http://www.unitedmania.com/back-to-...ust-foreshadows-potential-trouble-ahead-11367 My look at United's last two craptastic matches and dissecting United's brutal remaining fixtures in August.
I won't panic yet. Salt Lake and Houston away are always tough. A win against Colorado this week be a big bounce back match and they look vulnerable right now.
It's also a difficult match in that it's the most winnable MLS match this month. I think the odds are slim that we beat the Galaxy, particularly if we don't beat Colorado at home. It's not like Colorado is bad though. They have 30 points in a more difficult conference with the same goals for and slightly worse goal against. Looking at standings, the P (points) for each conference (C) [W (West) E (East)] looks like: P C 41 W 39 W 39 E 37 E 36 W 34 W 32 W 32 E 30 W 30 W
I refuse to panic since I figured DC was going to have a shitty stretch right about now anyway due to schedule difficulty. The wild card is that Johnson hasn't had his semi-annual mental meltdown yet and that could screw things up.
Talk about a brutal travel schedule. You're telling me DC has to travel all the way back to July to play Red Bulls?! xD
Apparently you're not on Twitter... haha. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ed-fan-im-not-here-to-please-your-town-buddy/
Or didn't watch the Salt Lake match. lol http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ends-d-c-uniteds-eddie-johnson-for-2-matches/
Well, seems like he is well on his way to being the cancer everyone feared he would be. So I'm not panicking, but I'm preparing myself to accept this as the high water mark of the season unfortunately.
Have to say I thought we would be in much worse position going into the heat of August with so many 30 somethings on the team. But so far picking up all those veterans has paid off. Will have to see if I still feel that way after August. I was expecting us to be in a world of hurt this month.
Honestly, at least 7 points were kind of just gifts. I think it's reasonable for us to be at 30, but 37 is just luck. Has it run out?
Off the top of my head, when several of our opponents went full moron and got red cards unnecessarily. It's been a long time [edit: we never have had this happen] since we have benefited from 6:1 red card ratios (the Dallas game stands out in particular as a game we stood to lose badly but then out of nowhere a red card at 10 mins). Arnaud's goal against NY was kind of an anomaly as well, but we'll take it. Our draw against Columbus was fortunate to be a draw as well. For reference, we had 1 red card for our opponents in all of 2013; 2 red cards for our opponents across all of 2012; 1 red card for our opponents in all of 2011, and 2 red cards against our opponents in 2010. So you have to combine all red cards for opponents back through nearly 2010 to get the number of red cards our opponents have earned in 22 games against us this season (~120 games to get 5 red cards across 4+ years vs. 22 games to get 5 red cards this season). We've also earned points in every game we've gotten a red card against our opponents.
You seem to live in a subjective reality where wins over good teams are worth more than wins over poor teams. Where wins over teams that have injuries or that have red cards or that accidentally tied their shoelaces together are only worth 2 points. Objectively, that just isn't how it works.
Because wins aren't equal? You can math it out and see that teams in the MLS Cup finals always compete strongly against the best clubs during the regular season. Only in the USOC do teams dial it in and make it to the finals. Even teams in the MLS Cup Semis are among the top teams in 'strength of schedule points earned.' The same math that says we're in the high 90% odds of making the playoffs come to that conclusion. In the end what I said wasn't insulting. Being at 30 points would put us firmly in playoff contention all the same. Just like luck didn't go our way many times in 2013 resulting in silly lost points, we have gained a few points this season from our opponents being stupid.
That's an interesting metric. But it's sort of using a chicken and egg situation. Do teams get red cards because they're frustrated at playing from behind against a good team? I would say in some red card cases, yes. So then I would expect that we would see a favorable red card ration if looking at MLS champions year after year. One could also argue as Shammy does, that it was the red cards that helped these teams to win championships. In reality both are true. However I think the most important point is that good teams - really good teams - frustrate opponents. And when you do that, good things happen. We were able to do that for a few games this summer, but that's the first time in years.
Good points and as an aside, KC had 12 red carded opponents in 2013 and RSL only 3, but RSL also had 4 red cards of their own.
The beauty of the game, for me, is that while math can be a powerful analytical tool, it's not the essence of the thing. The truth is not all wins are equal, and while it can be fun to try to ascertain how unequal they may be, let's also remember not all losses are equal, and obviously not every part of the game can be broken down rigorously. Sometimes, shit happens.
I don't think 2 losses on the road foreshadows anything honestly. We all knew we'd come back down to earth in August. To stave off a potential crisis now more than ever we have to make the most of our home games. And we need to get something ... anything from the next 2 game road trip.
Perfect example is United's 3-0 win over TFC. at one point in the match, United were being out shot 12-2 and United was up 2-0. That second goal broke TFC's spirit and United tagged on another for good measure. this game was all TFC until that 2nd goal and it switched over. The match against Red Bull at home United had all hands on deck defending in numbers after an early goal and somehow managed to win. In essence, metrics are nice and they do tell a good deal about how a team is or isn't doing at any given point during a match/season. However, the bottom line is the bottom line - points earned, regardless of how they come about. The US by all rights of the "style of play" should not have advanced out of their group, but they did. Ghana was arguably the most athletic and dangerous team in the group and they ended up bottom of the group - however, they were the ONLY side in the tournament not to lose to Germany. it's a funny old game.
Yea, but you can build a further narrative that the USMNT advanced by largely weak performances and therefore the odds decreased as quality of competition improved. In the end, everyone can respect that they want their team to win as many quality matches as possible against the best opponents possible. That's what being a champion is and that's what we always expect from the clubs we support. Whether that means we can predict hitting some marker of success (making playoffs, making the Cup etc.) or not is secondary to wanting to be the best team and showing it regularly. No one ever argues that they are just happy their team can beat 'ok' or 'bad teams' most of the time, letting go those tougher matches. It takes more (tm)!