Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

Source?”

 

The tweet didn't say. The image has clearly been resized, so it probably had any attribution clipped too.

 

Munich airport was shut down for seven hours because of drones.

Also, a swarm of 15 drones were spotted over Belgian military bases.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/1...ps63b3895sb90s76hy:3s742i6zrefmh&newUser=true

 

This night Ukrainian drones are attacking the Orsk refinery, 1400km from the front.

 

But I looked at warspotting.net and its data aligns with the graph I posted so I think its trustworthy.

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/internationa...-dans-le-donbass-en-ukraine_6644347_3210.html

French reporter Antoni Lallican killed by a drone in Donbass.

May he rest in peace.

 

Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery in Leningrad oblast was hit by drones. It was last attacked in the middle of September.

 

Russia's buckwheat crop is going to be terrible - probably the worst this century (which, to admit, is less impressive a statement than in my youth). Predictions are 32% less yield than last year, and there's no hope of importing because no one else in the world grows or eats large amounts of the stuff.

https://www-mk-ru.translate.goog/ec...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

This is the latest in a string of bad news. The sugar beet harvest is also terrible. With Russia's strong price controls, I expect black market selling and empty shelves.

 

I detest modern Russia's attempt to re-create the empire of the Soviet Union.

But not all aspects of returning to Soviet times is bad. I like seeing this:

 

Russia's gasoline situation is just getting worse. Despite not hitting many refineries for the last two weeks the shortages were and are still increasing, I assume because they're using up what they have in storage and now just have to depend on what the refineries make. There is at least 20% less production now than before the recent string of attacks. That means Russia has to use 20% less, either by raising the price or by having shortages or both. And there are hidden problems. People are wasting fuel to find more fuel. Some are hoarding, which doesn't really work with gasoline long term and just adds more demand at the moment.

They need to start making winter diesel as well, and they have 20% less refineries to do it.

 

The Kstovo Oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod was hit by Ukrainian drones. Multiple fires. This is one of Russia's largest, and it hasn't been hit too often.

On the other side, this night saw a very heavy drone and missile attack on Ukraine, aimed mostly at front line cities and the far west, especially Lviv. Sounds like it may have been an attempt to disrupt logistics, but as usual Russia has hit many civilian targets. A large non-military industrial park near Lviv was gutted by fire.

 

Large protests have been going on in Tbilisi, Georgia. Protesters say there were wide-scale voting irregularities by the Russia-friendly rulers of the country.

 

Ukraine hit a power substation in Belgorod, knocking out power for much of the city. Must suck for the city - getting bombed by both Russia and Ukraine, but they are a vital logistics hub for the Russian forces and this hurts multiple aspects of moving goods.

 

Looks like someone was interested in the effectiveness of the attack. Three Chinese spy satellites flew over Lviv last night.

https://militarnyi-com.translate.go...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Also, I was giving Russia to much of the benefit of the doubt about why they picked their targets. The attacks on Sumy were mostly aimed at the civilian natural gas infrastructure. They just want people to freeze this winter, not attack military logistics.

 

They have tried it in 2022, 2023, and 2024. I suspect the result will not be different this time.

 

Populist billionaire and Trump supporter Babis cruises to Czech election win
CNN International
2 days ago


Billionaire Andrej Babis's ANO party cruised to victory in the Czech Republic's parliamentary election on Saturday, raising the prospect of a government that would boost Europe's populist, anti-immigration camp and reduce support for Ukraine.

 

Ukraine hit the Tyumen oil refinery with two drones. This large refinery is about 2000km from the front, but to extend the range of their drones to this record distance Ukraine had to limit their warhead size and there doesn't seem to be a lot of damage.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/reco...the-cooling-tower-at-the-tyumen-oil-refinery/

In related news, the tank farm Ukraine hit in Feodosia on the east coast of Crimea three days ago is still burning. The black smoke cloud extends for 20km.

 

The Telegram rumors about Russia's gasoline situation are fun to read. Seems like the wholesale situation is a mess, where there isn't any gas to buy and when you do you often don't get it delivered. Independent gas stations get the worst of it, but even stations from oil companies have shortages. Things are getting worse, not better.

This is the planting season for a lot of crops, and diesel prices for farmers has more than doubled.

 

I'm reading things like Pootin distorting polulation stats, out of fear what the truth could trigger in Russia.
Anybody got insights in what his fear is?

 

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/concerns-mount-about-lost-generation-of-ukrainians-in-nl/

 

I feel like we should have a thread here called Goin’ Dutch, in which you let us know how world-historical events are impacting or impacted by the Netherlands.

 

Please let this become a reality!