United 2026 FIFA WCQ General Topic [R]

Here are probabilities based on the odds:

Suriname win: 54.6 percent
Draw: 25.9 percent
El Salvador win: 19.5 percent

Bermuda win: 8.9 percent
Draw: 17.9 percent
Curacao win: 73.2 percent

Trinidad and Tobago win: 27.3 percent
Draw: 27.3 percent
Jamaica win: 45.3 percent.
It adds up to 99.9 percent because of rounding. All of the decimals come from 1/3.

Guatemala win: 23.2 percent
Draw: 27.3 percent
Panama win: 49.4 percent
It adds up to 99.9 percent because of rounding. All of the decimals are repeating 3s starting from the second decimals place.

Haiti win: 28 percent
Draw: 28 percent
Costa Rica win: 44 percent
All of the probabilities are whole percents.

Nicaragua win: 14.4 percent
Draw: 22.8 percent
Honduras win: 62.8 percent

 

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments...s/concacaf-qualifying-set-for-dramatic-finish is titled "Concacaf qualifying set for dramatic finish."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...-salvador-continue-chase-for-world-cup-dream/ is titled "Suriname and El Salvador continue chase for World Cup dream."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...rld-cup-berth-in-trip-to-trinidad-and-tobago/ is titled "Jamaica eyes World Cup berth in trip to Trinidad and Tobago."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...duras-eyes-world-cup-berth-against-nicaragua/ is titled "Honduras eyes World Cup berth against Nicaragua."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/news/haiti-meets-costa-rica-in-pivotal-matchup/ is titled "Haiti meets Costa Rica in pivotal matchup."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...els-to-bermuda-with-world-cup-hopes-at-stake/ is titled "Curaçao travels to Bermuda with World Cup hopes at stake."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...emala-hosts-panama-in-crucial-group-a-battle/ is titled "Guatemala hosts Panama in crucial Group A battle."

 

If you live in the USA and pay for Paramount Plus, you can watch Suriname vs. El Salvador at https://www.paramountplus.com/live-tv/stream/more-soccer/7f12e808-68da-4085-87e6-fb822785d355/

 

Suriname 4-0 El Salvador

The goals were by Tjarron Chery on a penalty kick in the 44th, Richonell Margaret in the 74th and 76th, and Dhoraso Klas in the 83rd.

Suriname will lead the group after today unless Panama wins by at least 5 at Guatemala, or wins by 4 and wins a later tiebreaker. If Guatemala loses, they will be unable to win the group, and they will need a win and help on Matchday 6 to qualify for the first time.

If you live in the USA and pay for Paramount Plus, you can watch:

Bermuda vs. Curacao: https://www.paramountplus.com/live-tv/stream/more-soccer/ca9da26a-f8dd-4dd4-9c79-c5834fe631c1/

Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica: https://www.paramountplus.com/live-tv/stream/more-soccer/19f925c0-5b65-449c-9c38-7fb86d370afc/

 

Suriname 4-0 El Salvador

Bermuda 0-7 Curacao

Trinidad and Tobago 1-1 Jamaica

El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago are eliminated. By winning and having Jamaica not win, Curacao qualifies for the first time with a win or draw at Jamaica, and Jamaica qualifies with a win.

The last three games are in the first half, and it is surprisingly the only team that scored, as Nicaragua leads 1-0 hosting Honduras. To survive, Nicaragua must win and have Haiti vs. Costa Rica in Curacao be a draw.

 

Halftime scores:

Guatemala 0-2 Panama
Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica (in Curacao)
Nicaragua 1-0 Honduras

If games finish that way, Guatemala and Nicaragua will be eliminated, and Concacaf will have seven teams left.

 

Guatemala scored in the 69th and 72nd to make it 2-2, and while I was typing, Panama scored in the 79th to retake the lead. Guatemala will be eliminated if they lose.

Nicaragua just scored in the 82nd to lead 2-0 hosting Honduras. If scores stay the same, Honduras will be in first, but one more goal allowed by Honduras or scored by Haiti would tie goal differentiala dn move Haiti up to first on goals scored.

 

Guatemala 2-3 Panama
Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica (in Curacao)
Nicaragua 2-0 Honduras

Guatemala and Nicaragua join El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago from earlier today and Bermuda from last month as eliminated teams. Seven teams are left. Here are the standings with one game left:

Group A:
Suriname: 9 points, +5
Panama: 9 points, +2
Guatemala: 5 points, -1, eliminated
El Salvador: 3 points, -6, eliminated

Guatemala hosts Suriname, and Panama hosts El Salvador.

