PIERRE LEBRUN December 3, 2004 NEW YORK (CP) - The NHL Players' Association is working on a proposal that will see players give up serious concessions in a bid to salvage the season. But what the union tables to the NHL next Thursday will definitely not contain a fixed link between player costs and league revenues - a salary cap. One wonders if NHLPA executive director Bob Goodenow mentioned that when he sat down to lunch with commissioner Gary Bettman on Friday. The union offer is expected to feature major givebacks in other areas, but the key will be the payroll tax. The union's offer Sept. 9 had a tax that charged 20 cents on the dollar for payrolls over $40 million US, which the league labelled as "window dressing." Money generated by the tax would then be shared among the teams. http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news?slug=cp-nhl_lockout&prov=cp&type=lgns A luxury tax? this crap doesn't even work in baseball and they make money. I find it sad just how little the players realize what a bottomless pit their product is and what serious reforms it needs to survive.
They are meeting in Toronto next week, but as a practical matter, I think the season is toast. The league allowed arenas to open dates 45 days in advance, so if, by some miracle, a deal was sealed at the meeting next Thursday, the earliest that the league would have secured arena dates is in the last week or two of January. So you have to redo a schedule, resecure arena dates, sign free agents, call players back from Europe, have a breif training camp and then you have maybe a 2 month, 30 game season? Not worth it. This season is a write-off.
If, somehow, they had an agreement signed and done by a week from today, the league could have a season up and running by the middle of January. If they play through the end of April (about 105 days), teams could play a 50-game schedule with full playoffs. Where you'd see poor quality hockey would be the following season, 80 games, after a shortened offseason. That would be tough. It's not ideal, but teams certainly wouldn't have time to mess around in the regular season, so you'd see a lot more competitive games. The players would come back from Europe in a heartbeat. Some of the players over there are learning how the "other half" lives, riding on busses for 7 hours to games and carrying their own bags and equipment and the like. You can be sure they'd like to come back here to their coddled existence as soon as possible. And the middle of January would just about take care of the 45-day window. The scheduling side of it can be done, they did it in '94 (I think it was '94, '95 maybe?). At the very least, they have experience in this whole deal. But ... I don't think they're going to get a deal done, so it's all wishful thinking.
45 days from today would be January 18th. 45 days from December 9, when the meeting is scheduled is January 23rd. I think you're looking at something more like a week after the meeting before any sort of deal would be announced. For argument's sake, we'll say a deal is struck on December 15. That puts the 45 day window at January 29th. If they can't be back playing before mid-January, I'm not sure it's worth it. I just think there are too many variables. Players have been in Europe for a good part of a season now, and you then want to throw them back into a different style of play with different teammates with probably something like 2 weeks to prepare. Doable, but I think you're going to see some god-awful games to start, and that's what the league doesn't need. This season is a loss, let the sides negotiate, or start the inevitable court fights, and then, hopefully come back in October, and salvage what's left of the fan base. Meanwhile, whoever holds the TV rights next season, NBC, ESPN or whoever, they need to decide weather or not to just write off losses, or throw some AHL or college hockey out there, or else there may be no audience come whenever next season starts. Canada is probably a secure market, but in the US, the NHL does need to take point on this. If they come back, and the US TV audience is 7 fans somewhere, that's ballgame.