Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

Russia has instituted a no-fly area around Kapustin Yar for May 12-13. It is almost certain this means they are going to launch another Oreshnik missile against Ukriane.

This isn't Russia saying they are serious about peace. This is Russia saying bend to our will or we will nuke you.

 

This won't make the headlines, of course, but when meeting Putin, Witkoff used an interpreter. No surprises there. Even when senior pols and diplomats speak each other's language(s), fluently, using interpreters buys you time to formulate your arguments more precisely while the interpreter picks up on nuances that you, as a decision-maker, will miss out on.

Well, the evidence is that Witkoff used an interpreter . . . provided by the Kremlin instead of using someone from the State Department or at least from the embassy. Putin feeds him a line of BS and Putin's hand-picked interpreter makes it sound as sweet as possible and Witless comes away thinking he's made progress. He's not being called Dim Philby for nothing.

NBC reports that, shockingly, during his latest Moscow pilgrimage Witkoff met with Putin and his two negotiators alone and without his own interpreter, relying - in breach of protocol - on a locally present one. https://t.co/nutD8D3knJ. However, this seems half the problem (1/n)

— ChristoGrozev@bsky.social (@christogrozev) May 10, 2025

 

A group of Russian stormtroopers, uninvited to the parade, held one of their own ahead of their impending deployment to the frontline.

Worth having a look at.

Russian assault troops, apparently not invited to the Kremlin parade, held their own march. Tomorrow, they’re back to storming. pic.twitter.com/KkCXaZJFh0

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 11, 2025

https://x.com /wartranslated/status/1921467972599599172​

 

In my wildest dream I would have not imaged the thing that will make Trump get annoyed at Putin is Putin not appreciating US lend lease during WW2

 

That suggests you don't understand Trump or Putin (or Russians). For Trump, it's all about bragging rights and primate dominance. For Putin, it's all about not only Russian greatness but also Russian uniqueness and how can Russia have been great or special if it couldn't even put its soldiers into uniform without 15 million pairs of Lend-Lease boots and 100 million yards of cotton cloth?

That's just from the USA. The Brits and the Canadians put in a sizeable amount on their own. The necrophilia of "the Great Patriotic War, the Immortal Regiment" is the legitimizing factor in the Putinist clique's right to rule. Bragging - accurately - that the USA was key to that victory strikes at the heart of his presidency and state in ways that nothing, not even Ukraine joining Nato and putting the HQ of its peacekeeping force in Rostov-on-the-Don ever would

 

May 1st 1941. Is it Berlin? No, Red Square.

Never forget

 

It's almost like the Soviets were tempted to join the Axis.

 

If Trump now falls for Putin’s bait-and-switch of talks without a ceasefire, he's rejecting his own plan and one whose details he'd agreed with Starmer, Macron, Mersk and Tusk to boot. With Zelensky calling Putin's bluff by agreeing to it - says he expects a full ceasefire on Monday and "I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday" - the optics this time will not be good for Trump at all.

Zelensky was fully on board, with Trump’s encouragement, and there will be no televised Oval Office showdown to pin the blame on him. On the contrary, the scripts write themselves: "the president is weak", he's embarrassing the country", "the Russians are eating our lunch!"

The opposition will be in the U.S, not just in Kyiv, London and Brussels. Further sales of Patriots, ATACMS, F-16 spare parts, indirect aid via Germany (artillery and more Patriot missiles) will be slowrolled but they will happen because undoing them means undoing what Trump himself put in motion and he can't have that

Not brilliant for Ukraine but not bad either. Not bad at all

 

It does look as if he's falling for Putin's trap of direct talks with no ceasefire. OTOH there's evident skepticism that it will produce results, coupled with a suggestion that whether a deal is possible is Ukraine's call and that the first response will be European with American backup. The contemptuous tone for Putin's parade is the cherry on top.

Sounds like someone frustrated and also bored and increasingly ready to walk. Meanwhile, the NYT is reporting sales of Patriot and HIMARS missiles, possibly ATACMS, are being readied

 

From Bloomberg UK's political editor

Source says European position hasn’t changed
— ceasefire still starts tomorrow
— Russia must agree
— Russia attacks tomorrow, expect strong Euro & US response incl sanctions agreed Saturday
— Trump post and Zelensky tweet don’t change what was agreed

Source says European position hasn’t changed

— ceasefire still starts tomorrow
— Russia must agree
— if Russia attacks from tomorrow expect strong European and US response including sanctions as agreed on Saturday
— Trump post and Zelensky tweet don’t change what was agreed

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) May 11, 2025

 

If any of the Euro leaders really wanted to play hardball, they could say if no ceasefire is agreed to, peacekeepers will be sent to protect the civilians in Kyiv.

 

A no-fly zone would be a lot quicker and cheaper while having a devastating effect on drone and most missile strikes

 

I would assume to have one you'd need the other.

 

From Andrei Kozyrev, emigre former Russian foreign minister:

Instead of a ceasefire, Putin proposes more “talks,” now with Ukraine. He relished every TV round with Washington’s envoy.
Will the West oblige and face humiliation again?
Talk, talk, talk only doubles his pleasure for war, war, war.​

 

And the starting point for the talks is where they broke off shortly after the war started and before Ukraine “won” the battle for Kyiv. Basically, Ukraine demilitarizes, adds neutrality to its constitution, Zelensky and his entire government resigns and is replaced by a Russia friendly one, etc, etc.

 

The larger context for America wanting peace in Ukraine is to bolster the fossil fuel future. They are holding talks with Russia about re-introducing gas shipments to Europe and that can't happen if there is still fighting.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...sian-gas-flows-europe-sources-say-2025-05-08/

What Trump wants is fossil fuel to be cheap enough to destroy alternative energy, and that can't happen if countries are bidding up US gas and not buying gas from all sources, including evil ones.

 

Last year there was a massive fire that consumed the Polish Marywilska shopping center, which housed over a thousand stores and stalls. The investigation concluded that it was started under the direction of the Russian intelligence services. The investigation connected this to other fires in Poland and Lithuania.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...enter-last-year/ar-AA1EzqwH?ocid=BingNewsVerp

 

Doesn't look like Russia is preparing for peace. They are building a new explosives factory in Siberia and expanding their Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan.

 

Wait till he finds out why we were supporting Stalin--to defeat Hitler! OMG Hitler is like his favorite person in the world how is he going to explain this to those "very fine people" dressed in white button-down shirts and khaki pants carrying torches.

 

International affairs is way harder to manipulate to your ends than domestic politics. So I think we are seeing the limits to trump's terrible attempts at appeasing and supporting Putin at Ukraine's expense. trump can't force Putin nor Zelensky nor Europe to do his bidding because their self interests are more important and urgent than any concerns about reactions from trump. trump is too timid and ignorant to fully utilize the most powerful military in the world and he doesn't have sufficient domestic support. With his attempts to destroy the economy and the democratic and civil structure of the country he's destroying the very foundation of what really makes America great.

 

Per Axios

Trump says he might travel to Turkey on Thursday to join the meeting between Putin and Zelensky

 

Trump says lotsa things!

 

Thanks for this article. An attempt at dividing the EU and weakening economic sanctions based on natural resource dependency and economic greed with the agents of Hungary and Slovakia and of course the US playing their role as Putin looks for easier wins against the West while he loses on the battlefield against Ukraine.

 

That would be epic to have those three together! but have Zelensky and Putin ever been in the same room together since the war started?

Also Erdogan, I guess.

 

Yeah I do wonder if Putin and Z-Dawg will actually both be there, or if it will just be their reps