Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

Russia is now using fully autonomous drones. They fly using terrain mapping to an area and find targets on their own - there's nothing to jam, no cable to limit range. It seems they are mostly using these on civilian targets.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lpokbawwr22s

 

https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/21/trump-says-in-private-putin-isnt-ready-to-end-war/

Putin isn't winning. Putin can't win. Any territory acquired must be held by force against partisans, the Ukrainian military, and at the expense of propping up Belarus and Armenia.

This house of cards crumbles.

 

Hopefully, it spurs development of anti-drone technology. Ukrainians already have a series of drones that attack Russian drones, they just need more of them.

 

There exist small gun systems and laser systems, and Ukraine has been given some of them, but these have short range and they are still in the development stage so no large numbers. It's going to take a while for them to become useful.

 

The second half of 2024 saw the ruble weaken a lot until it approached 100 to the dollar. But since the new year it has been strengthening a lot - and I mean a lot. It's now less than 80 to the dollar.

 

The EU is raising tariffs on Russian fertilizer to 100% and Russian food to 50%. But slowly, in increments. They first step is this summer, and it will take over a year to get that high point.

 

The Russian federal budget is taking extreme cuts because energy exports are doing do badly. This means billions of rubles less for all sorts of heavy equipment and industry (things like new airplanes or ships, subsidies for auto and high tech, upgrading factory equipment, and cuts in all kinds of R&D).

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/05/...obvala-neftegazovih-dohodov-byudzheta-a164103

 

Russian losses are going down. The Ukrainian estimates have been less than a thousand a day for a while now. But Russia is also increasing the speed of taking over Ukrainian territory. Maybe something changed in their tactics - I don't know. They also seem to be massing for an attack on Kharkiv. We'll see this summer.

 

Rope a dope

 

I'm not saying that Belarus is expecting a food shortage this year, but Lukashenko is telling everyone to plant vegetables now so that they'll be able to afford them later this year.

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lpsnbpeo7c22

 

Not Russia, but North Korea. They had a booboo while getting ready to launch a newly completed missile destroyer. As they were positioning the ship to be slid into the water, it slipped off the keel blocks and seems to have cracked in half.

https://bsky.app/profile/alxluck.bsky.social/post/3lpqrris7ek2h

They tarped the crap out of the ship to hide the damage from satellites, but there is a notable bend where the ship hangs over the edge of the drydock.

https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social/post/3lpszh2gcks2h

 

Somebody is going to pay dearly for that

 

I think less a shortage than an opportunity for profit. Belarus heavily exports food so they have plenty, but Russia is struggling and the price of food there is skyrocketing. It's a seller's market and Belarus wants to sell while they can as much as they can.

There have been reports of shortages in stores, but that's because Russia is willing to pay more than Belarusian stores are. This is going to raise food prices in Belarus.

 

KAMAZ, the Russian heavy truck manufacturer, spent 2024 mostly being close to break even. But the first quarter of 2025 saw them lose 12 billion rubles.

https://bsky.app/profile/evgen-istrebin.bsky.social/post/3lpte4fccy22h

A similar story is going on for all heavy equipment manufacturers for construction, busses, and agriculture.

 

This is the first report I've seen on the change in Russian tactics. Russia has stopped doing the meat wave attacks and instead have an assault force that only goes far enough to locate and pin down the Ukrainian defenders. Drones are used to cut lines of communication so the Ukrainians cannot be resupplied and cannot retreat. Then the position is hammered with glide bombs.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lptvvay5c22g

 

Kyiv is being attacked by a unusually large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones tonight. Lots of explosions going on in the city.

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1925998447032668180.html

Assessment of the N Koreans by a Russian blogger. Apparently there are filters in the great wall of Russia so the guy calls them Northern Hobbits

I will make a TL: DR but it is worth reading. At first the N Koreans were bad. Their training didn't prepare them for a modern war and at first they were bad. They adapted, they are much better now, they don't surrender and there are no deserters. They don't distinguish between Russian and Ukrainian so there is still friendly fire going on plus and they steal form everyone including Russian .... yet the Russians are big fans

Oh they love candy, chocolate, movies and porn with foreign women

The minute they see an Internet antena they hop in the Internet

 

So like everyone else on the world

 

Russia uses train tracks that go through occupied Ukraine to supply the southern front. It's very efficient compared to trucks, and they can't use ships. Doesn't mean it's safe, though. A large train north east of Melitopol carrying many fuel tanks was spotted and hit multiple times by drones. Nice fire.

 

The attack last night was even bigger than this attack two nights ago, and hit more cities.

 

The Russian dark fleet ship MSC Elsa 3, a combination tanker, bulk carrier, and container ship, took on water off the coast of India and then sank. Lots of diesel in the water, and this isn't far from the famous and frequently visited beaches of Kerala.

 

Trump just said he's surprised by what Putin is doing right now and that he's changed.

Good Lord

 

There is talk among Z-bloggers of whether Russian AA knocked down their own plane while trying to defend a military airfield in Tver Oblast.