Ukraine vs Russia III

Syrians are using the Ukraine drone playbook. Probably trained by Ukrainians. Great way to open a third front for Russia.

 

I think Ukraine is slowly shifting to a more advanced, more capable drone model that modern militaries will also be shifting towards. An expensive thing that hits is cheaper in the long run than an inexpensive thing that misses a lot. But cheap FPV drones will be the model for insurgent armies from now on. Or at least until AI drones become cheap and ubiquitous. Which shouldn't be too long.

 

Damn. I mean, I’m sure you’re right. But, damn.

 

The winter harvest in Russia is going to be terrible. Sugar beets are particularly hard hit, but everything is severely hurt. Russia is strongly restricting the exporting of grains.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/...it-rekordnaya-poterya-urozhaya-ozimih-a149495

 

They have support from Turkey and Turkey are great at drones. See eg Azerbaijan re Nagorno Karabakh in 2020.

 

Very significant if it happens. Without the Tartus port the AN-12s can't reach Africa unless a 3rd country agrees to refueling rights and cargo loading. It's just too far.

Russia will be, shall we say, "Out of Africa"



Eisenhower's dictum was "amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics." Putler is going to find that out soon enough

 

Turkey used to be the world leader at drones and its long-range stuff is still competitive, especially surveillance drones, but the Nagorno-Karabagh war was a long time ago technologically. Ukrainians are now far ahead on combat applications. Bayraktar stuff is big, expensive and something of a closed ecosystem.

The Syrians are using modified FPV drones in their attacks. Bayraktar offers limited expertise in that area and isn't responsive enough.

It's close ties to the Turkish state would also make them unsuitable for MİT's and Erdogan's purposes: no plausible deniability.

 

They'll debut by next summer I believe.

Suitable revenge for this

 

Sorry to be pedantic but to save @American Brummie from tearing his (remaining??) hair out, no, being "allowed to run parts of the state in return for blind loyalty" is not oligarchy.

Oligarchy is rule by the few, with an elite making the key decisions. Over time, decision-making is delegated to a president/prime minister, etc. who remains their agent. If enough of them become unhappy enough, he modifies his approach or he has problems.

In Russia, it's the so-called oligarchs that have problems and modify their approach. That's what qualifies it as an autocracy.

Which is why people have taken to calling the likes of Abramovich "wallets". In this context, it translates very well as "bagmen".

 

Among the oligarchs it will be a version of the normal people voting for the Leopards Eating Faces party. Each oligarch will believe that the state (Trump) may go after an oligarch but it won't be them.

 

Eh. Don't forget that South Korea was a dictatorship well into the 80s.

 

I read an article about the rise of Putin a while back. Perhaps someone linked it here. I have no idea if it was a reputable source or just some random posting stuff on the internet at this point. But The general message was much like you state here…in that Russia is not an oligarchy…it is a Mafia State…and Putin is the boss.

It went on to describe how Putin set this up. Early on his presidency he met with the various oligarchs who had hoovered up the resources of the Soviet Union when it collapsed. They all assumed this was going to be normal meeting with a normal corrupt politician where they’d have to kick up some bribes and be done with it. Putin…in essence…told them he wanted half. When they said half to the state? Are you kidding us? That’s when they learned they weren’t dealing with a typical corrupt politician. They were dealing with a cold blooded gangster with the power of the state behind him. The half was to Putin personally…and if they don’t cooperate…this wouldn’t be some stupid mafia war between gangsters. This would be the Russian state against you personally. He owns them. He is their power.

Go ahead…surround yourself with a thousand henchmen in your dacha and go against me. I won’t be coming to arrest you…I will be carpet bombing your dacha with air strikes. Wanna flee? Better not take a plane as ill SAM’s are loaded. Wanna go into hiding while losing all your assets? Well find you anywhere.

If you’ll recall…shortly before the invasion…Putin set up a made for tv forum where all of the “oligarchs” were brought into a room and were forced to publicly support Putin’s stance on Ukraine. This was a power play and a reminder by Putin. I own you. You’re in this with me whether you like it or not…and dissent means a rapid descent out of a window with a sudden stop at the end.

 

I thought it was government figures, not the out and out oligarchs. The guy who was shaking at the podium was actually the chief of one of the intelligence agencies.

 

I assume that they are using the tactics that proved successful in Kursk.

 

"Terrorist groups". Heh. I guess we can confirm the pictured account is pro-Russian.

If Ukraine helped any rebel groups, it would only be the Turkish aligned groups. Ukraine would never help the Kurdish groups as that would piss off Turkey and their European and US allies would be pissed off if they helped the Jihadis.

 

Good catch. Yes, that is possible. I also wonder about training the ISIS faction of the rebels.

 

ISIS would fall under the Jihadi group that would piss off Ukraine's European and US allies.

 

It looks like European, especially German, companies will developing the future of drone warfare. Or at least the high-end of it. They seem very willing to use Ukraine as a place to experiment, both with drones and counter-drone systems. Ukraine themselves are and will be for the foreseeable future the leaders in low-end of drone production.

 

A large amount of Syrian Army heavy armor was just abandoned on the road. Looks to me like they ran out of gas while retreating, which happens in a panic situation.

https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lchxzbnd5k2j