First, a confession, I was wrong, I did not have Florida State at #1 going into the season, I had Stanford at #1. The system I use for pre-season predictions is based strictly on past seasons. I use the Balanced RPI, which is a modification of the NCAA RPI that does not have its problem of (1) large differences between teams' RPI ranks and their ranks as strength of schedule contributors to their opponents' ratings (there should be virtually no differences rather than the RPI's large differences), which results in (2) discrimination against strong conferences and in favor of other conferences and (2) discrimination against stronger regions and in favor of weaker regions, and (3) discrimination against regions with high parity and in favor of regions with low parity. Then, I rank teams based on their Balanced RPI ranks over the last 7 seasons because that number of seasons produces the best match with teams' ranks the next year. The theory behind this is that it is the program that is the primary driver of where schools will end up, not the individual players who come and go fro year to year. Of course, it is important not to take that perspective to an extreme, as player changes matter. However, they do not matter as much as most people think. An interesting test of this is predictions of conference standings. Each year, the coaches in each conference do pre-season rankings of their conference's teams, applying everything they know about each other to their rankings. Not this year, but in prior years, Chris Henderson also has done rankings of teams within conferences, using a number of metrics including players who have left and new players coming in (including things such as the production lost due to players leaving). I also use my history-based system to predict rankings within the conferences. Typically, the coaches and CH, with their detailed knowledge, very slightly outperform my system. In other words, the comings and goings from year-to-year make a difference, but nowhere near the difference you might expect. From a statistics perspective, one might say that teams vary from year to year, but the variation is around a mean. And, based on my work with the stats over the years, the variation is in a relatively narrow range at the top and bottom of the rankings, with a much broader range in the middle of the rankings.
Looking forward to seeing the game this evening. If the Heels play as they did last Friday with Duke, they will surely be the champions. On the other hand, this season Wake Forest has shown that they can compete with anyone on a given day and this could be a very tense game. Another factor that may or may not be relevant is that former Heels Emily Murphy and Emily Colton are a key part of the Demon Deacons success this year, and surely most of the UNC players know and like them-- which may modify the play. (We fans like them too!) Go Heels!
UNC wins 3-0 Not only is this a championship team but it’s also a clean sweep of the girls who left UNC. Herr at Penn State, Oliaro at Duke, and now Colton/Murphy at Wake.
Is the Long Reign of UNC Women's Soccer Over? https://www.theassemblync.com/cultu...occer-anson-dorrance-investigation-transfers/
Special shout out to Aven Alvarez. She graduated a year early and played lights out the last few games. Her defense the last two games against very difficult wingers was tremendous.
And what can you say about Olivia? Some games she just seemed out of control and became an absolute dominant force in the college cup. Well done, and congrats!
Congrats to North Carolina on another national championship. I’m not familiar with the details of their early history, but this has to be the most unexpected national championship, considering the off-season turmoil. Damon N should have to be made the head coach, right?
Damon Nahas was named head coach by Bubba Cunningham this morning, and he told the team after the game. It's official, just kind of lost in all the celebration. 1866318913652371735 is not a valid tweet id
That ... was arguably one of UNC's worst performances of the season. hah. Maybe not as bad as the non con game vs Duke, but certainly up there in the top 5. as much as I can and will give credit for WFU for some of the mental lapses and poor touches / passes we saw from UNC tonight, it didn't feel like the bulk of it was because of anything the Demon Deacons were doing. UNC just struggled with their touches and was really reacting to the game for most of the 90 minutes. This was going to be one of those games where the defense was going to have to step up, and boy did it ever. It's already been mentioned but Aven Alvarez, committed early and relied upon heavily down the stretch, had an absolute whale of a game. In a game where Trinity Armstrong was good but still struggled, including a very uncharacteristic touch on the endline that gave up a corner ... Aven Alverez my goodness. I hope she has all her dinners for the rest of the school year taken care of by her teammates. Good strutcure from Wake, arguably the best looking attempt by any team this year to shut down the multi-faceted way that UNC can attack. They shut down Maddie Dahlien for the most part, they shut down Kate Faasse over the top for the most part, and they shut down Olivia Thomas in the combinations through the middle for the most part. Thomas still managed to have a few good moments with her back to goal, but none of those players carried the torch for UNC in a way that we saw one of them manage for ... well pretty much every game this year. That *was* the best defensive alignment of any opposition UNC has faced this year. Again I don't think it was the reason why UNC looked so out of sorts for most of the game, but it still would have stifled pretty much everything and made the final third and the 18 a slog to break down. Instead, it was a FK, and what a wonderful strike it was. I think enough people around the WoSo universe are giving Olivia the deserved praise she has earned for her performance in the College Cup. The way Duke and WFU set up defensively she was going to have to be the one who had the big game, and she stepped up in both. Her back to goal performance really came to a head in both games, and what more can possibly said about that goal? I thought Aria Nagai had a solid second half, especially after UNC went up. She really became a destroyer in midfield and was busting her ass. Gaetino had a tough game after being phenomenal in the rest of the NCAA tournament. She should have probably finished the game with a yellow, but not in the way she earned it. That was a pretty harsh yellow card early on, and I think Gaetino maybe sensed it and didn't feel compelled to mind her challenges. I do wonder if Danielle Chesky had a chance to reflect on the yellow she gave in the first half and extended some leniency after. It's not that I think that Gaetino committed any yellow card offenses on their own, but she had at least 3 or 4 fouls and persistent infringement was becoming a concern. I do think UNC dodged a bullet there. Chesky in general was ... well, Chesky. Nobody was happy about her performance in this game. Which in a weird way means she did a good job I guess? I do think she made several phantom decisions, incling Gaetino and Faasse's yellows. Where Gaetino's yellow was soft but you understood it, Faasse's yellow was hot garbage. You can tolerate missed calls, but when officials have started making up fouls and giving yellow cards for no good reason ... the game never was out of control, nobody was really ever out of control, and the challenges were not bad challenges that needed to be tamped down. She was a little too free with the card tonight in a game that didn't need it, especially late against WF players. That being said, Emily Murphy could have picked up a yellow in several different occasions, including the sequence in which she actually earned her yellow. A tactical foul from behind that would have been a yellow if not for advantage, and then she lunged in from behind right after her tactical foul didn't work and took down Alvarez (I think) hard. If not for the rule that tactical fouls get downgraded on advantage, that would have been a bang bang double yellow. There's a lot of time to rewind, re-watch, and savor the moment. I'm sure there's a lot more than can and should be said. This team has done it! When there's extensive conversation that was distracting from discussing this team in the middle of NCAA Tournament Run, yes ... but the run is over it's no long a hot seat conversation even if it hadn't already been announced, it was safe to say that it was more likely Bubba Cunningham was going to be fired if he decided not to remove the interim tag.
