Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

But Ukraine was attacking refineries before this - before Trump was in office even. Neither the refinery's positions nor their internal functions were secret. And most Ukrainian drones are shot down, so aren't finding some secret path to the targets either.

 

The oil depot in Feodosia was hit again tonight. Russian sources say 20 drones were sent at it, so Ukraine really wants it gone. There is a really big fire going on right now.

Ukraine also attacked a hypermart in Donestk city, and they really wanted it blown up because it was hit by at least three drones, maybe more. Don't know why. The Russian side is weirdly silent about it too. There was one rumor, but it wasn't repeated by the reputable channels so I will discount it for the moment.

 

Is this the one?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HCCitF7z2Qs?feature=share

 

Apparently, there are videos (I have not yet seen one) where Russian soldiers were unloading something from trucks and storing this stuff inside the hypermarket. I guess they have to do it elsewhere now.

 

The rumor I heard was that this was turned into a large factory for final assembly of quadcopter / loitering drones of various kinds.

It really wouldn't make sense to attack a real supermarket because there are limited drones and the opportunity cost is large, and the people living there are people that Ukraine wants to bring back under their government eventually.

 

Ok, I found what I think you describe:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...inian_fp1_drones_struck_a_warehouse_in_sigma/

Clearly the market is no longer open as the parking lot is empty in the middle of the day. The soldiers were delivering water, and quite a lot of it. The water system in Donetsk does not work so there has to be something going on in there that requires drinking water from the military.

 

In this kind of a conflict, morale becomes everything. You might soon be the only
soldier manning 100m of trench. You need to *know* you're on the right side to not just get up and head home.

 

The videos of UAVs diving into people on motorcycles are the literal subjects of horror films in other times.

 

The well is not dry. Well, not in the sense that there isn't more males between the ages of 18 and 65. Russia doesn't particularly care about recruiting those with physical or mental disabilities either. As long as they are somewhat ambulatory, they can be sent in a meat wave.

What may be dry is the effectiveness of the bonuses in attracting men to volunteer to join the war. I can't remember the exact number, but I've heard that something like 50%-75% of casualties are being caused by drones/artillery right now. Given that fact, it likely means the soldiers that do survive the attack are either missing limbs, or have some degree of traumatic brain injuries and a lot have PTSD. Many of the regions used the war to shuttle off men that were a burden on society (criminals, mental and physical disabilities, drug addicts, etc), but are now finding out they are getting more men back from the war that are a burden on their communities.

 

I wonder how the cost of an fpv drone compares to the cost of a standard artillery shell or large mortar round.

 

Well, considering FPVs now have mortar rounds as their explosive device.. More. The benefit is that they are way more accurate. So, in theory, it takes less "rounds" per kill than a mortar/artillery barrage.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...ones-without-chinese-parts-and-at-lower-cost/

This article claims the locally produced FPVs are around $400 each, with the most expensive component being the thermal camera. That's nearing "cheaper than the pilot" (by fly time) range for any western military, and it's cheaper than 155mm artillery shells by an order of magnitude.

 

I wouldn't use 155mm artillery shells as the benchmark. Soviet era munitions are still the most common shells being used by Ukraine.

Also, while production of the drones is inexpensive, that likely does not include the cost of the explosive. Drones early in the war used RPGs and grenades as explosives, but have increasingly gotten larger as the war continued on. I believe they are currently using Soviet era mortar shells for the "standard" explosive with larger drone bombers using vehicle mines and Soviet era artillery shells. So maybe it is better to say drones are $400+the cost of the explosive they use.

 

True. You could say it costs about the same as an RPG launcher + a round (excluding the flight console).

The RPG-7 has shipped over 9 million units in a long and storied history. Ukraine is building 4 million FPVs this year.

 

Or 80's police sci-fi movies:



This movie was crazy ahead of its time.

 

In the Startrek series Discovery the main characters had to find clues and on one of those planets they were attacked by what we now recognize as sophisticated drones.

 

Ukraine launched multiple attacks on the Zaporizhia front, retaking 3 villages.

The news is less good around Pokrovsk. The Russians are desperately trying to take a mine at the outskirts of town, and the Ukrainians are desperately trying to keep them out. Control of the mine means control of the road into town, which means control of the town.

 

We should nationalize Starlink for national security

 

fewer rounds

 

I’ve been saying this for how many years? At least 3.

 

Dunno if he really is plotting, but hey ...give it a go

Russian secret service suspects former oligarch Khodorkovsky of planning a coup.
The Russian secret service FSB opened an investigation into Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He would be looking for a violent seizure of power in Russia.
Foreign Editors 14 October 2025, 10:57Last update: 12:05
The former oil tycoon has been living in exile since 2013 and has supported organizations that speak out against the Kremlin since his departure from Russia. Khodorkovsky would have set up a terrorist organization according to the FSB and is looking for a violent seizure of power.
It would be the Russian Anti-War Committee, supported by Khodorkovsky. This group of Russian exiles speaks out against the war in Ukraine and, among other things, helps Russians emigrate. The group was labeled an "undesirable organization" by the Kremlin in 2024 and thus effectively banned. Khodorkovsky himself was designated as a 'foreign agent' by Russia shortly after the start of the war. C, with an estimated fortune of 15 billion dollars at the time, was suspected at the beginning of this century to be the richest Russian. In the nineties, he managed to earn a lot of money from Siberian oil fields.

Fled to Switzerland
After setting up a foundation in 2001 dedicated to democracy and human rights, he was charged with fraud by the Russian authorities and the financial resources of his oil company Yukos were frozen. In 2005, he was sentenced to nine years in prison. When he received a presidential pardon in 2013, he immediately left for Switzerland

 

Doubtful he planning a coup. More likely the Kremlin will use this suspicion as an excuse to arrest oligarchs suspected of not being sufficiently loyal and more high profile undesirables.