Group B:
Curacao: 11 points, +10
Jamaica: 10 points, +8
Trinidad and Tobago: 6 points, +1, eliminated
Bermuda: 0 points, -19, eliminated

Jamaica hosts Curacao. In the only game in any group that is meaningless for both teams, Trinidad and Tobago hosts Bermuda. Curacao qualifies with a win or draw, and Jamaica qualifies with a win. Curacao and likely Jamaica would be one of the best two second place teams. Curacao can only be eliminated if they lose; Suriname, Panama, Honduras, and Haiti all win; Honduras makes up 7 goal differential; and Haiti makes up 9 goal differential.

Group C:
Honduras: 8 points, +3
Haiti: 8 points, +1
Costa Rica: 6 points, +2
Nicaragua: 4 points, -6, eliminated

Costa Rica hosts Honduras, and Haiti plays Nicaragua in Curacao. Honduras qualifies with a win and Haiti not winning, winning without making up the goal differential, or a draw and a Haiti loss or draw. Haiti qualifies with a win and Honduras win with Haiti making up the goal differential, or a Honduras loss or draw. If Haiti draws and Honduras loses, Haiti will pass Honduras, but in that case Costa Rica will win the group. Costa Rica needs a win and a Haiti loss or draw. If Haiti and Costa Rica win, Costa Rica goes to the Playoffs if Panama loses, or Suriname loses and Costa Rica makes up goal differential on Suriname.

Here are highlights from today's first three games:






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbxhEU6orj8

 

Guatemala dominated statistics in their loss hosting Panama. Guatemala had more expected goals (xG) 2.71 to 0.42, 63 percent of possession, more shots 24 to 8, more shots on target 8 to 4, more big chances 4 to 0, more corner kicks 9 to 2, more expected goals on target 2.59 to 1.14, more shots inside the box 11 to 5, more touches in opposition box 27 to 9, more completed passes 380 to 206, more completed passes in the final third 96 to 50, and more crosses completed 6 to 1.

The scorers were Panama's Cecilio Waterman in the 30th and 44th, Guatemala's Arquimides Ordonez in the 69th, Guatemala's Rudy Munoz in the 72nd, and Panama's Jose Fajardo in the 78th.

Haiti's goal was scored by Frantzdy Pierrot in the 44th.

Nicaragua's goals were by Bancy Hernandez in the 12th, and Jaime Moreno Ciorciari in the 82nd.

Suriname's goals were by Tjarron Chery on a penalty kick in the 44th, Richonell Margaret in the 74th and 76th, and Dhoraso Klas in the 83rd.

Jamaica's goal was scored by Renaldo Cephas in the 53rd, and Trinidad and Tobago's goal was scored in Kevin Molino in the 85th.

Curacao's goals were scored by Leandro Bacuna on a penalty kick in the 6th, Juninho Bacuna in the 32nd, Jordi Paulina on a penalty kick in the 48th, Sontje Hansen in the 59th, Paulina in the 63rd, Ar'Jany Martha in the 82nd, and Roshon van Eijma in the 90+2nd.

Three games had goals in the 44th.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...d-and-tobago-eliminated-in-draw-with-jamaica/ is titled "Trinidad and Tobago eliminated in draw with Jamaica."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...ts-bermuda-to-inch-closer-to-world-cup-berth/ is titled "Curaçao defeats Bermuda to inch closer to World Cup berth."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...er-to-world-cup-dream-el-salvador-eliminated/ is titled "Suriname inches closer to World Cup dream, El Salvador eliminated."

 

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...aiti-secures-crucial-victory-over-costa-rica/ is titled "Haiti secures crucial victory over Costa Rica."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...a-defeats-honduras-and-keeps-group-c-on-edge/ is titled "Nicaragua defeats Honduras and keeps Group C on edge."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...d-cup-hopes-to-stay-in-race-for-direct-berth/ is titled "Panama ends Guatemala’s World Cup hopes to stay in race for direct berth."

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments...cles/concacaf-qualifying-matchday-five-review is titled "Curaçao, Panama and Suriname win as Jamaica held."

Here are highlights from yesterday's last three games:






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLudluEP9WE

 

Here are short highlights from Concacaf:






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDgOiXsAMAc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crDIkIDge9A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zANylgPbRus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCWTAa6NPHo

For the second set, Concacaf only uploaded the first three games so far.

