Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

The Czech Republic is going to start combat testing in Ukraine a new cruise missile. Not much is known about the cruise missile, but given that Ukraine has been trying for ages to get Tomahawks and Tauruses, this could be a big development for Ukraine's ability to strike targets far behind Russian lines.

https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3m7ibj65ce22i

 

Insurance rates for ships in the Black Sea with Russian destinations have reportedly increased by 250% since Ukraine announced they will be targeting all Russian bound shipping.

https://archive.is/20251207154340/https://www.ft.com/content/b5962cf4-aec1-445e-805e-0122d43d67be

 

What an embarrassing way to die in service of one’s country.

 

Some more information on the Czech cruise missile, Narwahl. It reportedly has a 650km range.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m7ivrzfpfs2k

The map below is from November 2024 when the US gave Ukraine ATACMS. The map shows ATACMS 300km range, so if the 650km range is accurate, this would put a significant chunk of western Russia in range.

 

I thought atacms were ballistic missiles. Doesn’t Ukraine already have their own home grown cruise missiles (the variant of the Neptune iirc). Cruise missiles are much easier to shoot down, no? Is this a game changer for Ukraine or just an opportunity for the Czech Republic to test shit and Ukraine to get free shit to blow up Russians with.

 

ATACMS are ballistic missiles, but the US has a very limited quantity of them and, after that initial delivery last year, did not provide any more.

As far as cruise missiles being easier to shootdown... Yes, they are, but Russia has also shown they aren't very good at shooting them down. Storm Shadow/SCALP are cruise missiles that Ukraine has been using since 2023 and while they aren't 100% effective like they were initially, they are still effective and the ones that aren't effective are generally defeated by electronic deterrence rather than being shot down.

Additionally, the long range drones that Ukraine uses are basically cruise missiles and Ukraine still scores hits on targets deep inside Ukraine on a very regular basis

 

It happens. A US Air Force Captain who trained other pilots died last spring in an ejection accident. But this was nice because it removes two experienced pilots that Russia needs.

 

Indoors though?

 

No. He was taxiing on a runaway after a training flight and failed to fully insert a safety pin and accidentally pulled the trigger when he was unbuckling his safety harness. This resulted in the ejection seat being triggered and there wasn't enough time for his parachute to deploy before he landed head first on the runway.

 

Ejection accidents were more common in the early jet age before we had good safety practices, and that includes incidents indoors (usually with ground crew, not pilots).

The Russian incident can be considered an indirect Ukrainian kill, as Russia only built these hardened shelters to shield aircraft from drone attack.

 

We've all seen Top Gun.

 

Poland has confirmed that they are in discussions with Ukraine to exchange their Mig-29s for Ukraine's drone technology and tactics.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m7lcctwlwc2n

 

Video of Ukrainian drone boats hitting a Russian oil tanker in the black sea.

https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3m7nksenid22n

 

I'm surprised it isn't higher. The main reason people die by vending machine is because they rock the machine back and forth trying to get product out and the machine falls over and crushes them.

 

This is riding high in the water - I assume Ukraine targets empty ships to limit pollution in the Black Sea.

 

Not a surprise, really. Belgorod is barely 40km from the border and the frontline is only about 25-30km further on from there. Russian glide bombs have a range of about 70km and Ukrainian air defences can reach the border, so the Russians stopped crossing or even approaching the border about 3 years ago.

As for why they launch from Belgorod, the Russian armed forces aren't exactly famed for the rigour of their training and why should the air force be any different? "Navigation, comrade? Unnecessary. Just find a city by its lights and launch from there."

 

They're also targeting the flood-resistant stern and the rudder areas of these vessels rather than the midsections, which will disable those vessels permanently instead of sinking them.

IOW they a) don't want pollution in the Black Sea and b) want to leave a floating reminder of what can happen to them for any other vessels sailing to Russian ports.

 

How do you - or, more importantly, the Belgian govt. - know that? Germany or maybe France could afford to take that risk on their own. Belgium is simply too small for that.

While legal experts generally agree that the risk is not as high as de Wever makes it out to be, those self-same experts also agree that it's is not trivial and banks are, by design, risk-averse.

If you think they shouldn't be, does the name Lehman Brothers ring any bells?

 

Because the money is as it is commonly described: "frozen." If funds are frozen by sanctions, they have to stay where they were deposited when they were frozen. Belgium is so exposed because Euroclear is located there. Allowing it to be taken out of Belgium and sent to France or anywhere else probably exposes Belgium to the same degree of legal risk only via a different route.

There's also the possibility that it would expose the recipient country/counties to additional legal jeopardy of their own. The queue of receiving countries is not likely to be very long. Rather short in fact.

As any judge will tell you, the law and justice are not exactly the same thing. An Antonin Scalia might bend the law in extremis but breaking it outright is for the Thomases and Alitos. It's not something you want, ever. If the law is unjust, then change it. Then the judges can do justice, not before.

 

Car sales in Russia are down a quarter this year. Truck and heavy equipment sales are much worse. But it's not all bad news.

Russian purchases of luxury imported cars went up a lot. Twenty Bentley autos were bought by Russians in November alone, followed closely by Lamborghini.

https://www-kommersant-ru.translate...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Similarly, the daughter of one of the Russian generals conducting the war in Ukraine recently posted pictures of her vacation to all of the European tourist traps and how she's living the good life, while her father is making a comments about de-Nazifying Ukraine and threatening Europe with retaliation.