, Slonina, etc.....................and they'll get opportunities at the start of the cycle. But they have to EARN movement up the depth chart. Slonina was an average keeper in MLS. Average. For his age, he was great. Probably the best year ever for a teenage goalkeeper in MLS. But what does that mean? Folks are PROJECTING further advancement. It might happen and it might not. I'm certainly in favor of continuing to provide him with growth opportunities, including the Gold C up this summer. But he could easily get stuck down a depth chart in Europe like Ethan Horvath did for years. Seeing as we don't know the coaching situation, its hard to know what'll happen. If Berhalter remains, then the depth chart at the start of the cycle remains. It'll be Turner, Horvath, JOhnson, etc. If there's a new USMNT coach, then we start with a clean slate. By the way, people act like Sean Johnson is 39 years old. He's 33, and can certainly be in the competition for much of this cycle.
I'm very high with this kid, Kochen from Barcelona B team. He is still only 16 and his game is very mature for his age. I would fast track him, he is a triple nationality, next year he may be quadruple (USA, Venezuela, Peru, Spain). He is currently our starting GK for our U17 national team.
I am still a Horvath believer. Hope isn’t “pasteurized,” even though I see the logic of that for Johnson and Guzan. I am also open to Steffen earning his way back in, but he would have to be choke free through many non-friendlies before I’d consider him to start again. I would give the benefit of the doubt to younger guys over Steffen, who seems too mentally fragile to me.
My general sense from past experience is that this only really works for keepers that are clearly part of the USMNT's first team roster, based on volume of caps and the importance of the games they've played in. Howard had 9 caps prior to his move to Man United, several of them coming as a starter in the 2003 Confederations Cup. Guzan had 8 caps prior to his move to Aston Villa, at least one of them coming in the 2007 Copa America. Both of them qualified for a work permit on appeal, with at least Howard (and probably Guzan) making the argument that they would have been the number 1 GK for the US if they hadn't been behind multiple Premier League starting goalkeepers on the depth chart. Even Steffen had to apply for an exception on appeal when he moved to Man City, and he was clearly the US #1 already at that point, with twice as many caps as Howard or Guzan had, many of them coming in the Gold Cup. (I don't actually remember if he qualified, or if that's why he had to go on loan to Germany first.) The UK's work permit rules are a little more lax now, but friendly appearances generally don't count toward the auto-qualification cap total, and one or two of them likely won't be enough to make a case on appeal either. Work permit aside, the keepers we've given only a couple caps to here and there in friendlies never really used that as a springboard to a much higher level. (Here are a few names of keepers who have earned limited caps in winter camp friendlies over the past couple decades: Walker, Busch, Cannon, Hartman, Reis, Perkins, Hamid, Bingham, Robles, plus Rimando and Johnson initially, before they became a much more regular part of the pool much later in their careers.)