Ukraine vs Russia IV - The Betrayal

I sure hope they can hold Pokrovsk.

 

In the Dutch news today there was an item about long range drones being made over here by Destinus and delivered to Ukraine.
They showed the testing of the jet engines for those drones. Our PM some time ago talked with Zelenski about a conveyor belt of drones that should be put up to deliver to Ukraine.
I don't think Pootin likes what the owner of that Dutch factory said in the news, that they started not so long ago with a couple of dozens drones:
"In 2023, we produced our first drones and they were also deployed in Ukraine. That was about dozens then, now it is about thousands." And there should be even more. Commercial director Wouter van Beek prefers not to give a figure, but the company is aiming for a multiple.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2586473-dit-...waarmee-oekraine-doelen-diep-in-rusland-raakt

Quite an interesting article to translate if you're interested.

 

There was a similarly large armored attack on the Dobropillia (former) salient. For most of the summer the claimed casualties Ukraine has caused Russia have been roughly 800 a day, but in the last week it's been over 1000 a day. I wouldn't call this the big push, but Russia is increasing the tempo of their attacks.

 

Yeah, the general trend is once a city falls, they quickly lose a lot of land behind it too.

 

Hegseth spoke to the press at the Nato conference earlier today. His comments on Ukraine were rather pointed:

Now, if this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression. If we must take this step, the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do.
So let us seize this moment, strongly forge peace in Ukraine, and let's bring peace through strength. Thank you very much.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth:

European leaders are sending a clear message to Russia. Now is the time to end this tragic war, stop the needless bloodshed, and come to the peace table.
‼️Now, if this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the… pic.twitter.com/GAtvz279EU

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 15, 2025

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In a separate appearance with Rutte he was also bigging up the amount of weapons the Europeans are buying under the PURL structure. We'll see what difference this will make on the substance, but the change in tone is startling.

 

Nice but Donnie feels deep in his balls that Putey will come to his senses and stop fighting

 

The problem is... TACO. How many times has the US threatened Russia with *waves hand* whatever this is. I will believe it when the US actually does something.

 

It also loses some of its moral power when you are selling the weapons instead of giving them.

 

Ukraine is doing the final testing on a new kind of interceptor in France. The interesting thing is that it isn't just supposed to work on large drones, but on glide bombs too. If they can get that last part working, it would be a great benefit to Ukraine's chances.

 

I’ve wondered why anti-air missiles don’t work on glide bombs?

But yeah, if they can get an interceptor to take down glide.

Bombs, that would be a game changer for their ability to defend the front line. There’s not much you can do when a 1000kg bomb lands on your head.

 

You can, but because of the short range of the bomb and the relatively short time in the air the SAM launcher has to be fairly close to the target. Then it becomes a target. And it has to be a radar guided missile, as the bomb has no heat signature. So it's big and expensive and you can't have enough to cover the front.

If you can make something Toyota truck portable (or even man portable) with a self contained guidance, but cheap, then you can put them all over the front.

 

I'm drawing a blank on the name of the system, but I thought the US had a small anti-air system that could be mounted in the back of technicals.

 

Yes, but until recently they were all heat seeking. There are new laser guided weapons based on the cheap and ubiquitous Hydra rocket that are going to be the new standard anti-drone missile for ground, sea, and air launched systems in the US and NATO. By cheap I mean 1/10th the cost of a Sidewinder. There's actually some in Ukraine (and I mean first delivered just weeks ago) and they are first being used against Shahed drones but one actually shot down a Russian cruise missile a few days ago.

I don't know if this is related to the new Ukrainian system. They have not released even a hint about its mechanisms and capabilities, only that France was helping test.

 

If you want to see what the American companies are cooking related to this, look at the exhibits at the AUSA 2025 exhibition (which just ended yesterday). Don't think for a second we are ignoring how the Ukraine war is changing warfare. In some ways we are leapfrogging it.

 

Nice. I was just about to come back that it was the VAMPIRE that I was thinking about.



Although, this article is from 3 years ago, so I'm guessing it wasn't particularly effective if Ukraine is working on developing a new interceptor?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericte...-ukraine-turn-pickups-into-missile-launchers/

 

Russia's Ufaneftekhim refinery was attacked by drones yesterday. At least one, but probably two of its four processing units have been shut down.

 

Not only has St. Petersburg's sign-on bonus for Russians joining the invasion of Ukraine been reduced to zero, it has been done so retroactively to August 1.

Wow.

 

Cars made by Chinese company Geely are starting to break down in Russia after filling up with gasoline. Geely is saying the reason is because of the deteriorating quality of Russian gas due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries.

https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3m3dg2qaa4325

 

Speaking of sign-on bonuses and recruitment, "independent" Russian media is reporting that elderly Russian men are volunteering for the sign-on bonus and wages with the belief that they've lived a long enough life and that, even if they die, they can leave something behind for their families. Russians are also traveling to Moscow due to the higher salaries and sign-on bonuses paid in Moscow compared to other areas.

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:3w75iygkvtcrqvu4x4ux2hzv/post/3m3aocnxhys25

 

Russian commanders ordered an attack on an ammonia pipeline near Pokrovsk hoping it's destruction and release of toxic ammonia gas would allow them to conduct an assault and rescue trapped soldiers in the area... It did not work and the relief column was obliterated by Ukrainian drones and artillery well before they could reach the trapped troops.

https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3m3cuvbcsne2e

 

Ukraine deployed a new long range drone the other day that has a 1,600km range, a 45kg warhead, with AI and self-guidance.. You may recognize the shape of the drone.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3ctfqlo5s2v

 

The Urals standard price for a barrel of oil is $47.50, which is pretty much the EU price limit. It got there not because of EU action, but because of the fall of price of oil worldwide plus heavily increased transportation costs. It seems the countries still buying Russian oil want to minimize risk and want to only take the largest transports instead of multiple smaller ones. But there isn't enough supply of those ships and thus the cost increase.

 

Yesterday, Trump said that Modi told him that India would no longer purchase Russian oil.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/15/politics/modi-trump-india-importing-russian-oil

Today, India's Foreign Minister said that he is not aware of any discussions between Modi and Trump, let alone one where Modi would have told Trump they would stop purchasing Russian oil.

https://www.business-standard.com/e...and-russian-oil-purchases-125101601418_1.html

 

That shape actually has an interesting history. The Iranians took the shape from the Israeli IAI Harpy drone. For a long time I thought they invented it, but it turns out it was derived from a South African design created in the 1980's that was tested but never put into production. The West Germans were also testing something very similar at the time. So it's pretty ancient, as such things go.