I imagine that even if we win the Gold Cup, dominate qualifying, and win all our Nations League games next year there's no chance that we could make it to Pot 1 correct? Which with Qatar as host requires us to get to number 7 in the FIFA rankings.
It would be very difficult. The one thing we have in our advantage is we have more games than UEFA when it comes to WCQ. I believe most teams in Europe have 6 or 7 more qualification games (with the potential for two playoff games if they finish runners up).
We must also consider that South America still has a ton of qualifying games to play. It may be difficult to make up ground on Uruguay if they do well in qualifying, given the quality of their opponents. Same with Colombia. We would also need to leapfrog Mexico, which is unlikely if we have similar results to them from here on out (a reasonable scenario).
Up to 13th now. An improbable win vs Mexico bumps us up to 10th I believe. True. Uruguay and Colombia have opportunities for a lot of points compared with UEFA teams. But, their qualification is not as guaranteed as say, Denmark or Italy given how tough CONMEBOL is. Root for Ecuador and Paraguay to wreck havoc.
Incredible, Pot 2 is looking really manageable if we don't screw up qualifying. I just didn't think we'd be able to climb to 15 or 16 let alone 13.
That's why these knockout wins in the GC were important. Anyway, let's take a look at some of the surrounding teams around the Pot 2 threshold: Sweden (17): They are second in their group to Spain, having played one game fewer. They also have Greece, Kosovo, and Georgia in their group, so not much opportunities for points unless they pick up an upset against La Roja. I think Spain finishes 1st in that group ultimately, leaving Sweden in a four team playoff where only one makes the WC. Switzerland (14): They are second in their group to Italy. Again, they don't have strong teams in their group other than Italy, it's Northern Ireland, Bulgaria, and Lithuania. Same situation as Sweden, they would have to go through a four team playoff to make it to the finals. Germany (15): They are third in their group to the powerhouse known as Armenia after their inexplicable home loss to North Macedonia. I still think they will finish first only because the rest of the group are average at best and will just take points off of each other. But man, another weird result and they find themselves in jeopardy. This time around, UEFA qualification for the 2nd place finishers is much trickier than in the past. Whereas a two legged tie between two teams usually favored the better team, the best team in a group of four would have to win two single-elimination matches to make it to the World Cup. As always, root for chaos.
Here's a sort of realistic look at what the pots might look at once qualifying is over (caveat: I took some liberties, such as Chile not making it, CONCACAF getting four teams, etc). Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, England, Italy, Argentina, Spain Pot 2: Portugal, Mexico, Denmark, Netherlands, Uruguay, USA, Colombia, Germany (See how important it is to get into Pot 2? Those are some tough teams...) Pot 3: Croatia, Senegal, Japan, Ukraine, Iran, Algeria, Czech Republic, Serbia Pot 4: Australia, Korea Republic, Nigeria, Ecuador, Cameroon, Ghana, Honduras, Canada Simulated Group Draw: A: Qatar, Portugal, Algeria, Ecuador B: France, Mexico, Japan, Cameroon C: Brazil, Germany, Croatia, Honduras D: Italy, Uruguay, Ukraine, Australia E: Spain, USA, Czech Republic, Korea Republic F: England, Denmark, Senegal, Canada G: Belgium, Colombia, Serbia, Nigeria H: Argentina, Netherlands, Iran, Ghana.
God damn the World Cup is a hard tournament. I don't feel comfortable in any of those groups! There's probably an argument to be made that whoever gets Qatar as the Pot 1 team has the easiest go of it, but they proved last night they're a surprisingly skillful and sturdy team. Would love to see this young Canada team in it too
http://football-ranking.com/ranks 9 (↑11) USA 1,647.24 (+91.82) Prev 20 1,555 10 (↑1) Mexico 1,645.70 (+16.14) Prev 11 1,630 ‼️FINAL FIFA RANKINGS UPDATE‼️ pic.twitter.com/MJUjk7wVeK— natfan9.bsky.social (@NatFan9) August 2, 2021 Pot 2? Pot 1??