 

Here are the last short highlights from Concacaf:

 

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...os-for-final-matchday-of-concacaf-qualifiers/ is titled "World Cup clinching scenarios for final matchday of Concacaf Qualifiers."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...in-crucial-match-for-world-cup-qualification/ is titled "Costa Rica, Honduras meet in crucial match for World Cup qualification." On the previous matchday, Nicaragua defeated Honduras for the first time since March 12, 1965.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...t-to-end-world-cup-drought-against-nicaragua/ is titled "Haiti out to end World Cup drought against Nicaragua." On the previous matchday, Haiti defeated Costa Rica in a World Cup Qualifier for the first time, and Costa Rica's undefeated streak in World Cup Qualifiers ended at 15 games, including 11 wins.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...ursues-first-world-cup-in-visit-to-guatemala/ is titled "Suriname pursues first World Cup in visit to Guatemala." On the previous matchday, Suriname scored 4 goals against El Salvador for the first time since December 22, 1968.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...ts-el-salvador-with-world-cup-berth-in-sight/ is titled "Panama hosts El Salvador with World Cup berth in sight." On the previous matchday, Panama won at Guatemala for the first time.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...-meet-in-decisive-battle-for-world-cup-berth/ is titled "Jamaica and Curaçao meet in decisive battle for World Cup berth."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...tobago-bermuda-conclude-world-cup-qualifying/ is titled "Trinidad and Tobago, Bermuda conclude World Cup Qualifying."

Here are probabilities based on the odds:

Costa Rica win: 51.2 percent
Draw: 26.6 percent
Honduras win: 22.2 percent

Guatemala win: 26.5 percent
Draw: 27.2 percent
Suriname win: 46.3 percent

Haiti win: 74.7 percent
Draw: 16.4 percent
Nicaragua win: 9.0 percent
It adds up to 100.1 percent because of rounding.

Jamaica win: 46.3 percent
Draw: 28.0 percent
Curacao win: 25.7 percent

Panama win: 81.4 percent
Draw: 13.0 percent
El Salvador win: 5.6 percent

Trinidad and Tobago win: 89.4 percent
Draw: 8.0 percent
Bermuda win: 2.7 percent
It adds up to 100.1 percent because of rounding.

Unless there is a delay or extreme amount of stoppage time, within 24 hours the games will be over. Tomorrow has national team games for 18.5 continuous hours from 4:00 A.M. to 10:30 P.M. USA Eastern.

 

Haiti leads Nicaragua 1-0. Based on current scores, Haiti would qualify, Honduras would finish second, and Costa Rica would be eliminated. In a meaningless game, Trinidad and Tobago leads Bermuda 1-0. Games are in or near the 17th minute.

Edit: Panama scored to lead 1-0, so current scores would qualify them, and send Suriname to Playoffs. Honduras would be eliminated as the worst second place team. I wonder how tiny a percent chance of the group eliminating Costa Rica and Honduras there was before the group started.

I am listening to and watching some of Jamaica vs. Haiti. Teams have threatened without scoring.

 

Halftime scores and standings:

Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras
Guatemala 0-0 Suriname
Haiti 2-0 Nicaragua
Jamaica 0-0 Curacao
Panama 2-0 El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 Bermuda

All 5 goals were scored at home, or in Haiti's case at a neutral site. Here are the standings if games were over:

Panama: 12 points, +4
Suriname: 10 points, +5
Guatemala: 6 points, -1
El Salvador: 3 points, -8

Curacao: 12 points, +10
Jamaica: 11 points, +8
Trinidad and Tobago: 9 points, +2
Bermuda: 0 points, -20

Haiti: 11 points, +3
Honduras: 9 points, +3
Costa Rica: 7 points, +2
Nicaragua: 4 points, -8

Honduras would be the eliminated third place team. To qualify or make the Playoffs, they need at least one of:

Their tie becomes a win
Haiti's 2 goal lead becomes a draw or loss
Panama's 2 goal lead becomes a loss
Suriname's tie becomes a loss by at least 3 goals

 

Guatemala shockingly leads Suriname 3-0. If scores continue, Honduras would get the second Playoff spot with a goal differential 1 better than Suriname. Bermuda scored, and Trinidad and Tobago scored to go up 2-1. Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras, Haiti 2-0 Nicaragua, Jamaica 0-0 Curacao, and Panama 2-0 El Salvador have not had second half goals. Games are in or near the 70th minute.

