Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

I would not be worried about the Pacific War THAT much. Afterall, if US and China lock horns, we will see a much more different conflict. Imagine an effect a bunch of ballistic rockets would have on Russian force if Ukraine had an abundance of them. Same here. US Navy would not even get closer than 300 kilometers from any of the targets.

 

Actually the family member I mentioned months ago is busy developing for our defense ministry something like that, with a swarm of drones AI powered, operating in unity and also mobile "air fields" for launching swarms from anywhere in the battlefield.

 

Are you talking about the Czech's initiative? A solid, it depends. S. Korea is the only non-European country providing 155mm shells. The remainder of the Czech's initiative is Soviet era munitions and there are definitely non-European sources (well, specifically, non-EU sources) involved in that for sure. But that's largely because the EU countries switched to 155mm and don't really have that manufacturing ability.

 

What's the significans of the 300km range?

 

The difference is the fiber-optic connections. The swarm technology that Western companies are working on still rely on wireless communication of some manner (often satellite).

 

But that is a good comparison to if the US would stop providing "free/paid for" war materials. The Europeans can not produce most of that, so they would buy it from the US (or any alternative source outside of Europe).

 

??
Afaik these are fiber optic connected, either thetered or via RF, using fiber optics too.

 

I'm not sure how this will help since Russia has largely switched to using a shadow fleet that exists outside of Western shippers and insurers, the EU is reportedly going to propose that the G7 drop the current $60 price cap for Russian oil to $50.

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-push-g7-to-lower-russian-oil-price-cap-commissioner-says/

 

There is a big controversy going on in Ukraine right now as Maj. Oleksandr Shirshyn, the commander of the high-quality 1st Battalion, 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, has quit and made scathing criticisms over how the general staff is treating their units. He says they have little understanding of what the situation on the front is like, have a outmoded style of thinking of war, and micromanage how all units operate or even how they manage their personnel. He's gotten the support of other front line commanders.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/52952

 

This has been a common complaint in the Ukrainian unit commanders throughout the war. While the unit commanders have all been trained by NATO and have been given the unit up approach that NATO militaries use, Ukraine's generals are still the old guard that were trained in the Soviet doctrine. As a result, while the unit commanders are reporting up the chain of command what they are seeing on the ground and what they need, the Generals are either not getting the information, or they are not listening to the unit commanders recommendations.

 

It's worse than that, because while they might have old thinking they also have modern communications and computer maps with instant knowledge of where every squad is and will make orders to take particular treelines without knowing the actual situation on the ground.

 

Because even Trump is aware that if he pulls the plug on intel a) there'll be a shitstorm, b) that won't stop the Ukrainians from fighting and c) gets him precisely nothing in terms of deals, peace prizes, etc.

He's far more likely to just wander off and focus on the next laser pen dot that someone shines in front of his nose

 

A typical "holding statement" put out to prevent acknowledging failure, again. The good news is that with no mention of sanctions, they're almost certainly safe and so is intel sharing and weapons sales. The bad news is that he'll focus what limited attention he can muster on domestic "regime change", trade wars and trolling Canada/Denmark/Mexico/whoever closer to home. This bare minimum will continue and won't be exceeded but since going below it will require focus, discipline, hard work and the ability to count (congressional sanctions), going below it is unlikely.

There will be much more fighting to come and the EU may be dragged in, especially if the shadow fleet is seriously targeted, as well as endless talking about talks to arrange talks but an incoherent and erratic MAGA America is useless to all concerned: to Kyiv because it won't put real pressure on Moscow, to Brussels/Europe because MAGA means strategic unreliability and operational chaos in US security guarantees and to Moscow because Trump is incapable of compelling Brussels, never mind Kiev, to surrender.

Welcome to the post-American world beloved of a certain Canadian. It's not as attractive as he thought it would be.

 

The "holding statement". Putin wrapped the Felon around his little finger and nothing is happening.

 

As an example, the tweet from Trump posted above.

There was no large scale trade before the war and their certainly won't be after the war. The only thing Russia has are oil and gas and the US needs neither. In many ways the suitability of Russia as a trade partner hasn't changed since Soviet days. I'd say that any tweet from Trump that has all caps in it is bullshit but all of his tweets have something in all caps.

 

From Ben Wallace, former UK Defence Secretary

What happens next is the key question. Europe and Ukraine need to start preparing to go it alone. Nobody should buy the line that without the US, the Ukrainians are finished. They are not. They know how to fight. They know how to innovate. And the “vital” intelligence they get on the battlefield is not all American. It isn’t.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-before-his-deals-can-be-exposed-meaningless/​

 

Except the tweet about the Biden cancer news. That is how you know he didn't wrote it.

 

In a state under personalist rule, subordination of the national interest to the personal benefit of the ruler is the norm. In this case, the key issue is not whether the US will benefit from trade with Russia, but how the Trump family business will profit.

It's like Trump Tower deals around the world. In the tariff war, Vietnam got stiffed but not as badly as others and trade negotiations are ongoing for an improved deal. And what do you know? Don Jr. is in Hanoi negotiating a $1.5b real estate development including a golf course, hotel, and several residential areas over an area of 2,446 acres, or roughly 3.8 sq. miles. Expect the negotiations to go (relatively) well for Hanoi.

 

And I wish everyone would stop paying ridiculous amounts of attention to the Putin-Trump phone calls. They're just not that important.

The man who started the war and the man who fanboys the man who started the war cannot negotiate an end to the war just between the two of them. They need Ukraine for that and Ukraine has zero reason to fold.

 

People vilified this guy because he looted his country to the tune of billions and he was eventually forced out of his country. Who was to know he was a future model for America?

 

This was moved to May 19, and then everyone waited for something to happen and... nothing. No public statements, no radar tracks, no cell phone footage, nothing. Looks like some kind of failure scrubbed the launch.

https://kyivinsider.com/another-failed-icbm-launch-undermines-kremlins-nuclear-bluff/

 

A nation where their leaders and others loot billions so they can have dachas on the Black Sea doesn't have time for weapons maintenance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin's_Palace

 

The Center for Strategic & International Studies has a new report out. Among its most notable conclusions is that "weapons and support from contracts signed in the past three years will continue flowing to Ukraine for years to come. Continuing the transfer of systems already in the pipeline, allowing Europe to purchase U.S. weapons, permitting intelligence sharing, and a major effort by Europe to bolster production would make a U.S. cutoff more manageable for Ukraine."

Not a good situation by any means and certainly not with the Russian offensive building but it's a whole lot better than it looked like becoming back in January. As long as it stays that way . . .

https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-ukraine-fight-without-us-aid-seven-questions-ask

 

Gazpromneft, Russia's third largest oil producer, reported a loss of 21 billion rubles last quarter. Lukoil, the largest, saw its profits go down 82% compared to Q1 2024.

https://bsky.app/profile/evgen-istrebin.bsky.social/post/3lppeo7d3k227

Coal is doing worse. All coal mining companies in the Kuzbass are unprofitable, and the Kemerovo Oblast it resides in has had budget problems for a while now. They keep borrowing more money at 21% interest. Good luck with that.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1026851