Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

Yup, but that's not the calculus. Putin and the elite don't care if factory orders are unfilled. They care about remaining in power, because the alternative is expropriation, exile, and/or death. Putin will sacrifice 100 million Russians as long as he could rule the remnants.

 

Don't think Pootin needs to worry about dangers from within. He's too much a useful, lame duck idiot to Xi.

 

Now that Russia is no longer welcome anywhere, Putin is holding his own Eurovision Song Contest, without 'LGBTI nonsense'

By polishing up a Cold War singing competition, Russia is stepping up the fight for the preservation of 'traditional values'. No LGBTI expressions and outrageous performances like at the Eurovision Song Contest. Will that be a success?

Meanwhile, 23 countries have registered for the Intervision Song Contest, which takes place in Moscow on Saturday. Among them many (dictatorial) friends of Russia. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cuba, China and Venezuela, among others, have sent an artist.
Remarkably, the United States is also participating.

Oh dear.

 

Great Men of History aren't real.

 

Just send a squadron or two of F-35s to overfly St. Peterburg while breaking the sound barrier, thereby showing the Russian proles what Israel proved in Iran: that Russian air defences are garbage and can't even detect Nato 5th-generation aircraft, never mind down them.

Nothing like actually proving that the emperor (which is what tsar means) has no clothes to show his people that he doesn't

 

From war termination researcher Branislav Slantchev:

had they [Estonia] shot at the Russians, they would have been the first to imitate open hostilities. The Russians have plausible deniability and can always say their planes were on their way out after they got lost because Ukraine jammed their equipment.
Without ROE that specifie a NATO-agreed upon scenario in which shooting is authorized, Estonia would fear that NATO would not treat this as an Article V scenario, and now it’s given the Russians an excuse to retaliate. They — and all other countries bordering Russia — will not engage Russian jets without Article IV consultations and clear ROE.
Turkey didn’t care about this when they shot down the MiG but these countries all do.
In these sorts of deterrent situations, you have to establish ROEs that put the opponent in a position that if you are shooting at them, it’s because there’s little doubt that they are the aggressor.
I think this is what the consultations now will do: create a clear policy and communicate it to the Russians. These intrusions cannot go unchallenged or they will escalate.

Since I got a few responses to my “Estonia would not shoot down Russian jets” assertion that are variants of “they don’t have the capability,” let me elaborate.

Whether they have the capability or not is only relevant if Estonia would have done anything differently from what…

— Branislav Slantchev (@slantchev) September 19, 2025

 

As I posted, communicate in open daylight on tv that from now on intrusion is considered a hostile act and intruders will be shot down, no ifs or buts.
Edit: dunno if any of the Baltic states have F35's, but let the shooting down be done by the Dutch or any of the non-Baltic states guarding aerospace.
Oh, forgot intrusion of territorial waters, especially close to important infrastructure or military/naval bases.
Also communicate those will from now on be torpedoed.

 

Ukraine continues the deep strikes into Crimea. They took out three Mi-8 helicopters at a helicopter base and a Nebo-U (a long range low frequency radar). They also attacked a SAM site, but there are no details except that a fire resulted.

 

Last night Ukraine hit the Samara Line Operational Dispatch Station. This isn't a normal pipeline pump station, it's the place where various oils are combined into export grade oil. So it's not only a vital link in the chain for Russia exporting oil, the location has two massive tank farms with dozens of oil tanks. No details as to what was hit.

 

The latest videos seem to show it's one Mi-8 and two Be-12 amphibious aircraft which are commonly used to patrol the Black Sea to spot Ukrainian sea drones.

 

Ukraine's military says that a S-400 radar and launcher were destroyed in the attack.

 

The gasoline shortage in Russia isn't just affecting Russians. Kyrgyzstan gets 90% of their gas from Russia. Their prices have gone up a lot recently.

https://rus-azattyq-org.translate.g...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

As you probably know, three days ago three MiG-31 fighters flew through Estonian airspace without any transponder or communication.



NATO fighters went up to meet them, but as you see they flew a straight line so in no sense were they scared away.

In the last day Poland and now Sweden have made some stern notices warning Russia against violating their airspace. Russia is going to keep pushing NATO, but maybe they won't try this particular tactic anytime soon. It wouldn't be a good look to get their fighters shot down, and I don't think they have a path to escalate from that.

 

Do the Russians actually believe NATO threats at this point?

 

I think we will see in the next few days if those incursions continue and NATO does nothing. If a drone/plane enters and its put down by air defences I am pretty sure that Russia would not try again. Example Turkey.

 

Until Russians get punched they will never stop. or they will make some twists to their actions, so NATO can claim thet Russians had never done this specific thing before but if they do - oh, hold me back!...

 

The issue with punching the Russians for manned aircraft violating NATO airspace is that NATO airplanes violate Russia's airspace as well. There's obviously a difference between Russia flying Shaheds and Gerans over Poland, but for manned aircraft? I'm not sure that is a precedent that NATO wants to establish...

 

The UK joined in on the threats, but Rubio has just said that NATO won't do anything violent and the US is still the senior partner so that's probably that.

Besides, Russia has other ways to press NATO. Yesterday large drones were seen over Copenhagen and Oslo airports, forcing them to shut down while they were flying. They seem to have come from a cargo ship operated by Russians.

 

The Astrakhan gas condensation plant that produces around 3 million tons of gasoline and diesel per year (like a small refinery) has been shut down probably for the rest of the year by a drone attack.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ns-after-drone-attack-sources-say-2025-09-23/

 

Look, when a guy is right, he's right

 

Roger this

Reporter: “Do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace?”
Trump: “Yes, I do.”
Reporter: “Would the United States help them out in some way?”
Trump: “Depends on the circumstance, but we're very strong toward NATO.”
https://x.com /BulwarkOnline/status/1970550182358991078​

 

I had goldfish with better consistency and memory retention.

I am pretty sure his tune will change soon enough.