Usually i enjoy your posts branski, but i dont think it was necessary to say this was the "worst performance" of the season" which i disagree with btw. Seems hyperbolic. Especially when they won in the end after all they've been through and all the criticisms from many on these boards. its their night, give them flowers, let them celebrate.
Lighten up, Babs! I think German4allies was making a joke. Enjoy the win! Nahas is a great coach and futbol may be the beautiful game, but winning a championship is not always pretty and then there's that other team. As Damon said, in a match like this it's often a question of grit and will.
y'all missed the "hah" the struggle made the win all the more sweeter in my opinion. Having a game where things don't go as well for you as they did in the semi's, but still finding a way to win ... and doing it in the National Championship game? I'm not lamenting how they played last night, I'm relishing how much more enjoyable it made the final whistle. Maybe I was being dramatic, but I wasn't being critical or a debbie downer. ... as for German4allies, well ... maybe this board has made me paranoid about posters spoiling the mood.
Where are the complaints about the officiating! No controversial corner kicks?? Oh wait, UNC has a terrific goalkeeper now so...... That game was pretty ugly to be honest. End to end slugfest for much of the time, esp after the goal. Great goal of course and was a clear foul. Super interesting that I think UNC made only 2 subs the entire game and one of those played only a few minutes. NOT like the old days for sure. Congrats to UNC and their fans for a great end to the season. First time in a long time I was rooting for them. - the one fan had a sign "where's dook?" that made the broadcast Respect for Robbie Church though. Went out pretty strong. AND they did the right thing with Nahas. Now we get to find out how much of the change was orchestrated by AD. I think a lot.
Do we know if there's going to be a celebration of some sort in Chapel Hill that fans can attend? Would love to see the trophy somewhere.
Any chance Olivia Thomas goes pro? Her back to goal play is better than many players strikers in the NWSL. I might be the only one but that shot is a play a keeper needs to make. She let her height keep her from seeing over her own wall and saw shot too late, then didn't have the explosiveness to get to the ball.
I think an under rated aspect of the shot is how much power Thomas put behind it... the keeper *did* look like she had the post covered and appeared to get a fingertip save on the ball, but the shot had so much power behind it that she's lucky it didn't dislocate her fingers. ... and at this point, in the current environment, not a single player going pro would surprise me.
I have been a fan of UNC women's soccer since its inception. I am so pleased that they are recovering from last year's debacle and have played better and better during this season, and like others are very pleased with the recent play of Olivia Thomas and certainly the efforts of others on the team. That said, a shout-out is deserving to the well coached Wake Forest team. (Former UNC players Emilys Murphy and Colton have a lot to do with their success this season and that's fine too.) As far as I can tell this match was about equal teams and that is certainly what WF showed especially in the first half. They'll be losing a bunch of talent for next year (I think that 19 players on their team are seniors or graduate students), but the certainly will be bringing a bunch of new players and should be a serious opponent next year.
Me too... I started watching them at Fetzer in 1981. I no longer live in the area, so I'm grateful we can see them on TV. Anyway, this was a very inspiring season and I appreciate your, Babs's, and others' commentary. So glad they decided to keep Nahas. So great to win another national championship... it brings back 21 other happy memories. I'm looking forward to next year.
Well said. Olivia Thomas was the difference last night, and not much else separated those two teams. It was a grind just like the regular season match. If anything I would have expected the Heels to outperform, given their incredible semi final against Duke and the additional players they had this time vs. the regular season matchup with WF. But Wake Forest proved to be every bit of a game competitor. Nahas and da Luz should be the obvious front runners for Coach of the Year, but I can also see Robbie Church getting in there for a fantastic final season as well. Nahas overcoming the off the field drama and cobbling together a championship caliber team is an accomplishment that will go down in Carolina lore. After the dust settled (well, did it ever really?), by the start of the season the Tar Heels had on paper one of the most talented rosters in the country and potential to be a contender if they could push through the chatter and uncertainty. The Wake Forest team on the other hand might be the last of its kind we'll see in this era of college soccer. A team comprised mostly of 4 year seniors that were not 4/5 star recruits and developed into a championship caliber squad. And I believe the announcers said they were the first team in NCAA WoSo history to make it to a Championship game after missing the NCAA tournament all together the year before and not being ranked in the preseason Top 25. They were also picked to finish 9th (!!) in the ACC to start the season. That's quite an exceptional achievement. All around a very fun and exciting year. And who knows, maybe we'll get an all Tobacco Road College Cup in the near future!