Pot 2 is definitely a possibility. I think finishing top 17 is good enough, as traditionally a few of the teams above that spot shockingly fail to qualify every cycle. (Looking at you Switzerland and Uruguay.)
Sitting at 9th one has to imagine Pot 1 is within reach. Seems absurd to imagine, but I assume mathematical projections would support the possibility... or even likelihood, should we perform peerlessly in qualifiers and any of the nations ahead of us miss out on qualification. Perhaps someone with more knowledge and time can predict (or has already predicted) our chances for reaching Pot 1 status. As I write this, a healthy dose of doubt creeps in as I realize that Pot 1 is really the Top 7 teams, as Qatar is included as the 8th. Not only does that substantially lower our chances at reaching Pot 1, it makes remaining in Pot 2 all the more competitive because we’d have to hover at or near the Top 15 teams... maybe a little lower considering one or more of those 15 (probably Euro teams) won’t qualify. Just brainstorming here but yes we’ve landed ourselves in an enviable position here for WC seeding!
That's why this summer was best possible scenario. We won our NL, gave the 1st team some rest, won GC, moved up the rankings, and identified 3 or 4 players who could provide instant impact in qualifying.
🇮🇹 European champions climb 🧗♂️🇦🇷 Copa America conquerors on the up 📈🇺🇸 Concacaf kings return to the top 10 ⬆️🌍 #FIFARanking rewards all round for the various continental champions 🥇 📊👉 https://t.co/nDySrzLYTk pic.twitter.com/uY9rZEdrBW— FIFA (@FIFAcom) August 12, 2021 Lletget and Arriola, FIFA stars
#USMNT climbs to No. 10 in FIFA rankings, one spot behind Mexico despite beating them in two finals this summer. The ranking has big implications when it comes to GBE qualification for Americans to play in England. Now just need 30% of USMNT minutes to auto qualify. https://t.co/ommBUkwcNS— Paul Tenorio (@PaulTenorio) August 12, 2021 Here’s the GBE chart that shows how a Top 10 ranking differs from the 11-20 column where #USMNT players previously ranked. USMNT auto qualifies where they previously would have received 10 points. One point closer with 20% of minutes. pic.twitter.com/g9tPZdv4Km— Paul Tenorio (@PaulTenorio) August 12, 2021 Sorry this should say 30% of #USMNT *appearances* not minutes— Paul Tenorio (@PaulTenorio) August 12, 2021
I found the 27 page GBE document. Let's say a player has played 1-9% percent of minutes and gets 8 points. 15 points are required. MLS is in Band 4, which gives 6 points for 90-100% percent of domestic minutes, 5 points for 80-89%, and down to 1 point for 40-49%. MLS in Band 4, and playing in a Band 4 league is worth 6 points. 15 points are required, so a player from MLS would only need 10%.
Mexico #9 after losing to us twice in the summer in major tournaments is kinda nuts. Otoh, ELO agrees, having us 17th and Mexico 15th. I guess it just tells you how much damage 2017-2019 did to us, it took a ton to dig our way out of that hole and we're still digging. Hopefully we can grab the qualifying crown and that's enough. I don't see us in Pot 1, but it's technically possible which is crazy to think about.
Mexico didn't lose any ranking points for their two losses to the US since they were in The knockout stages of tournaments.
I get from first view but the us went from 20th to 10th in one summer which is pretty monumental. Personally I don't like the part where you don't lose points (for many reasons) but I understand why they did it. But by the 2026 cycle the negatives will start to show their ugly impact. Anyway I did the math rerunning the rankings from 2018 using every game without the knockout benefit and the US would be 9th and Mexico 12th.
It sounds like almost everybody in the USMNT pool right now is eligible for a UK work permit this summer, due in large part to the new rankings. A lot of players may never get a better opportunity to move.