Edit: Jamaica headed the ball off the crossbar, and the announcer said it was the second time they hit the woodwork in the second half. Curacao then kicked the ball in the goal, but the man was offside to keep it 0-0. The announcer said that because Suriname is down 3-0, Jamaica will make the Playoffs with a loss, so they should attack because defending and getting a draw does not help them more than a loss would.

 

Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras
Guatemala 3-1 Suriname
Haiti 2-0 Nicaragua
Jamaica 0-0 Curacao
Panama 3-0 El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago 2-1 Bermuda

There was a lot of late action. In the 87th, Jamaica hit the post, which was the third time they hit the woodwork in the second half. In the 89th, Jamaica had a player ejected for a second yellow. Jamaica's fans celebrated when they were given a penalty kick, but VAR took it away. Curacao is the least populated country ever to qualify, and Jamaica is going to the Playoffs.

Guatemala scored an own goal in the 90+3rd, and was worse for Honduras than for his team. Suriname's 9 points, 9 goals scored, and 6 goals allowed won the goals scored tiebreaker over Honduras, who had 9 points, 5 goals scored, and 2 goals allowed. It reminds me of when USA's Jonathan Bornstein scored in the 90+5th hosting Costa Rica on the last matchday on October 14, 2009. USA qualified, so not losing was not important to them, but his goal qualified Honduras. The announcer said that Honduras played like they were okay with a 0-0, which turned out not to work. It surprises me that they would not attack because when they planned before the game they would not have expected Suriname to lose. Panama is the only Central American team to qualify. Haiti qualified for the first time since 1974, and it will be the first World Cup with more than one Caribbean team. When the schedule was made, nobody would have expected Costa Rica vs. Honduras to end with both of them eliminated. I am not typing the standings, but they are at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_third_round

 

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments...icles/concacaf-qualifying-matchday-six-review is titled "Curaçao, Haiti and Panama punch World Cup tickets."

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/curacao-qualify is titled "Curaçao ride wave to inaugural World Cup berth."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...istoric-world-cup-berth-with-draw-in-jamaica/ is titled "Curaçao secures historic World Cup Berth with draw in Jamaica."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...duras-end-world-cup-dreams-in-scoreless-draw/ is titled "Costa Rica and Honduras end World Cup dreams in scoreless draw."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...alifying-with-win-suriname-heads-to-play-off/ is titled "Guatemala concludes World Cup Qualifying with win, Suriname heads to Play-Off."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...world-cup-berth-with-win-against-el-salvador/ is titled "Panama secures World Cup berth with win against El Salvador."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...d-cup-drought-with-victory-against-nicaragua/ is titled "Haiti ends 51-year World Cup drought with victory against Nicaragua."

I did not find an article from Concacaf about Trinidad and Tobago vs. Bermuda. During the game, Flash Score said Bermuda took a 2-1 lead, but then took the goal away. I read that the goal was disallowed for a foul. However, I just saw that the goal did count, and the game ended 2-2. That meant that Bermuda did not finish without a point.

Here are highlights that Concacaf posted as shorts from three of six games:





Here are short highlights from Concacaf:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47A0RmKfETs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbA49ZNh41g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5--NCiiGOg4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8kn00VtIEk

Here are long highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnUlYtXy3fA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3KB9x7TR4E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph3_cAnUTgw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYPuJc693eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjizhXGZm-A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnHldWCh0WE

Here are Spanish highlights from four of six games:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPCQC_e3vqo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QzX8lL5GMA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHBJ08Dby8Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xt2Y-gX5GTQ

 

DR Congo and Iraq have the best FIFA Rankings of the Interconfederational Playoff teams, so the got byes. One of Jamaica or Suriname will start against Bolivia, and the other one will start against New Caledonia. If Jamaica plays New Caledonia, the game will have two islands. Suriname is in the Caribbean Football Union (CFU), but is not an island. If they advance, one of Jamaica or Suriname will play DR Congo, and the other one will play Iraq. DR Congo, Iraq, and New Caledonia have to fly over an ocean to get to the games in Mexico; Jamaica has the shortest distance; and Suriname and Bolivia are in between. The fact that Jamaica and Suriname must be in different paths is good for them and bad for Bolivia because it guarantees that Bolivia will not start with an easy game against New Caledonia.

Edit: Here are more short highlights from Concacaf:

 

To qualify, Jamaica must beat New Caledonia and DR Congo; and Suriname must beat Bolivia and Iraq.

 

Round 3 had 89 goals, which was 1.24 per team per game.